America and Israel in the post-war era
The relationship between the United States and Israel has been largely defined by Washington’s continuous commitment to Israel’s security. This commitment began with the formal recognition of the Jewish state in 1948 by President Harry S. Truman. The United States had not yet become the main supplier of Israel’s arms until after the 1967 war.
At least until the Kennedy presidency, it was clear to everyone in the region that Washington did not pay much attention to Israel, despite Israel’s intense confrontations with Arabs during that period. Israel faced multiple wars with Arabs and constant struggle with Palestinian fighters, severely jeopardizing its security. Regardless of regional conditions, from the start of Israel’s covert nuclear weapons program in the early 1960s to the establishment of illegal settlements in the Golan Heights, the West Bank, and East Jerusalem, Washington began sending more arms and money to Israel.
In total, Washington has provided $300 billion to Israel during this period, which is the largest assistance the United States has ever provided to a foreign ally. These aids have given Israel a qualitative military advantage and compelled Washington to ensure Tel Aviv’s capability to deter any conventional military threat from any single country or potential coalition of state actors or non-state actors.
Despite the extensive scope of this assistance, Israeli leaders have often deviated from the requests of US presidents and policies, creating problems in maintaining the balance of relations between Tel Aviv and Washington. For example, former US President Bill Clinton once, after meeting with former and current Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, indirectly remarked, ‘Who the hell is the superpower in the Middle East?’ Recently, Netanyahu’s cabinet has repeatedly rejected requests from US President Joe Biden for agreeing to ceasefire conditions in Gaza.
Netanyahu boasts of his ability to resist or deceive Washington in a way that advances his goals. He once said, ‘I know America well. America can be led.’ He added, ‘America will not stand in our way.’ After a full year of war in Gaza, Israel has used the continuous flow of American weapons to avenge the October 7 attack by Hamas. To date, more than 41,000 Palestinians in Gaza, mostly civilians, have been killed.
At least 90% of the population of two million and two hundred thousand people in Gaza are displaced, and most buildings and infrastructure in Gaza are destroyed. With Israel’s attack on southern Lebanon and the nightmare scenario of a war starting in the region involving Iran, it seems that relations between the United States and Israel have reached a sensitive point. The Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft has asked a group of researchers, journalists, and former diplomats whether for the first time in decades, there is a possibility of a real change in the quality of US-Israel relations or not. In other words, has the recent year’s war changed the relationship between the US and Israel forever? If so, how? If not, why?
Jeff Aronson from the Middle East Institute believes that the relationship between the United States and Israel is based on fundamental agreements that were reached after the June 1967 war and that the United States has committed to maintaining Israel’s conventional military superiority against a combination of regional enemies. In return, Israel has committed to pursuing a policy of ambiguity regarding its nuclear arsenal.
Especially in the past year, the Biden administration has upheld its commitment to maintaining Israel’s qualitative military edge, a commitment that has been enshrined in US laws, although Washington has unprecedented concerns about Israel’s misuse of US-provided weapons. The United States insists that its unwavering support for Israel remains steadfast. President Biden has explicitly stated, ‘Make no mistake, the United States fully supports Israel.’
However, the unprecedented deployment of US forces to defend against Iranian missile attacks on Israel weakens the long-standing strategic cooperation agreement between the United States and Israel, leading the United States to declare that Israel is capable of defending itself given the weapons it possesses. Moving forward, the consequences of Israel’s vital dependence on direct military involvement by Washington in the Middle East must be given more attention.
Andy Basovich, co-founder of the Quincy Institute and professor at Boston University, believes that there will be no real change in the relationship between the US and Israel as long as Joe Biden is in the White House. What has changed over the past year is the American public’s attitude towards Israel. The right to self-defense that Israel constantly raises cannot justify the brutal punishments imposed on the Palestinian people. Many Americans were accustomed to seeing the conflict between Arabs and Israel as a competition between an innocent party and a criminal one. The events in Gaza and Lebanon have once and for all shattered this formula.
Daniel Bessner, a professor at the University of Washington, says it is still too early to say whether Israel’s attack on Gaza has changed US-Israel relations. On one hand, there are unprecedented criticisms from young Americans towards Israel, and the campaign to cancel aid to Israel in several key states in the US may severely question the unwavering support and reasons for America’s support for Israel.
On the other hand, the United States is a society whose most prominent leaders have been strongly politicized during periods when the existence of Israel was considered a gift to the Jewish people worldwide after the Holocaust. Therefore, criticism of the existence and behavior of Israel is perceived as anti-Semitism. As long as the current generation of US political leaders continue to view anti-Semitism as a justification for supporting Israel, nothing will truly change in US-Israel relations, and this change is not something that can be observed in the near future.
Defense analyst Dan Petris emphasizes that the war of the past year has not changed anything in US-Israel relations. American officials may express their opposition to Israeli policies more explicitly and show more willingness to verbally object to their Israeli counterparts. However, the actual policy of the United States does not align with verbal positions towards Israel. The US still effectively empowers Israel to escalate tensions, even when Washington calls for reducing tensions in the region.
