Turkey’s Role in the End of Bashar al-Assad
Turkey’s Role in the End of Bashar al-Assad
The Syrian crisis, which began in 2011, ultimately ended with the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, creating a major shift in regional and international policies.
In this context, Turkey is recognized as one of the main players in Syria’s political and military developments.
Using various military, political, and diplomatic strategies, Turkey played a prominent role in pressuring the Syrian government to step down. This note examines Turkey’s strategies aimed at the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government and the key developments in this area.
1. From Political Support to Military Support: Turkey’s Role in the Early Years of the Crisis
At the beginning of the Syrian crisis, especially after the start of popular protests against Bashar al-Assad, Turkey quickly declared its support for opposition groups. The Turkish government initially believed that the fall of Bashar al-Assad could help stabilize democracy in Syria and create a new regional order.
At this stage, Turkey widely supported moderate opposition groups and the Free Syrian Army (FSA). This support included providing weapons, military training, and safe havens at Turkey’s borders.
Although Turkey managed to establish its presence among opposition groups, the situation became more complex than initially anticipated.
Iran and Russia actively supported Bashar al-Assad’s regime, forcing Turkey to reconsider its strategies.
2. Turkey’s Military Actions: Border Operations and Confrontation with Kurdish Forces
One of the most significant aspects of Turkey’s intervention in the Syrian crisis has been its military actions in northern Syria and its confrontation with Kurdish forces. Turkey, which links its security to threats existing at its southern borders, has always been highly sensitive to the presence of Syrian Kurdish groups, especially those affiliated with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).
In this regard, Turkey has continuously launched military operations in the border areas of Syria.
a. Security Threats from Kurdish Forces
The Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which has been engaged in conflict with the Turkish government for decades, is one of the groups Turkey considers a direct threat to its national security. Turkey believes that Syrian Kurdish groups like the People’s Protection Units (YPG) and the Democratic Union Party (PYD) are ideologically linked to the PKK.
Given that Kurds had influence in northern Syria, especially in areas like Afrin, Manbij, and northern Hasakah, Turkey constantly felt threatened.
Turkey was particularly concerned that the empowerment of Kurds in northern Syria could lead to the formation of a Kurdish corridor from northern Iraq to northern Syria and even to southern Turkey.
Turkey believed that this corridor could potentially help create an independent Kurdish state in the future, which would be dangerous for Turkey’s national security.
b. Operation Euphrates Shield 2016: The Beginning of Turkey’s Military Presence in Northern Syria
Turkey’s first significant operation in Syria after the crisis began in 2011 was Operation Euphrates Shield, which started in August 2016. The main goal of this operation was to defeat ISIS in northern Syria and prevent the expansion of Kurdish forces’ influence.
Turkey intended to create a safe zone along its southern borders to limit the presence of Kurds in these areas while also driving ISIS out of regions traditionally controlled by this terrorist group.
In this operation, Turkey also supported the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and other opposition groups against Bashar al-Assad.
This operation led to major changes in the region’s geography but also caused significant tensions with the Kurds and their allies, including the United States. Although Turkey and the United States agreed on fighting ISIS, Turkey was dissatisfied with the Kurds’ presence in the fight against ISIS, and these disagreements increased tensions.
c. Operation Olive Branch 2018: Direct Confrontation with the YPG
One of Turkey’s largest operations in northern Syria was Operation Olive Branch, which began in January 2018. The aim of this operation was to reclaim the Afrin region from Kurdish forces of the People’s Protection Units (YPG). Turkey wanted to prevent the creation of a Kurdish corridor along its borders and also strengthen its position in northern Syria.
This operation, one of Turkey’s bloodiest military operations in Syria, was carried out with strong support from the Free Syrian Army (FSA). Turkey succeeded in taking Afrin from the Kurds, but this victory came at the cost of heavy casualties and increased international pressure on Turkey.
