Turkey’s Role in the End of Bashar al-Assad
Turkey’s Role in the End of Bashar al-Assad
The Syrian crisis, which began in 2011, ultimately ended with the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, creating a major shift in regional and international policies.
During this period, Turkey was recognized as one of the main players in Syria’s political and military developments.
Turkey played a prominent role in pressuring the Syrian government to step down by employing various military, political, and diplomatic strategies. This note examines Turkey’s strategies aimed at the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government and the key developments in this context.
1. From Political Support to Military Support: Turkey’s Role in the Early Years of the Crisis
At the onset of the Syrian crisis, especially after the start of popular protests against Bashar al-Assad, Turkey quickly declared its support for opposition groups. Initially, the Turkish government believed that the fall of Bashar al-Assad could help stabilize democracy in Syria and create a new regional order.
In this phase, Turkey extensively supported moderate opposition groups and the Free Syrian Army (FSA). This support included providing weapons, military training, and safe havens at Turkey’s borders.
Although Turkey managed to establish its presence among the opposition groups, the situation became more complex than initially anticipated.
Iran and Russia actively supported Bashar al-Assad’s government, forcing Turkey to reconsider its strategies.
2. Turkey’s Military Actions: Border Operations and Confrontation with Kurdish Forces
One of the most significant aspects of Turkey’s involvement in the Syrian crisis has been its military actions in northern Syria and its confrontation with Kurdish forces. Turkey, which links its security to threats along its southern borders, has always been highly sensitive to the presence of Syrian Kurdish groups, especially those affiliated with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).
In this regard, Turkey has continuously launched military operations in the border regions of Syria.
a. Security Threats from Kurdish Forces
The Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which has been engaged in a conflict with the Turkish government for decades, is one of the groups that Turkey considers a direct threat to its national security. Turkey believes that Syrian Kurdish groups like the People’s Protection Units (YPG) and the Democratic Union Party (PYD) are ideologically affiliated with the PKK.
Given that the Kurds had influence in northern Syria, particularly in areas like Afrin, Manbij, and northern Hasakah, Turkey constantly felt threatened.
Turkey was especially concerned that the empowerment of the Kurds in northern Syria could lead to the formation of a Kurdish corridor from northern Iraq to northern Syria and even to southern Turkey.
Turkey believed that this corridor could potentially contribute to the creation of an independent Kurdish state in the future, which would be dangerous for Turkey’s national security.
b. Operation Euphrates Shield 2016: The Start of Turkey’s Military Presence in Northern Syria
Turkey’s first major operation in Syria after the crisis began in 2011 was Operation Euphrates Shield, which started in August 2016. The main goal of this operation was to defeat ISIS in northern Syria and prevent the expansion of Kurdish forces’ influence.
Turkey intended to create a safe zone along its southern borders to limit the presence of Kurds in these areas while also driving ISIS out of regions traditionally controlled by this terrorist group.
In this operation, Turkey also supported the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and other opposition groups against Bashar al-Assad.
This operation led to significant changes in the region’s geography but also caused substantial tensions with the Kurds and their allies, including the United States. While Turkey and the United States agreed on fighting ISIS, Turkey was dissatisfied with the Kurds’ presence in the fight against ISIS, and these differences increased tensions.
c. Operation Olive Branch 2018: Direct Confrontation with the YPG
One of Turkey’s largest operations in northern Syria was Operation Olive Branch, which began in January 2018. The goal of this operation was to reclaim the Afrin region from the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG). Turkey wanted to prevent the creation of a Kurdish corridor along its borders and also strengthen its position in northern Syria.
This operation, one of Turkey’s bloodiest military operations in Syria, was carried out with strong support from the Free Syrian Army (FSA). Turkey succeeded in taking Afrin from the Kurds, but this victory came at the cost of heavy casualties and increased international pressure on Turkey.