The United States continues to sell offensive weapons and ammunition to Israel without conditions, while also urging Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to sign a ceasefire agreement in Gaza and promote peace in Lebanon. Washington remains indifferent even as Israel pursues highly risky strategies that could ultimately harm American forces in the Middle East. The United States is not incapable of improving its strained relations with NATO, but rather lacks the inclination to do so.
Former US Ambassador to NATO, Robert Hunter, will continue to strongly support Israel’s security. This sentiment is deeply ingrained in the political culture of the United States. Additionally, Israel’s perspective on the Middle East still dominates the prevailing narratives in American society, political circles, and mainstream media. This is why Israel managed to successfully dismantle the 2015 nuclear agreement with Iran without facing serious opposition from Washington, rendering America’s efforts to reduce tensions with Tehran unsuccessful.
Joe Biden will continue to fully support Israel and practically endorse Israel’s military actions in Gaza and Lebanon. However, the humanitarian casualties of the conflict have raised concerns about the United States’ support for Israel. Initial support for Israel’s response to Hamas’s attack on October 7 has slightly decreased. Some segments of American youth today no longer agree to blindly support Israel. The domestic policy of the United States will take its course, shaping America’s regional policies.
Former diplomat and Georgetown University professor, Shireen Hunter, after Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, the Gaza war has caused serious tensions in Israel’s relations with the United States. Israel’s indiscriminate bombing of Palestinians, high civilian casualties, massive destruction, and Washington’s inability to end the war have been the main reasons for these tensions. With Israel’s recent attacks, the minor clashes between Israel and Hezbollah have turned into a larger conflict, as Israel’s recent attacks and the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah have increased the risk of direct military intervention by Iran.
However, it is unlikely that the foundations of the relationship between the United States and Israel will change anytime soon. This is because no country, especially no important Arab country, has been willing to risk enmity with the United States by actively supporting the Palestinians. In short, the United States has not incurred any political or other costs in its unconditional support for Israel in relation to its relations with Arab countries and other nations.
Daniel Levy, a Middle East analyst, believes that the US support for Israel in the past year, despite Israel’s illegal actions in Gaza and other areas, more reflects the continuity of this relationship rather than a change in it. This relationship is based on fixed foundations such as arms deals, political and diplomatic support, alignment, and echoing Israeli narratives. Washington is not concerned whether Israeli narratives are believable or extremist, but with the reshaping of the surrounding environment in US-Israel relations, the consequences of this type of relationship have taken on different forms.
Trump’s plan to advance Israel’s regional hegemony through normalizing Arab-Israeli relations, marginalizing Palestinian rights, and accepting the apartheid and displacement of Palestinians, which was also pursued by Biden, is facing serious problems today. Even Arab countries can no longer easily proceed within the framework of this plan because Israel insists strangely on making the global public angrier and more outraged every day. Nevertheless, it is expected that America’s inclination to advance this plan will decrease.
More interesting is Israel’s dependence on the United States, especially at a time when this dependence is weakening America’s geopolitical position. As the Biden administration turns a blind eye to Israel’s criminal actions, the costs imposed on the United States in political, legal credibility, and other fields are increasing exponentially.
Rajan Menon, a professor at New York and Columbia University, believes that the relationship between the United States and Israel has permanently changed after Hamas’ attack on October 7th. The reality is that the Biden administration has provided unprecedented diplomatic, economic, and military support in response to Israel’s extreme reactions. It has been a longstanding policy in America that Israel must be supported unconditionally, not only during crises and wars, but even when the Israeli government has significantly expanded settlements in the West Bank in recent years.
In recent years, Israel has increased its inspection posts on the West Bank, expelled Palestinians from their land, allowed Jewish settlers to attack Palestinians without repercussions, and even stolen their livestock. The current US government has turned a blind eye to all of this, but the reality is that the previous US government did the same. It doesn’t matter who the president is in America, nothing has changed and nothing will change, even in the current divisive US policy, bipartisan agreement on one issue remains dominant: that support for Israel must be clear and unwavering forever.
Former CIA employee and Georgetown University professor, Phil Pillar, has included the main motivations for the special relations between the United States and Israel in American politics and culture. If we are looking for signs of change in relations, we should pay attention to American politics and culture. Pro-Israel lobby groups in the US are still strong and have neutralized Israel’s behaviors of past decades that were against US strategic interests. They will also confront Israel’s behavior with anger in the past year. However, American policy towards Israel is evolving.
In a growing partisan divide, the Republican Party’s automatic support for Israel has been accompanied by Israel’s shift towards right-wing extremism. Increasing opposition to Israel within the Democratic Party could lead to Kamala Harris adjusting US relations with Israel if she wins the elections. Because she does not consider herself a Zionist like Biden. But in the second term of President Trump, like the first term, he will give almost anything he wants to the Israeli government.
