What is Raisi’s Issue with Hemmati? Part Two
The issue between Raisi and Hemmati has intensified amidst the growing tensions between Abdolnaser Hemmati and the thirteenth Raisi administration, with the government’s supporters launching extensive attacks on the former Central Bank governor. The main disagreements between Hemmati and Raisi’s government revolve around the current actions of the Central Bank and the announcement of misleading statistics by the head of the government. In recent months, Raisi has presented figures that experts believe are not based in reality. Considering the public’s reaction on social media, it seems that the variables announced by the government only find acceptance among Raisi’s close circle, variables that are the main cause of the worsening inflation in the country, making their control extremely important.
In the first part of this series of reports, the disagreements between the twelfth government and Abdolnaser Hemmati in his role as the governor of the Central Bank were discussed. A disagreement that was fundamentally over the performance of the Central Bank and has been repeated several times in recent years. The second part of this case file explores the disagreements between Hemmati and the thirteenth government and investigates their causes.
Elections and Raisi’s Outlandish Promises
It could be said that the 2021 presidential election was the starting point of the disagreements between Raisi and Hemmati. An election that experts and political activists agree was non-competitive and evaluate as the least vibrant political competition in the history of the Islamic Republic. The developments unfolded in such a way that Abdolnaser Hemmati was the most significant reformist candidate who managed to pass the Guardian Council’s barrier.
Raisi’s and his other cover candidates’ lack of command over economic matters turned the televised debates into a confrontation scene between Hemmati, as an economist, and the other candidates. Raisi’s unfamiliarity with executive management in the country intensified the debate between the reformist candidate and the other nominees.
Hemmati criticized Raisi’s economic slogans in three televised debates. In this political competition, predictions were made by the former Central Bank governor about the unfulfillment of the opposing candidates’ promises. Although Hemmati’s statements during the election did not catch the public’s attention, immediately after the establishment of the thirteenth cabinet, users on social media began republishing parts of the 2021 election debates.
Among the slogans emphasized by Ebrahim Raisi were controlling the inflation rate, avoiding price controls, boosting production, halting the growth of liquidity, Islamizing the banking system, constructing 4 million housing units, and organizing the stock market in the short term. However, as time passed, it became clear that none of these promises were fulfilled, and in most cases, the situation worsened.
For example, in terms of inflation and liquidity growth, some experts believe the Central Bank has not succeeded. Although Raisi recently announced strange statistics, official figures indicate record-breaking point-to-point inflation in the past July and August. This approach also exists in announcing unemployment rates or attracting foreign investment. Many economists believe such an approach is demagogic and lacks scientific authenticity.
Hemmati Exposed the Government
The ambiguities surrounding Raisi’s strange reports have led economic experts from both main spectrums to widely criticize the government’s performance. In terms of liquidity growth and government borrowing, many economists believe the government has bypassed the Central Bank in recent months, borrowing from banks. This government action has increased banks’ overdrafts, which results in nothing but an increased speed of liquidity growth.
However, the Central Bank has recently claimed through reports that the speed of liquidity growth has decreased. According to the government and the Central Bank, increased oil revenues have reduced the budget deficit, and thus the government has not needed to borrow, naturally leading to an unprecedented reduction in liquidity growth resulting from borrowing.
However, Hemmati published tweets on this matter, focusing on exposing the government’s indirect borrowing method from the Central Bank. Another sign of the incorrectness of the Central Bank’s reports is the statistics on banks’ overdrafts.
The exposure of these contradictions, mainly by Abdolnaser Hemmati, has forced the government and even Ebrahim Raisi himself to react. Even government media, including the IRNA news agency, attempts to directly respond to Hemmati’s statements by trying to portray his revelations as lacking authenticity.
Where is Raisi’s Statistical Source?
Now, the public is questioning whether the reports presented by Ebrahim Raisi are accurate or merely government propaganda. On the other hand, there are ambiguities surrounding the source of the statistics released by Raisi.
Because the head of the thirteenth government has acted selectively in referring to statistics and has even, in some cases, forced the Central Bank to publish unusual reports on the previous government’s performance. Reports that no one had seen or heard of until now. It is now unclear how far Raisi’s approach to publishing the Central Bank’s periodicals will go and whether the public will buy into such claims.
Salehabadi
From the start, the Raisi administration, by appointing Ali Salehabadi as the governor of the Central Bank, heightened concerns about the future of monetary variables. Salehabadi’s appointment, another graduate of Imam Sadegh University, created numerous protests and controversies around him. The connection between Salehabadi and Gholamreza Mesbahi-Moghadam, a member of the Expediency Discernment Council, was one of these controversies. Although the rumor of a familial relationship between these two was denied, there remains a belief that Salehabadi reached the Central Bank’s presidency with Mesbahi-Moghadam’s backing.
Another criticism of this appointment was that Salehabadi was chosen because of his alignment with Raisi’s government’s thoughts and his obedience to its directives. Raisi and Khandoozi covered this up by using the phrase ‘coordination between the government and the Central Bank.’
Abdolnaser Hemmati had also issued warnings in this regard. In his view, such an approach in appointing the Central Bank governor would undermine the independence of the country’s highest monetary and banking policy-making institution. The one-year record of the government and the Central Bank also indicates the correctness of this concern. As mentioned, the Central Bank has effectively been downgraded from a high policy-making institution to the public relations position of Raisi.
Read the previous section of this article titled ‘What is Raisi’s Issue with Hemmati? Part One.’ Additionally, Iran Gate has covered an exclusive report and analysis titled ‘Raisi’s Government’s Failure in the Currency Market.’
- How the Stock Market Shrunk Under Raisi’s Government
- Raisi’s Stock Market Promises: Slogans that Were Expensive for Nothing
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