Where are the protests headed? Will Iran become like Venezuela?
Where are the protests headed? Will Iran become like Venezuela? What direction will the future of protests in Iran take? Will they stop or fade away? Will the situation revert to what it was before what is now referred to as the ‘Mahsa Moment’? Will more people join the protests, or will this wave of protests also subside like those in December 2017 and November 2019, waiting for another wave to rise? Or perhaps the authorities will implement a series of structural reforms to halt the advance of the protests.
Previous results from a university study on the protests from 2017 to 2021 indicated that if the demands of the people are not addressed and the main causes of the protests are ignored, it is uncertain whether the next waves of protests will remain at previous levels or flare up. It was predicted that a single spark could once again bring all protesters with diverse perspectives and goals to the streets.
This time, the spark was ignited by the death of Mahsa Amini, which some refer to as the ‘Mahsa Moment.’ Many analysts believe that Iranian society will not return to its previous state after this moment. A significant portion of the dissatisfied and protesting society initially clung to reforms and gradually became disillusioned with them. Now, experts believe that this society has moved beyond a state from which it cannot return.
Intermediary Forces
Dr. Abolfazl Delavari, a political science professor, stated at a recent meeting titled ‘Analysis and Future Studies of the 2022 Protests’ held by the Iranian Political Science Association, that these protests have some revolutionary aspects but their structure is not yet such that they can be called a revolutionary movement that would plunge Iran into a revolutionary state. He noted that the lack of a specific ideology, organization, and centralized leadership is the reason for this. Contrary to others, he believes that this situation is still reversible.
In his view, what complicates the current situation in Iran is the simultaneity of these two points: On one side, there is a movement that has surpassed many of the assumptions of previous generations and is creating a vision of a different future. On the other side, there is an established regime whose destruction cannot easily be assumed. In such conditions, the current situation is concerning if we witness an increase in tension between these two points, and it is hopeful if the established regime agrees to a political mechanism to navigate these dangerous conditions.
Dr. Reza Najafzadeh, a political science professor, pointed out that we are gradually witnessing the transformation of the peaceful advancement of social movements into violent advancement. He stated that today we are faced with a duality: on one side, the danger of civil war, and on the other, the moderation and reform of governance structures to open a two-way space between power and society.
In his opinion, opening pathways for interaction, away from propaganda and media verbosity, requires the humility of power in front of society. The balance of despair may pave the way for violence, but the isolation of power and the depression of the population close the door to dialogue. He believes that we must continue to explore ways to negotiate with the power institutions. We still need intermediary forces. It is important for groups that are credible in the eyes of the power institutions and have social, scientific, and cultural authority, such as university professors, to take the initiative in dialogue with influential officials.
Stalemate Situation
Nonetheless, some do not have much hope for dialogue between the government and the people or the initiation of a series of reform actions. Bijan Eshtari, a political analyst, recently referred to this as a ‘stalemate situation’ in a piece where he tried to answer the question of where the future of protests is headed. In chess, a stalemate usually occurs at the end of the game, where either all the pieces are off the board and only the king remains, or if they are present, they cannot make a legal move, and only the king can move, but if it does, it will be checkmated.
Eshtari wrote that the reality of the matter is that our country is stuck in such a complicated situation that it is difficult to predict the future. On one hand, we are dealing with a government that has no solution to offer for the current crisis. Not only does it lack any solutions, but it has also lost its maneuvering capability.
According to his writing, despite the intensity and extent of the protests, they have not yet reached a stage that disrupts the current balance. Despite the unprecedented scale of the peaceful protests in Saqqez and the widespread student protests, many segments of the population have not yet entered the scene of civil protests. However, there is a possibility that this may happen, and if it does, the train of transformation will not stop until it reaches its final destination. But for now, the government is not entirely powerless.
Eshtari noted that there are still parts of the population that support the government, and despite all the defections, the military and law enforcement bodies are still serving the rulers. The government sells oil, and its financial situation has not yet become fragile. He wrote that his personal prediction is that we will enter a stage where both sides have equal strength, meaning that neither the government is powerful enough to destroy the opposition, nor is the opposition strong enough to topple the government.
Venezuelanization Situation
For years, economic experts have been warning that Iran is at risk of Venezuelanization. These warnings have had less of a political direction, or at least the root cause has been more economic, with political ramifications. As the general conditions in Iran become more critical, the signs of the Venezuelanization of the economy have become more apparent than ever. Zero percent average economic growth, over 40% inflation, a decline in per capita income, liquidity exceeding 5,500 trillion tomans, a drop in economic participation in the labor market, negative gross fixed capital formation, and lack of productivity are just some of the challenges facing Iran’s economy in recent years.
The point Eshtari referred to in the continuation of the same piece on the stalemate situation is that, from a political perspective, Iran is heading towards Venezuelanization. In my opinion, we will enter a stage where society is divided into two parts: the majority opposition and the minority ruling supporters.
Welfare services are directed solely towards government supporters, while those who do not support the government are put under more pressure. The government pursues patronage in the most severe form possible. Under such conditions, the government remains in place, but the opposition is also present on the scene, occasionally manifesting in the form of temporary uprisings that are suppressed and then reignite. This is the situation I call the Venezuelanization of Iran.
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