Analyst at the Quincy Institute, Daniel Shlein, believes that the highest-ranking members of Joe Biden’s foreign policy team must commit to full U.S. support for Israel, as of October 7, despite Israel repeatedly insulting Biden. This unwavering support remains untouched, as the U.S. continues to support Israel, disregarding any red lines that the president tried to establish. Whenever Israel crosses a red line, Biden’s response seems to only involve sending more weapons and support. It appears that no matter what Israel does, the U.S. government will continue to support Israel’s war machine.
Even if Israel drags the United States into a major war and sabotages the Democrats’ chance of winning the election, the broader relationship between the two sides has significantly changed. The US support for Israel is no longer a bipartisan issue. The Israel lobby has been forced to spend millions of dollars on two preliminary congressional races to prevent African-American candidates who criticized Israel’s actions in Gaza from making it to Congress. This has led many Americans to question the Israel lobby’s role in US domestic politics and ask whether such influence is in America’s best interest or not. A new generation of American voters has shown that they do not support sending billions of dollars of American taxpayers’ money to Israel, which has caused a population to suffer from poverty and displacement.
Steven Simon, a scholar at the Quincy Institute and a Dartmouth College professor, suggested last year that a trend that was already underway may accelerate, limiting Israel’s support base in the US. Israel will maintain strong support from Republicans while Democratic support will decrease but not disappear, especially when Israel comes under attack. Bipartisan support for US-Israel relations has been damaged due to the performance of Likud and the Republican Party.
From the Likud’s perspective, the Republican Party is better, and Republicans can gain political benefits by supporting Israel and use this support to defeat the Democrats. Republicans using this support for Israel is risky, but the right-wing faction in Israel, despite Trump’s inclination towards anti-Semitism, is still eager to strengthen ties with Republicans. Perhaps the Israeli right-wing faction is willing to trade American Jewish security for full control of the West Bank. Netanyahu believes that liberal American Jews will soon disappear, so he may consider this risky deal acceptable.
Barbara Slavin, a senior analyst at the Stimson Center and a professor at George Washington University, said, ‘I wish I could say that last year’s war has changed the relationship between the United States and Israel, but I’m afraid the United States is now even more involved in defending Israel.’ Without U.S. arms and intelligence support, Israel could not pursue its retaliatory wars against Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iran with such impunity, killing tens of thousands of civilians and turning Gaza into a heap of rubble. There have been times when Washington could have stopped the escalation of regional tensions.
It’s like the days after the exchange of fire between Iran and Israel in April, but it seems that this ability has diminished because we are on the brink of a broader conflict that will involve American forces with Israelis, Palestinians, Lebanese, Iraqis, Yemenis, and Iranians, and the prospect of a ceasefire or the return of Israeli hostages is not in sight.
Dore Gold, a senior analyst at an American institute for peace relations, points out that the special relationship between the United States and Israel has not disappeared, but let me say that the way discussions and debates in Congress about Israel and Palestine have changed compared to 25 years ago. For the first time, several members of Congress from both the House and the Senate have called for conditional cessation or ending of aid to Israel.
When Netanyahu spoke in Congress, half of the Democratic Party members abstained from attending the session. While Biden largely maintains his historical views on Israel, future generations of American leaders, as Biden often mentions, do not know Golda Meir; they know Benjamin Netanyahu and do not like him. If Israel wants to maintain its special relations with the United States, it must do so based on merit and see what will happen.
Sara Leah Watson, an analyst at the Democracy Institute in the Arab world, believes that a year of Israeli atrocities in Gaza has forever changed the perception of the American people. They now not only see Israel as an abusive and apartheid state, but also view Palestinians as a victimized population under oppression. As a result, the majority of Americans are now opposed to providing military aid to Israel.
However, despite the immense costs it incurs for America’s global standing, the US government’s support for Israel remains unconditional. The US government has provided unprecedented military and political support for Israel in the Gaza war and dangerously continues to support Israel militarily in Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq, Syria, and Iran. This has led to a stark inconsistency between US policies towards Israel and public sentiment, highlighting the undue influence of pro-Israel organizations, including their infiltration into government authorities to promote dangerous policies.
James Zogby, an analyst at the Arab American Institute, believes that Israel’s attack on Gaza a year ago has not permanently changed the relationship between the US and Israel. However, the political landscape of these relations has shifted, with a large portion of young and non-white voters moving towards supporting Palestine. As a result, pro-Israel groups and their supporters in Congress have tried to silence this opposition and prevent the growth of pro-Palestinian sentiments.
State laws have been enacted to punish individuals or groups who support sanctions against Israel, expanding the definition of anti-Semitism to include legitimate criticism of Israel. Pressure has been exerted by Republicans and financial donors to restrict critical speech on university campuses, with over $100 million spent on campaigns by congressional members in support of Palestinians. Given reactions to Israel’s reprehensible behavior and new repressive actions against Palestinian supporters, deeper polarized discussions about US-Israel relations are likely to emerge in the future.
