Fateful Days and Key Numbers
While another week of the 2022 election campaigns is coming to an end and voting has begun in many states through mail and absentee ballots, the recent survey numbers and experts’ projections alongside the current state of various campaign activities hold great importance.
In these circumstances, it is necessary to review several statistics and key numbers derived from surveys and recent projections. On October 12th, as the elections are already underway and will conclude on November 8th, we assess the overall electoral situation.
Biden is still not sufficiently popular.
The President of the United States, whose level of performance acceptance among the American public has improved in recent months, is now facing a slowdown in political activities in Washington and a decline in the buzz surrounding his summer achievements. Particularly with the ongoing economic problems and turmoil, his performance still has a 42% to 45% approval rating in surveys. The average of reputable polls indicates that he is in one of the worst positions among recent presidents on the eve of the first elections of his presidency. This is not good news for the Democrats.
Voters’ overall approach is towards Republicans
What we refer to as the overall approach of voters regarding congressional elections is a concept that is commonly used in surveys under the title of Generic Ballot. It asks respondents about their inclination towards one of the two parties in the elections. This question is independent of their inclination and intention to vote for a specific candidate in a state or district.
During a specific summer period, campaigns and following a significant upheaval in American society due to a Supreme Court ruling on abortion, a wave of changes and transformations occurred. Part of these changes needs to be explained in a separate and detailed narrative. In general, it should be said that the anger and concern of Americans, especially women, towards the extremist approach of Republicans regarding the abortion debate, created a serious background for the relative improvement of the Democrats’ situation in public opinion.
Aside from this issue, Biden’s achievements in Congress and the approval of several positive and progressive bills have also somewhat satisfied Democratic and independent voters who were disappointed with him and Democratic representatives.
Despite many experts predicting that the dissatisfaction with the Democrats, as the party in control of the Senate and the House of Representatives, would significantly undermine this relative improvement, the polls and the general outlook on the future of Congress, known as the Generic Ballot, indicate that the Democrats are lagging behind. This is not a good sign.
Considering the gerrymandering situation and the engineered electoral districts heavily favoring Republicans, a significant lead of over 7 to 8 percent in an ideal scenario demonstrates a serious advantage for Republicans in the House of Representatives. The situation for the Democrats to control the House of Representatives is never favorable.
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