Who is to blame for the failure of the JCPOA negotiations?
The mountain roared and gave birth to a mouse. So far, the only achievement of this rough group has been nothing. This ‘rough group’ was a name given by a reformist political activist to the nuclear negotiation team because this team claimed it would force the West to retreat from its demands by giving fewer concessions. Meanwhile, from the very beginning, experts warned that if an agreement under the name of JCPOA was reached, it was because the nuclear team of Rouhani’s government knew its job, and it’s unlikely that the nuclear team of Raisi’s government, especially Amirabdollahian and Bagheri Kani, can reach a better agreement than the JCPOA.
Most likely, neither Amirabdollahian nor Bagheri Kani felt the need to read the collection of books ‘The Untold Secret’ during this period. However, it might not be a bad idea to recommend reading the process of the nuclear negotiations of the previous government to them after they are done with negotiations, even just for learning from experience.
In the hope of the JCPOA’s failure
Raisi and his principlist supporters, whether when they were outside of power or since they have taken over the elected institutions of power, have repeatedly welcomed the end of the JCPOA. Although after the negotiation file fell into their hands, their most important demand was the return of the US to the JCPOA, Raisi’s principlist supporters blocked the way for the revival of the JCPOA in Rouhani’s government by passing a resolution at the end of his term.
Hassan Rouhani repeatedly referred to this resolution afterward and said he wished they hadn’t been caught in this resolution so that the sanctions would have been lifted. Raisi himself has repeatedly said that in case of negotiation failure, we will continue with his economic policies. He has repeatedly stated that we have no problem selling oil or in the reserves of essential goods, and all this means we have no seriousness in concluding the negotiations as the key to lifting the sanctions, and we accept the responsibility for its consequences.
Without a roadmap
This is while, according to experts, Iran’s economy is not in a position to want or be able to bear the burden and cost of the official failure of nuclear negotiations and the non-revival of the JCPOA. Officially announcing the failure of the negotiations and the death of the JCPOA will have direct and immediate impacts on economic and livelihood conditions, leading to unmanageable and uncontrollable inflation, and will also have destructive psychological effects on public opinion.
Most importantly, there is no alternative to the JCPOA. From the experts’ perspective, the government that has come to power had no plan for foreign policy, especially regarding the JCPOA revival negotiations, and therefore has no alternative solution to address the country’s economic issues in the event of negotiation failure.
Mahmoud Abbaszadeh, a member of the National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, said our foreign diplomacy had no roadmap for the negotiations. Considering the superior position that the Islamic Republic had with good cards for negotiations, I believe we could have advanced the negotiations better to gain concessions and results. However, why couldn’t we achieve results? Because our foreign diplomacy did not have a precise roadmap, and today, I still believe we don’t.
The situation is so bad that even Fereydoun Abbasi, the head of the Atomic Energy Organization under Ahmadinejad’s government and a critic of Rouhani’s nuclear team, has recently spoken out. He recently said that no written text has been provided to us to see what the result of two hours of negotiations has been. Today, analyses and statements are based on individuals’ information or reports from foreign media, which are sometimes incorrect.
Factional interests instead of national interests
In the meantime, many, from the perspective of national interests and the fact that the delay in reviving the JCPOA leads to continued and increased losses and mounting pressure on the domestic economy and the increasing suffering of the people, have recommended Raisi to change his nuclear team and even use members of the former team. Some even recommended bringing back Zarif as the only savior of the JCPOA revival.
Because they believe that Raisi has entrusted the fate of the negotiations to individuals whose ideological, political, and even personal priorities prevail over national interests, in this case, not only the nation but also the government and Raisi will suffer losses. Mohammad Ali Abtahi, a reformist political activist and former parliamentary deputy of the reformist government, recently, with a sarcastic tone, said it was Friday again, and Alamolhoda of Mashhad thanked Ali Bagheri for not reaching a result in Qatar just like in Vienna.
He thanked Imam Sadegh University for training such night prayer performers. May God accept Bagheri’s night prayers, but I wish someone who had studied diplomacy would go to negotiate.