Many international observers, especially Western countries, considered Turkey’s action in attacking Afrin a violation of human rights, leading to significant protests.
d. Operation Peace Spring 2019: Targeting Northeast Syria
Operation Peace Spring began in October 2019, aiming to eliminate threats from Kurdish forces east of the Euphrates River and create a safe zone for the return of Syrian refugees to the country.
This operation was one of Turkey’s largest and most controversial actions in Syria, involving military operations particularly in the Manbij and Tal Abyad areas.
In this operation, Turkey specifically targeted the People’s Protection Units (YPG), which it considered a major part of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). This group had received significant support from the United States in the fight against ISIS.
However, Turkey believed these groups were a threat to its national security and needed to be driven out of Turkey’s southern borders.
Operation Peace Spring faced severe criticism from the international community. After Turkey decided to launch the operation, the United States withdrew its forces from northern Syria, leading to significant regional changes and increased tensions in Turkey-U.S. relations.
e. Impacts and Consequences of Turkey’s Operations
Turkey’s military actions in northern Syria, particularly in countering Kurdish forces, have had numerous consequences for Syria’s developments and Turkey’s relations with other countries. These operations
weakened Kurdish groups: Turkey’s multiple operations significantly reduced the influence of Syrian Kurdish groups in northern Syria, effectively preventing the formation of a Kurdish region along its southern borders.
increased diplomatic tensions: These actions heightened tensions with Western countries, particularly the United States, as many Kurdish groups were supported by the U.S. in the fight against ISIS.
created international dissatisfaction: Turkey’s attacks on areas controlled by Kurds and harm to civilians sparked numerous international protests. Many human rights organizations considered Turkey’s military operations a violation of human rights.
gained more control over northern Syria: Through these operations, Turkey effectively took control of parts of northern Syria and attempted to establish these areas as safe zones for the return of Syrian refugees.
3. Turkey’s Policies in the International Diplomatic Arena
Turkey has not only directly confronted Bashar al-Assad and his allies on the battlefield but has also supported the weakening of the Syrian government in the international diplomatic arena. This country, especially in international organizations like the United Nations Security Council and the Arab League, has consistently advocated for sanctions against the Bashar al-Assad regime and support for opposition groups.
Turkey has extensively sought to create international pressure on the Syrian regime. This pressure has included economic and political sanctions against the Syrian government, support for opposition groups in peace negotiations, and collaboration with Western countries to impose these sanctions.
4. The Astana Negotiations Process and Relations with Russia and Iran
One of Turkey’s major challenges in its efforts to bring down Bashar al-Assad’s regime has been the complex relations with other regional and global players like Russia and Iran. These two countries have been the main supporters of Bashar al-Assad’s government throughout the Syrian civil war, making cooperation with them difficult for Turkey.
Turkey, Russia, and Iran, in the framework of the Astana process, have tried to find diplomatic solutions for the Syrian crisis. While Turkey has consistently emphasized the necessity of regime change in Syria, Russia and Iran aim to preserve Bashar al-Assad’s government. This clash of interests in the Astana negotiations has forced Turkey to compromise with Russia and Iran in many cases.
5. Recent Developments and the Fall of Bashar al-Assad’s Regime
Over time, Turkey transformed from an active supporter of Bashar al-Assad’s opponents to a major player in Syria’s political and military processes.
Turkey’s policies, especially military operations in northern Syria and diplomatic pressure against the Bashar al-Assad regime, helped weaken the regime’s power.
Ultimately, after years of conflict and support for opposition groups, the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime became a reality. Bashar al-Assad’s government could not withstand the internal and external pressures.
One of the factors that accelerated Assad’s downfall was the growth of domestic dissatisfaction and the weakening of state infrastructures. Alongside this, Turkey, with the cooperation of other international players, played a significant role in ending Assad’s era.
The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, an ophthalmologist who sought to implement reforms in Syria, marks a turning point in the Syrian crisis and in Turkey’s regional policies. Using various military, diplomatic, and economic tools, Turkey played a key role in these developments.
