The Secret of China’s Silence on Iranian Oil: Denial of Expediency or Hidden Deal
The Secret of China’s Silence on Iranian Oil: Denial of Expediency or Hidden Deal
China’s ambiguous relations with Iran have drawn international observers’ attention since the military conflict between Iran and Israel began on June 13. A key point in this context is China’s role as the main buyer of Iranian oil. The United States government believes that Chinese buyers act as the economic lifeline for the Islamic Republic and play a significant role in maintaining Iran’s revenue flow.
While numerous reports from Western media indicate that nearly 90% of Iran’s oil exports are sent to China, Chinese official media have refrained from addressing this issue and have remained silent. This news absence in Chinese media has itself become one of the noteworthy aspects of Beijing-Tehran relations.
According to data published in international media, China is recognized as the largest importer of crude oil in the world. However, estimates about the share of Iranian oil in China’s total oil imports show differences. Various media reports estimate this share between 10% to 15%. Specifically, Reuters in one of its latest reports announced this figure to be about 13.6%. This discrepancy in estimates is expected due to the lack of full transparency in Iran’s oil transactions, especially because of sanctions evasion.
China’s Stance on Oil Imports from Iran: Realities and Ambiguities
Statements by Chinese officials regarding oil purchases from Iran have been very limited and cautious. Within the official framework, the Beijing government does not recognize any imports from Iran.
The reason for this stance is the unilateral sanctions imposed by the United States against Tehran, which China considers illegal and lacking international legitimacy.
Despite Iran being considered one of the main crude oil exporters to China, official statistics published by Chinese customs since July 2022 show no signs of direct oil imports from Iran. In fact, Beijing has not openly made purchases from Iran.
In 2024, Bloomberg reported that a large amount of Iranian crude oil enters China labeled as Malaysian oil. This transfer is carried out through a complex mechanism involving a network of old and unidentified tankers known as the shadow fleet.
These tankers deliver Iranian oil shipments to private refineries in northern China without being recorded in official systems. According to experts, this method allows the Chinese government to plausibly deny and avoid potential legal and political repercussions if necessary.
In response to direct questions from journalists about oil imports from Iran, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs has taken a passive stance and refrained from providing clear answers.
Five days ago, Guo Jiakun, the spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, in response to a question about Donald Trump’s statements claiming that China continues to buy oil from Tehran after the Iran-Israel ceasefire, merely stated that China will adopt policies to ensure energy security based on its national interests.
Three days later, when asked more explicitly whether China has officially started buying oil from Iran, the spokesperson repeated the same general and recurring response related to national interests.
This official had previously responded to Iran’s threat of potentially closing the strategic Strait of Hormuz with a general and trans-regional tone.
He emphasized that the Persian Gulf and its surrounding routes are important parts of the vital global energy trade routes, and ensuring the security of this region is in the common interest of all countries worldwide.
Chinese Media and Limited Coverage of Iranian Oil
Investigations conducted by the BBC Monitoring Unit since June 13 show that major state media in China, despite the increased tensions in the Persian Gulf, have remained silent about their role in importing oil from Iran.
During a period when Iran’s threat to close the Strait of Hormuz received significant global media coverage and oil prices experienced considerable fluctuations in international markets, Chinese official media focused more on global impacts and Iran’s internal conditions rather than direct consequences for China.
Chinese official media reiterated statistics that about 20% of the world’s oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz but refrained from mentioning how much of this oil reaches China. Only in one of the rare reports from a state newspaper was it quoted from a Western analyst that China receives a significant volume of oil from Iran.
In the few instances where oil trade was mentioned, usually Gulf countries were referenced, and Iran was not mentioned.
Additionally, in discussions examining the effects of this trade on China, China was mentioned alongside countries like Japan, India, and South Korea as Asian economies.
The nationalist newspaper Global Times also indirectly responded to this issue, accusing Western critics of exaggerating the potential threats arising from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz for China’s energy security.
This newspaper emphasized that China is prepared for such crises by diversifying its oil supply sources and strengthening its strategic reserves.
The international network CGTN, affiliated with the Chinese government, published several analytical programs about the role of the Strait of Hormuz in the global oil market, but none directly mentioned China.
Explicit Statements on Non-Governmental Platforms
The most explicit stance on China-Iran oil relations was expressed by Jin Canrong, a prominent academic analyst and writer for the analytical website Guancha. In a note, he wrote that any government in Iran, to meet its economic needs, is compelled to sell oil, and its real customer for now is China.
The Shadow Fleet and Teapot Refineries
Western media have focused heavily on the role of the shadow fleet, a collection of unidentified tankers that transport Iranian oil to small private refineries known as teapots. However, a review of articles from China’s main state media between June 13 and 25 shows that these terms are almost never used in their reports.
The only exception was an economic program on June 17 on China’s Central Television CCTV, where economic analyst Liu Ge mentioned that most of Iran’s oil exports are carried out through the shadow fleet, but he also refrained from mentioning China’s role.
He also warned that if the Strait of Hormuz is closed, Asian countries like China, Japan, South Korea, and India will suffer the most. However, he did not limit the cause to the reduction of Iranian oil, as other Gulf exporters also use the same route.
In another instance, one of Guancha’s blogs discussed the remarks of a Taiwanese political science professor in America, who sharply criticized Western strategic assumptions about China’s over-dependence on Iranian oil.
The Fate of the $400 Billion Agreement
The agreement known as the 25-year cooperation document between Iran and China, signed in 2021, has once again come under analysts’ scrutiny. This document is often described in Western media as a $400 billion agreement for China’s long-term investment in Iran’s infrastructure, but Beijing’s stance on this is also vague and cautious.
In the same year, when Chinese officials were asked about the details of this agreement, both the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Chinese ambassador in Tehran emphasized that there was no definite figure or specific contract, and what was signed was merely a general framework.
According to them, the document focuses on areas such as energy, technology, industry, and infrastructure.
This document has never been publicly released and remains confidential.
In recent weeks, amid the escalating Iran-Israel crisis, none of China’s official media have mentioned this agreement. Only some blogs on the Guancha platform have addressed this topic.
The most prominent view again belonged to Jin Canrong, who considered the agreement overly exaggerated in the online space, evaluating it not as a real contract but merely as a memorandum of understanding. He also added that China has not yet made any real investments based on this document.
In contrast, some other analysts consider the document real and even describe it as a key to revitalizing Iran’s economy. However, another group claims that the project has been suspended at the high decision-making levels in China.
