The sky turned combative; where did the mysterious projectile come from and why was it seen?
The sky turned combative; where did the mysterious projectile come from and why was it seen?
According to the Iran Gate News Agency, the sighting of luminous launches in the night sky over several provinces in Iran, including Golestan, Semnan, Khorasan Razavi, Isfahan, Tehran, and Yazd, sparked a wave of reactions, speculations, and security and technical analyses in the media and social networks.
This phenomenon, recorded on the evening of Tuesday, September 18, has not yet been met with an official response from Iranian military officials, but some local sources and military analysts have assessed it as a sign of a missile test or even an unsuccessful launch of a ballistic missile.
Simultaneously, some reports have also raised the possibility of the involvement of a Russian projectile from the north of the Caspian Sea, a possibility that remains shrouded in ambiguity.
The sighting of luminous launches in Iran’s sky raises speculations about a missile test or a Russian missile launch.
On the evening of September 18, the sighting of luminous launches in the sky over several Iranian provinces, including Golestan, Semnan, Khorasan Razavi, Isfahan, Mazandaran, Yazd, and Tehran, led to widespread reactions and speculations in social media and some media outlets.
Social media users, by posting videos and images of this phenomenon, attributed it to the launch of a ballistic missile or Iranian air defense rockets.
While the country’s military officials had not issued an official reaction by the time this report was published, local authorities in some provinces have provided explanations.
The political-security deputy of Golestan’s governorate announced that this phenomenon is related to the testing of domestic systems.
Simultaneously, the governor of Semnan also attributed its occurrence to the execution of missile tests within the country, and both officials emphasized that there is no cause for concern for citizens. They have promised that additional information will be announced subsequently if needed.
However, some domestic news websites, without referring to official sources, have attributed these launches to the testing of an advanced ballistic missile by the IRGC Aerospace Force.
Possibility of a missile launch from Russia
Alongside the scenarios proposed about domestic missile testing, some foreign media and a few domestic sources have speculated that this projectile might be related to the testing of a Russian intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launched from the Kapustin Yar base in the Astrakhan province, located north of the Caspian Sea.
However, this possibility has not been officially confirmed yet.
The trail of the projectile and technical signs in the images
The published images show a clear trail of a projectile accelerating. The path of this projectile is marked by a white column in the sky, which then turns into a trail of small white dots resembling clouds and then returns to a white and flaming trail.
However, the flames are accompanied by irregular flickers and vibrations.
Fabian Hinz, a missile and air defense researcher from the International Institute for Strategic Studies, analyzing these images, believes that the flight pattern and existing signs likely indicate a ballistic missile test experiencing a technical malfunction.
He states that these regular interruptions and the flickering of flames are indicative of an engine problem, which usually occurs in missiles with liquid propellant engines.
Liquid or solid propellant: an important difference in identifying the type of missile
Liquid propellant engines use a separate combination of oxidizer and reducer materials, which, in case of a technical malfunction, may turn on and off intermittently.
In contrast, solid-fuel engines, used in most modern rockets and air defenses, burn the fuel continuously once ignited and, in case of malfunction, usually result in an explosion or separation of parts like the nozzle.
Based on this analysis, Hinz believes that what is seen in the images is likely a ballistic missile with a liquid propellant engine that did not function correctly due to a technical malfunction.
The range of observation and the flight pattern of the projectile
One notable point about this event is the wide geographical range over which this projectile was visible. Media reports indicate that this phenomenon was observed in the sky over multiple provinces, including Golestan, Mazandaran, Khorasan Razavi, Semnan, Isfahan, Yazd, and Tehran.
Ballistic missiles, especially long-range types, fly at high altitudes and on an arcing trajectory. In the second stage of flight, they reach speeds exceeding 24,000 kilometers per hour and even exit the Earth’s atmosphere, returning to the ground at supersonic speeds.
Hinz adds that due to the high altitude of flight, such projectiles can be seen from very long distances, just as SpaceX launches in the United States or Israeli missile launches are visible from distant points.
However, due to the lack of more details in the available images, the exact type of missile and the source of its launch are still indeterminable. Additionally, determining the launch location is not possible without knowing the missile’s precise range.
Military context and the background of Iran’s launches
This incident occurs in a context where Iran recently used multiple ballistic missiles against Israel during the 12-day war.
According to official announcements, the Khorramshahr and Fatah-1 missiles were among the weapons used in these attacks.
Despite Israel’s advanced defense systems, some of Iran’s missiles hit their targets on Israeli soil. In contrast, the Israeli Air Force also responded to Iranian defense targets in several locations.
The IRGC Aerospace Force produces a diverse range of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and tactical rockets.
In the past decade, Iran has repeatedly used these weapons in cross-border attacks, including attacks on ISIS positions in Syria, U.S. bases in Iraq, and the Kurdistan region, positions of Kurdish opposition groups in the Kurdistan region of Iraq, Jaish al-Adl positions in Pakistan, and targets in Israeli territory.
Regional and international concerns
Iran’s missile program has always been a focal point of Western concern, not only due to its technological advancements but also because of the transfer of technology and weapons to proxy groups in the region.
While Iran’s allies such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas have been weakened in recent years, some analysts believe that Yemen has now become one of the main centers for utilizing Iranian missiles, and this country or its supported groups use these weapons to attack Israel and oil tankers in the Red Sea.
