Zelensky’s Self-confidence and Hope for Victory
Zelensky’s self-confidence and hope for victory embarrassed the Kremlin with the success of Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the northeast, making the voices of war opponents louder than ever to reach the Kremlin and warlords. Kyiv called for more Western support and claimed, ‘We can win.’
The situation has reached a point where even Russian sources admit that Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the northeast is rapidly advancing, and within a few days, Kyiv’s forces have almost retaken the entire Kharkiv region.
Within a few hours, the Russian army retreated from Izyum, a critical railway hub for supply deliveries, after Ukrainian forces captured Kupiansk. The lightning advance liberated over three thousand kilometers of Ukrainian territory, with more than a thousand kilometers reclaimed since the beginning of September.
Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister, said these advances are the result of Western military support in the war, demonstrating that with new weapons, Ukraine can win the war.
While Ukrainian battalions on the front lines claim to have advanced to the Russian border in some areas, the Russian Ministry of Defense denies the withdrawal from Izyum and Balakliia, describing it as a tactical redeployment aimed at reorganizing forces and focusing on Donbas.
Regardless of propaganda, Ukraine’s successes have embarrassed the Kremlin, which is currently facing heavy losses, logistical problems, and declining troop morale.
The Russian opposition website Meduza reports that Ukraine’s advance has delayed the so-called referendum on joining Moscow in Donbas, as well as in the Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, and Kherson regions.
Although victory for Ukraine is not yet imminent, with about one-fifth of the country currently occupied, the prevailing idea and analysis, not only in Russia but also in most countries around the world, that Moscow’s soldiers are destined to win and that Moscow’s victory is inevitable, now seems very shaky.
Moscow’s Revenge
In response to Ukraine’s counteroffensive successes, Moscow’s forces attacked power infrastructure in the Kharkiv and Donetsk regions, causing widespread blackouts, especially in eastern areas. The Russians bombed the largest thermal power plant in Kharkiv, and the city’s mayor announced that significant attacks on critical infrastructure had occurred, leaving many areas without electricity and water.
This revenge by the invading country against civilian infrastructure is due to our military successes. President Zelensky assured in his speech that cold, darkness, hunger, and thirst will not stop Ukrainians.
Meanwhile, reactor number 6 in the city of Zaporizhzhia, the last active reactor, has been shut down. This decision was made due to ongoing bombings around the plant and after concerns were expressed by Rafael Grossi, the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, who recently visited the plant with other UN nuclear agency experts.
The Zaporizhzhia Threat
According to the Kremlin and the TASS news agency, Zaporizhzhia and the risks associated with its plant were the main topics of a phone conversation between the presidents of Russia and France, emphasizing that this discussion was initiated by French President Emmanuel Macron.
He asked his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, to remove light and heavy weapons from the nuclear plant. According to the Elysee, Macron condemned the continuation of Russian military operations in Ukraine and emphasized Ukraine’s territorial integrity during this conversation.
Additionally, the French President discussed global food security with Putin and reminded that European sanctions will not apply to agricultural products or essential goods needed by farmers.
He further added that it is the shared responsibility of all international partners, particularly Russia, to ensure that countries at greater risk and danger do not face difficulties in receiving the resources and equipment they need.
Finally, Macron asked the Russian leader to ensure that, based on an agreement reached between Russia, Ukraine, and Turkey under the UN’s supervision, exported grains reach those who urgently need them.
Changing Landscape
In five days, the counteroffensive in northeastern Ukraine changed the conflict landscape between the two countries. Many believed in Russia’s certain and inevitable victory in the war with Ukraine. Kyiv’s forces managed to reclaim kilometers of occupied territories in less than a week.
According to the Institute for the Study of War, the territories recaptured by Ukrainian forces are far greater than what Russian forces have captured in all their operations since April.
In fact, this attack seems to be the second phase of a double counteroffensive: first Kherson, then Kharkiv. It should be noted that Kyiv succeeded in gathering its forces in complete silence and without the Russian intelligence forces’ awareness.
Critical Days
Given recent events, everyone predicts that the coming days will be critical. It seems very unlikely that Ukraine will be able to expel Russian forces from its territory before summer unless something extraordinary happens.
However, Kyiv has shown what a difference Western support can make. Morale in Ukraine remains high, and broad political goals such as reclaiming all territories occupied by Russia, receiving reparations, and prosecuting those responsible for war crimes are being pursued and demanded with full seriousness. Currently, these points certainly do not hold significant importance or status for Putin and the Kremlin.
But Putin and the Russian military leadership have been questioned following unprecedented criticism from Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov over Russia’s recent and successive defeats and his criticism of the Russian Defense Ministry’s strategy. The answers they will give depend on whether they will win the war or not.
It is no secret that winning a battle does not mean winning the war, and certainly, experts need to exercise caution in their analyses regarding Ukraine’s counteroffensive. In war, one can win not only with weapons but also with images and narratives. As we have seen in recent days, most social media platforms like Telegram and Twitter and other social media channels have been filled with images of Ukrainian flags raised in cities that were just days ago under Russian control.
Certainly, Ukrainians won a major battle, not just because they managed to liberate more territories in the past week than all the territories occupied by Moscow since April, but because they broke the stalemate and weakened Russia’s image as an enemy that seemed almost impossible to defeat. Now we must see how Russia will act considering a defeat that may be imminent.