Many international observers, especially Western countries, considered Turkey’s attack on Afrin a violation of human rights, sparking numerous protests.
d. Operation Peace Spring 2019: Targeting Northeastern Syria
Operation Peace Spring began in October 2019, aiming to eliminate threats from Kurdish forces east of the Euphrates River and create a safe zone for the return of Syrian refugees to the country.
This operation was one of Turkey’s largest and most controversial actions in Syria, with the Turkish army conducting military operations, particularly in areas like Manbij and Tal Abyad.
In this operation, Turkey specifically targeted the People’s Protection Units (YPG), which it considered a major part of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). This group received significant support from the United States in the fight against ISIS.
However, Turkey believed that these groups posed a threat to its national security and needed to be driven out of Turkey’s southern borders.
Operation Peace Spring faced severe criticism from the international community. After Turkey’s decision to launch the operation, the United States withdrew its forces from northern Syria, leading to major changes in regional developments and increased tensions in Turkey-US relations.
e. Impacts and Consequences of Turkey’s Operations
Turkey’s military actions in northern Syria, especially against Kurdish forces, have had numerous consequences for Syrian developments and Turkey’s relations with other countries. These operations
weakened Kurdish groups. Through multiple operations, Turkey significantly reduced the influence of Syrian Kurdish groups in northern Syria, effectively preventing the formation of a Kurdish region along its southern borders.
Diplomatic Tensions: These actions increased tensions with Western countries, especially the United States, as many Kurdish groups were supported by the US in the fight against ISIS.
Creating Dissatisfaction in the International Community: Turkey’s attacks on Kurdish-controlled areas and harm to civilians sparked numerous protests internationally. Many human rights organizations considered Turkey’s military operations a violation of human rights.
Greater Control over Northern Syria: Through these operations, Turkey effectively took control of parts of northern Syria and sought to establish these areas as safe zones for the return of Syrian refugees.
3. Turkey’s Policies in the International Diplomatic Arena
Turkey not only directly confronted Bashar al-Assad and his allies on the battlefield but also supported weakening the Syrian government in the international diplomatic arena. This country, especially in international organizations like the United Nations Security Council and the Arab League, has consistently advocated for sanctions against Bashar al-Assad’s regime and supported opposition groups.
Turkey has made extensive efforts to create international pressure on the Syrian regime. These pressures include economic and political sanctions against the Syrian government, support for opposition groups in peace talks, and cooperation with Western countries to enforce these sanctions.
4. The Astana Negotiation Process and Relations with Russia and Iran
One of Turkey’s significant challenges in its efforts to overthrow Bashar al-Assad’s government has been the complex relations with other regional and global players like Russia and Iran. These two countries have been the main supporters of Bashar al-Assad’s government during the Syrian civil war, making cooperation with them difficult for Turkey.
Turkey, Russia, and Iran, within the framework of the Astana process, tried to find diplomatic solutions to the Syrian crisis. While Turkey consistently emphasized the necessity of regime change in Syria, Russia and Iran sought to preserve Bashar al-Assad’s government. This conflict of interest in the Astana negotiations has forced Turkey to compromise with Russia and Iran in many cases.
5. Recent Developments and the Fall of Bashar al-Assad’s Government
Over time, Turkey transformed from an active supporter of Bashar al-Assad’s opponents to a key player in Syria’s political and military processes.
Turkey’s policies, especially military operations in northern Syria and diplomatic pressures against Bashar al-Assad’s regime, helped weaken this regime’s power.
Finally, after years of conflict and support for opposition groups, the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government became a reality. Bashar al-Assad’s government could not withstand internal and external pressures.
One of the factors that accelerated Assad’s fall was the growth of internal discontent and the weakening of governmental infrastructures. Alongside this, Turkey, with the cooperation of other international players, played a significant role in ending Assad’s era.
The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government, an ophthalmologist who sought to implement reforms in Syria, marks a turning point in the Syrian crisis and Turkey’s regional policies. Turkey, using various military, diplomatic, and economic tools, was able to play a key role in these developments.
