When will the dollar reach 40,000 tomans?
When will the dollar reach 40,000 tomans? According to Iran Gate, the fluctuations in the exchange rate in December 2022 have been so intense and widespread that many activists and experts believe the dollar will soon enter the 40,000 toman range, and there is no escape from this event. But when will this happen, and can the Raisi government find a measure to prevent the continuous depreciation of the rial?
In the early days of December 2022, the dollar price reached an incredible and unbelievable record of 37,000 tomans. This happened in the currency market, and the Ebrahim Raisi government tried to manage the situation by implementing market securitization policies and cash injections. However, despite a drop of about 1,500 tomans in the dollar rate in recent days, there is no clear prospect for stabilizing the dollar price below the 40,000 toman threshold.
The 40,000 toman dollar
Iran Gate’s forecast for the currency market in late November indicated that the dollar rate would rise to around 37,000 tomans in the coming weeks. However, the government and the central bank would try to temporarily control this price by intervening in the currency market. In the same report published in the last days of the previous month, it was also emphasized that the dollar price would stagnate in the 35,000 toman range under the pressure of market makers.
However, as mentioned, these prices are artificial and traditionally cannot be stabilized. In other words, the government is constantly pressing prices in the currency market, and such actions are akin to a large volume of floodwater accumulating behind a massive dam wall, which eventually develops a crack, causing the dam to break. Ultimately, the flood that was meant to be controlled behind the dam is released with a force several times greater than the initial destructive power.
The dollar price behaves similarly. When governments press down on price springs, one should expect price jumps after a few weeks or at most a few months. Currently, experts believe that the cash reserves available to the government and the central bank are limited, and the currency injection policy will not last long. Therefore, it is expected that in the coming weeks of January 2023, we will face a severe price jump, which could stabilize around 41,000 to 42,000 tomans, meaning a more than 20% increase in the dollar rate in just two to three weeks.
Gold and coins
According to field reports from the gold and coin market in Sabzeh Meydan, Tehran, each gram of 18-carat gold was traded at around 1,590,000 tomans. Each Bahar Azadi coin also saw an unprecedented jump, selling for over 17,500,000 tomans. Given the state of global markets and currency rate fluctuations, if the dollar price increases by 20% in the coming weeks, it is expected that gold prices will enter the 1,750,000 toman range. Each coin, according to provided analyses, will be traded for more than 19,000,000 tomans.
In such conditions, it can be said that the bubble for each Bahar Azadi coin will grow significantly, increasing by about 30%. This issue signifies an intensification of speculative trading and the flourishing of completely destructive and unproductive activities within the Iranian economy.
In this regard, other reports and analyses have been published in Iran Gate.
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- No Hope for the Future of Iran’s Economy: Part One
- Daily Record-Breaking of Dollar Rates
