The U.S. Rejects the JCPOA
Is the U.S. response to Iran’s proposed package positive or negative? American journalist Lara Rosen, in her latest analysis, has written that sources say the U.S. has probably made its decision regarding Iran’s response to the EU’s draft for reviving the JCPOA but is consulting with its allies, including the three European countries and Israel. She previously quoted Ali Vaez saying, ‘I doubt that the U.S.’s response to Iran’s demands will be a yes. It’s likely that the U.S. response will be a no or something in between. If Iran continues to have more demands, I don’t know how this process can continue.’
Recent news has leaned more towards a negative U.S. reaction rather than a positive one. Iran has provided its response to the European initiative for finalizing the Vienna agreement, expecting the U.S. to say yes to this plan by Wednesday. However, it is said that not only has the West not approved this plan, but now American media warn that the agreement might not come to fruition.
The Achilles’ Heel of Congress
The U.S. midterm elections in November are approaching, and the Biden administration’s main focus is currently and certainly on winning these elections. Anything that might jeopardize this victory will not be overlooked. The media affiliated with Israel has so far tried to disseminate information suggesting that Biden and the Democratic government have given many concessions to Iran.
Events in the past week in the U.S., although not directly related to Iran’s nuclear issue, had significant repercussions that could lead to increased pressure on Iran. From the news of the assassination attempt on John Bolton to the attack on Salman Rushdie, these incidents have led to the voices of opponents of the nuclear agreement with Iran in the U.S., especially the Israeli lobby, becoming louder again.
Critics of the agreement with Iran have long been discouraging U.S. leaders in Congress from any agreement with Iran. This lobby has the potential to defeat the Democrats in the elections. Perhaps this is why Lara Rosen mentioned in her writing that the Biden administration is consulting with its allies, including Israel.
The Axios news outlet, quoting American officials, wrote that President Joe Biden’s administration has tried in recent days to assure Israel that no new concessions have been given to Iran. Axios, quoting a source in the White House whose identity was not disclosed, added that the agreement might be closer than two weeks ago, but some gaps still exist. Axios had previously reported that Yair Lapid, the Prime Minister of the Israeli regime, claimed in a message to the White House that the draft agreement presented by the EU to Iran had crossed the Biden administration’s red lines.
Suspension is to Iran’s Detriment
There is a possibility that if Biden feels the agreement endangers his position in the upcoming elections, he might not just give a negative answer but keep the agreement suspended, playing for time until the elections are resolved. But is this suspension beneficial for Iran? Certainly not. Given the rapid pace of developments on the international stage and that the stakeholders in the agreement are not limited to Iran and the U.S., any change in situation can impact the future of the agreement. For example, Russia is one of the main players in this arena.
Incidents like the assassination attempt on Alexander Dugin, who is considered an ideologue of the Putin government, resulting in the death of his daughter, can increase the level of tension in international relations. Since Iran defines itself within the Eastern bloc and as an ally of Russia, it naturally will not be immune to the impact of international developments stemming from this assassination or similar events in the Russia-West relationship.
Any delay or suspension in the agreement can alter both the priorities of the international system and Iran’s opportunities. If viewed pessimistically, it could lead to the failure of the negotiations, especially as it seems the timeframe for reaching an agreement has fully matured, and the time for making a big decision has arrived.
