Two Possible Scenarios of Iran’s Attack on Israel

Two possible scenarios of Iran’s attack on Israel

Among Middle East observers in Washington, two scenarios are emerging for Iran’s expected retaliatory attack against Israel this week. Retired American military officer Mark Montgomery, who previously served as the political director of the Senate Armed Services Committee, says Iran is unlikely to repeat the attacks it carried out on April 13 against Israel. Those attacks relied heavily on drones and some missile launches, which were quickly repelled by the United States, Israel, and neighboring armies.

Montgomery, who is now a senior researcher at the conservative Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, added that the drone and missile threat was significantly reduced by the US Air Force and other countries before reaching Jordan’s airspace, right on the border of Israel, and Israel managed the rest of it.

Montgomery expects the option of an attack from Iranian soil to remain on the table. He speculates that Iran may use short-range ballistic missiles and cruise missiles against Israeli targets. Iran has announced retaliation for the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last week and evidence indicates that attacks will happen soon. President Joe Biden has convened his National Security team, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his cabinet are also prepared.

The second scenario involves missile attacks mainly by proxy forces in Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq, giving Israel and its allies minimal time to anticipate and neutralize these targets.

Jonathan Ruhe, who directs foreign policy work at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America, told NatSec Daily that such attacks are designed to disrupt Israel’s air defense systems and reduce the Israeli army’s response time.

He said Iran is trying to find a way to impose real and tangible costs on Israel to compel it to stop targeting Hezbollah’s goals or halt actions like the assassination of Fakhrizadeh in Tehran.

Tehran has not yet shown much indication of what its desired punishment for Israel would be. He hinted that Tehran’s signals in April gave Israelis enough time to respond and believes Iran will not seek to repeat that mistake.

The United States has assured that Israel will be able to deflect whatever Iran throws its way in the coming days.

John Finer, Deputy National Security Advisor to the US, said on Monday that Israel faced an extraordinary threat on April 13, and the United States and other partners and allies gathered to help Israel defend against and defeat this threat.

The United States expects regional partners to come to Israel’s aid again against threats from Tehran, but this assistance may not be as public as on April 13 when the armies of Jordan and Saudi Arabia shot down drones, partly due to the region’s disillusionment with Israel over the assassination of Fakhrizadeh and the possibility that this attack is designed to be out of range of their air defense missiles.

It is also unclear whether there is a diplomatic solution at this stage. Adam Smith, a senior member of the House Armed Services Committee, told CNN from Washington that officials have made efforts for peace and stability and to prevent excessive reactions, while ensuring that there is enough military presence in the region to support Israel, protect American forces, and persuade Iran and its proxy forces not to escalate tensions. However, Smith admitted that this situation is very concerning with a high risk of miscalculation.