What is Bibi and partners’ plan for the Middle East?
What is Bibi and partners’ plan for the Middle East?
The ceasefire in the Middle East remains, but everything is changing.
The United States government is pushing for the ceasefire to remain in both Lebanon and Gaza, while Israel is taking steps to restructure the region in its favor and exploiting Iran’s weakness. The Palestinian movement Hamas has confirmed that on Thursday, February 20, it will hand over the bodies of four Israeli citizens who were kidnapped on October 7, 2023, while six other hostages who are still alive will be released next Saturday.
In return, Israel will release some Palestinian prisoners. It seems that the recent deadlock, which peaked with US President Donald Trump’s threat to create hell in Gaza, is now over, paving the way for the transition to the second stage of an agreement reached in January.
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar has confirmed that Tel Aviv has agreed to begin negotiations in this regard, while the US special envoy for the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, has previously said that the second stage of the agreement will certainly begin and Trump wants this to happen.
Meanwhile, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have completed their redeployment in southern Lebanon, which according to the agreement with Hezbollah, was supposed to be fully withdrawn by Tuesday, February 18.
However, Tel Aviv’s forces are stationed in five positions beyond the border, which, along with seven Israeli bases built on the Syrian side of the Golan, seem to be a redefinition of the borders between Israel and its two Arab neighbors. It is no coincidence that all of this is happening in an area that until a few months ago was directly or indirectly under the control of forces supporting Iran in the region.
US Pressures
The release of the six Israelis who are still alive was supposed to happen in the first stage of the agreement, within 42 days, but instead, they will be released today, Saturday, in two separate transfers.
This is an important step by Hamas, which according to the newspaper Haaretz, may have received a significant offer from the mediators in return, including the entry of containers, tents, and machinery into Gaza for clearing debris, and possibly promises regarding the continuation of negotiations that the Americans are also hopeful about.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seems to have taken a more cautious approach, as he is caught between growing public support for the continuation of the ceasefire and the pressures from extremists in his coalition to resume hostilities in Gaza as soon as possible.
In Lebanon, Israel has not clarified how long its forces will remain stationed in five fortified positions north of the border, each intended to protect an Israeli community south of the border.
The Lebanese government and Hezbollah, which according to the agreement were supposed to retreat to the north of the Litani River, have condemned Israel’s refusal to fully withdraw, considering it a violation of the ceasefire agreement. The Israeli army also confirmed that it conducted a drone attack in Aita al-Shaab, killing a Hezbollah operative.
Currently, however, it seems that the United States is supporting Israel, as during his recent visit to Jerusalem, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio called on the Lebanese army to intervene against Hezbollah’s ceasefire violations in southern Litani before asking Israel to withdraw.
Is Israel expanding its control?
According to an agreement signed on November 27, the Lebanese army was supposed to deploy in the south of the country along with UN peacekeeping forces, while the Israeli army and Hezbollah were to withdraw from their positions and dismantle any military infrastructure within 60 days, which was later extended to February 18.
This week, especially after Lebanese authorities prevented some Iranian planes from landing in Beirut, there were strong protests from the Lebanese people, including many Hezbollah supporters. The Israeli army has announced that Hezbollah and the Quds Force, a special unit of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, are using civilian flights to secretly transfer funds intended to replenish Hezbollah’s weapons and rebuild its military capabilities in Lebanon, which have suffered significant damage in months of military conflict with the Israeli government.
In other words, the Beirut government has accepted Israel’s demands, while Israel has announced that it has strengthened its military positions in Syria, effectively creating a new advanced defense line against the new Islamist rulers of this country.
Iran has never been this weak.
Satellite images analyzed by the Washington Post, Al Jazeera, and others show that the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have established at least seven new bases on the Syrian side of the border, from Mount Hermon to Tel Kadne near the border triangle between Israel, Syria, and Jordan.
The Israeli government, which does not trust the post-Assad Syrian government led by Ahmed al-Sharaa, known as Abu Mohammad al-Julani, has occupied the buffer zone separating its border from Syria’s in the Golan Heights and has then advanced into the southwestern provinces of Syria.
According to sources who spoke with the Jerusalem Post, the Trump administration welcomes the possibility of Israel maintaining a new and larger buffer zone in Syria in the long term, as the US president understands Israel’s concerns that the new Syrian regime may be a wolf in sheep’s clothing.
Whether in Syria or Lebanon, Israel is acting and knows it has support, not only because of US backing but also due to the unprecedented situation that Iran and its network of militias face in the region as a whole, and particularly in the two neighboring countries.
It is enough to note that this week, for the first time in over 20 years, the Lebanese government has removed the term ‘armed resistance,’ which relates to Hezbollah, from its statement on executive priorities, indicating a significant change not only in rhetoric but also regarding deep disagreements over Hezbollah and Iran’s role in Lebanon’s future.
The news of Israel not withdrawing from southern Lebanon could breathe new life into Hezbollah and Tehran’s resistance rhetoric and allow Hezbollah to cement its refusal to disarm. However, Hezbollah is militarily weakened, and its leadership is fragile. After Assad’s fall, Iran has struggled to find ways to supply its Lebanese ally, and Israel’s strengthened presence in the Middle East only worsens the situation for Iran’s leadership. Nevertheless, for Tehran, Israel’s occupation of new territories in Syria and Lebanon is a minor issue.
Since Trump’s administration, the issue of Iran’s nuclear program has returned to the forefront of the news, and amid rumors of new sanctions, the possibility of negotiations and preemptive strikes, it seems that even the Medics’ government looks at the West with increasing distrust. Therefore, Iran is seeking a new regional strategy to rebuild its deterrence, fully aware that while Israel operates unchallenged in the Levant and is supported by Washington, all eyes are on Tehran, and its space for shadow activity is decreasing.
