Waiting for Zero Hour
Iran and Israel: The Netanyahu Variable
Awaiting zero hour after Iran’s attack, Israel’s allies urge the Jewish state to remain calm and aim for de-escalation, but everything hinges on an unpredictable variable: Benjamin Netanyahu.
Iran’s attack on Israel on Saturday night garnered support for Tel Aviv from major world leaders, but they immediately urged Israel to exercise restraint. This unusual reaction from Iran reflects the exceptional nature of an operation that observers and analysts still disagree on.
Iran’s choice to launch a direct attack with missiles and drones from its own territory, without relying on countries closer to Israel like Syria, allowed Tel Aviv to intercept and neutralize many of Iran’s threats with ease. This seems to indicate that although the attack was inevitable for Tehran, Iran was still seeking to avoid a full-scale confrontation with Israel.
Was what Tehran did in retaliation for the April 1st attack on its consulate in Syria a symbolic act to avoid provoking Israel’s response? Will Israel show another reaction after demonstrating its power by intercepting and downing almost all missiles and drones? Can the crisis be considered over, or is escalation inevitable?
Antonio Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations, at an emergency Security Council meeting, urged all parties to step back from the brink and warned that neither the region nor the world can endure another war. A similar request was issued by the G7 leaders, who condemned Iran’s attack but also clarified that we must avoid escalating tensions.
Despite Benjamin Netanyahu, the Prime Minister of Tel Aviv, and his war cabinet announcing that a response to Iran’s attack will come at methods and times chosen by Israel, Washington emphasized its unconditional support for the Jewish state but stated that the United States will not participate in a retaliatory attack against Tehran. Thus, the message was clear: the United States does not intend to enter another war that it did not seek from the start.
Now it remains to be seen whether Israel and Prime Minister Netanyahu will receive this message. If Tel Aviv causes a conflict between the two main military powers in the region, staying out of it will not be easy for the United States.
Is Israel Isolated?
Can Tel Aviv present its response to Iran’s attack as a victory, the first victory for Israel since the current war began? It is clear that if the attack had not been conducted with technologies that were intercepted by satellites of allies and Israel beforehand, things would have turned out differently. According to the army spokesperson, the attack only caused minor damage to the infrastructure of the Nevatim airbase in the south and resulted in the injury of a little girl from missile shrapnel.
Moreover, Tehran’s extensive reaction after Israel’s attack on the Iranian consulate in Syria gave Tel Aviv the opportunity to strengthen its air defense units, call up its reserves, and declare the highest level of alert. The Israeli army admitted that although the Arrow, Iron Dome, and David’s Sling systems intercepted most of the Iranian drones and missiles, the defense was more effective thanks to our strategic partners. The main partners are the United States, Britain, and France, though it is not limited to these three countries.
According to Reuters, on the night of the attack, Amman’s anti-aircraft systems shot down dozens of Iranian drones flying towards Israel, and the Gulf countries, from the United Arab Emirates to Saudi Arabia, also played an indirect role as they host Western air defense systems, surveillance, and refueling aircraft.
Jordanian officials, from a country where one in five residents is of Palestinian origin, felt compelled to respond and justified the interception and downing of drones by claiming that only unauthorized aircraft were intercepted as they posed a threat to our people and densely populated areas.
Netanyahu at a Crossroads
Although Iran reacted to Israel’s attack on its consulate to not lose face internationally, as its ambassador to the United Nations pointed out, it did so in a proportionate way. Now it is up to the Israeli government to decide between escalation or victory, as US President Joe Biden suggested to him.
Facing two options, Netanyahu needs time. On one hand, he is pressured by his allies from the far-right religious fundamentalist wing, who demand a devastating response against Tehran. On the other hand, he does not want to diminish the satisfying tone with which Israeli newspapers praise the impressive display of the army’s defensive capabilities, emphasizing the contrast of this operation with the collapse of air defenses on October 7 and insisting that the situation has changed.
It is worth noting that an official Iranian government account tweeted before the first drone reached Israeli airspace, stating that for Tehran, the matter is considered finished. However, Israel’s response could turn a clear victory into a new gamble with an unpredictable outcome, potentially triggering a large-scale war, with all the consequences this case entails. Such an action would provoke the anger of the US government, which once again proved to play a decisive role in ensuring Israel’s security.
An Unpredictable Variable
However, even considering the potential consequences of Israel’s response to Iran’s attack, there is no guarantee that the Israeli government will not consider this hypothesis. One source told journalist Ronen Bergman that if the government’s negotiations were broadcast live on YouTube, 4 million people at Ben Gurion Airport in Tel Aviv would be shouting and trying to leave. This is why all eyes are once again on the Israeli Prime Minister. After six months of war and the death of nearly 34,000 Palestinians, none of his objectives in Gaza have been achieved.
More than 100 hostages, many of whom are now dead, remain in the Gaza Strip. Many Hamas leaders, including Yahya Sinwar, are still alive, and the Israeli army continues to fend off counterattacks from areas declared under their control months ago.
Despite all this, the longest-serving leader of the Israeli government, who politically survived even if he refused to accept responsibility for the failure in response to the October 7 Hamas attack, remains at the helm of the executive branch. Despite all these issues, with increasing calls for early elections, polls show that in recent weeks Netanyahu’s personal popularity and support for his Likud party have increased and begun to improve.
Netanyahu has long used anti-Iranian rhetoric to his advantage without turning words into action. Today, the region and the world must hope that he does not use this situation as another political opportunity.
The current situation almost resembles a ritual or, in other words, a Middle Eastern bullfight. Israel attacks the Iranian consulate in Damascus to eliminate some prominent IRGC commanders without regard for the consequences. Iran, to wash away the stain of Israel’s attack on its consulate, responds with a barrage of drones and missiles intended to hit no targets.
The aim is to restore dignity to all. You can return to low-intensity conflict through Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Hamas. Everyone returned to the predetermined order, but this order was achieved due to the dramatic last hours in the Middle Eastern sky. However, as of now, nothing is resolved, and everything could lead to another public crisis and a real Middle Eastern war, tomorrow, a week, or a month from now.
