Black Corridor
After the statements of Azerbaijani and Turkish officials regarding what is known as the Zangezur Corridor, Russia has recently joined the supporters of building this continuous corridor and the connecting route between the Republic of Azerbaijan and the autonomous Republic of Nakhchivan, which is part of this country’s territory, has become a dilemma these days between the two main players, namely Baku and Yerevan, on one side, and other countries including Iran, Turkey, and Russia on the other side.
Over the past three decades, after the first Karabakh war when this region was under Armenian occupation, the Republic of Azerbaijan had access to Nakhchivan through Iran, and Iran had no issue with this matter. However, after the second Karabakh war in 2020 when Azerbaijan regained control of most of the mountainous Karabakh regions, the discussion of creating a corridor in the Syunik province, which Azerbaijan calls Western Zangezur, has become prominent. In fact, Baku wants to prevent Nakhchivan from being connected from within Iran using this corridor located on the border between Iran and Armenia.
This is while Iran has no objection to the implementation of the ninth clause of the 2020 Karabakh ceasefire agreement, which includes Azerbaijan’s access to Nakhchivan through Iran. Over the past three decades, the relationship between Baku and the Nakhchivan region has only been through Iran. To examine the differences between the Republic of Azerbaijan and Armenia, we must refer to the first Karabakh war from 1991 to 1994. The Karabakh region is a mountainous area of 4,000 square kilometers, which is a very high and mountainous region. This area includes cities such as Khan Kandi, Askeran, and Shusha, which were 4,000 kilometers during the Soviet era.
During the first Karabakh War from 1991 to 1994, in addition to declaring independence in that region, Armenia also took control of seven surrounding districts, which amounts to nearly 10,000 square kilometers. These districts include Jabrayil, Fuzuli, Zangilan, Agdam, Lachin, and Kalbajar. Therefore, Armenia occupied 4,000 square kilometers of mountainous Karabakh and 10,000 square kilometers of the surrounding districts. Armenia’s goal in taking these districts was to create a buffer zone around mountainous Karabakh so that the Republic of Azerbaijan could not besiege this area. Thirty years later, all these areas were almost empty of population, and their function was merely to create a security buffer or barrier.
During the Second Karabakh War in 2020, Azerbaijan was able to take control of seven regions plus the city of Shusha from inside the mountainous Karabakh. Three years later, in September 2023, Azerbaijan also took control of the mountainous Karabakh in a one-day war. Following this event, more than 100,000 people who resided there fled towards Armenia. Now, approximately less than a thousand people remain in Karabakh. None of the territories that were taken by Armenia in the 1990s are under their control anymore, and Azerbaijan has reclaimed all. Today, the debate revolves around determining the border boundaries, as the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan has not been established. The reason for this is that Western Azerbaijan was under Armenia’s occupation in Karabakh, and for this reason, unlike other Soviet republics, the border has not been determined.
What does the Kremlin say
In recent days, Moscow has also entered the scene behind Baku, and after Vladimir Putin’s visit to Azerbaijan two weeks ago, the spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of this country announced Moscow’s support for the Zangezur corridor project. This is while Russia had previously taken a passive stance on this region and had never explicitly taken a position. Following Vladimir Putin’s visit to Baku, Sergey Lavrov, the Foreign Minister of Russia, in an interview with Channel One Russia, said that we are in favor of quickly concluding a peace treaty between Baku and Yerevan and removing communication blockages. He described the Armenian government as an obstacle to this matter and added that unfortunately, it is the leadership of Armenia that is obstructing the agreement signed by Prime Minister Pashinyan regarding communications from the Syunik region of Armenia.
Maria Zakharova, the spokesperson for the Russian Foreign Ministry, also stated in her remarks that Zangezur is a route that can connect the main territory of Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan through the Syunik region of Armenia. She added that the issue of unblocking Zangezur will definitely be discussed within the framework of trilateral peace talks with Armenia. When asked about Iran’s position, Zakharova told reporters, ‘We have seen the concerns of the Iranian side regarding the Zangezur corridor, which should be addressed by contacting Tehran for clarification. However, Moscow’s position on this matter is clear. We proceed based on the fact that the solution must be acceptable for Armenia, Azerbaijan, and the neighboring countries of the region.’ Russia’s stance once again reminded the Islamic Republic to recall our country’s explicit position on the non-alteration of borders.
Turkey and Baku’s firm handshake
However, before Russia, Turkey was among the countries strongly supporting the creation of such a corridor. Some experts say that the ultimate goal of Baku and Turkey in creating the corridor is actually to annex the Syunik region on the border of Iran and Armenia and they nurture expansionist motives. Also, since a large part of Azerbaijan’s oil is extracted by British Petroleum, some accuse Western countries and NATO of playing a role in creating this corridor and believe that ultimately, establishing such a corridor will help facilitate the export of Caspian oil from Azerbaijan to Europe. However, some also refer to Turkey and Azerbaijan’s motives regarding the Turkic world and argue that Baku and Ankara have interests in expanding the Turkish realm.
Previously, Professor Golmohammadi from Tarbiat Modares University had mentioned Turkey’s motivations in re-engaging in the Caucasus region to the economic world. Turkey today has distanced itself from its active role in the volatile situation of the Middle East, especially the Arab Middle East, from North Africa to the eastern Mediterranean, and is defining new strategic interests in Central Eurasia for itself. Ankara, like other players, feels that Central Eurasia is turning into the heartland of wealth and power distribution in the international system. He pointed out that the missing piece of the puzzle is the middle corridor that Turkey wants to use to complete its strategic connections. He emphasized that Turkey’s main rival in the corridors from east to west is Iran, and Turkey’s efforts are aimed at preventing Iran from benefiting too much from this potential in order to have more leverage.
Why is Iran opposed
Iran opposes the creation of a corridor known as Zangezur by Azerbaijan and has valid reasons for it. Because Baku does not want this corridor to be under the control of Armenia, but rather wants to establish such a corridor without any interference or occupation from the side of Yerevan. This means that there should be no inspection station from Armenia in this area, which is considered a violation of the national sovereignty of that country. At the same time, if such a corridor is established, not only will Baku’s geopolitical dependence on Iran be eliminated, but it may even pressure the Republic of Azerbaijan to connect to Armenia and Europe, which is only possible through this border. Also, considering that Armenia has a weak government, if the Zangezur corridor is launched, it is possible that the sovereignty of this area may fall into the hands of Azerbaijan, albeit temporarily and legally under the control of Armenia.
In another scenario, it is not unlikely that if Armenia is granted concessions and enters into such a mechanism and agrees to create a corridor, then the question arises as to what Iran should do in the face of this scenario. Iran has repeatedly stated that it is completely opposed to any changes in its borders, an issue that has even been acknowledged by Western countries such as the United States, England, and France. In this regard, Iranian Foreign Minister, Seyyed Abbas Araghchi, said on Friday on the X social network that any threat against the territorial integrity of our neighbors or the redrawing of borders, whether in the north, south, east, or west, is completely unacceptable and is considered a red line for Iran. Araghchi added that peace, security, and stability in the region are not just a priority, but also one of the pillars of our national security.
Three Scenarios for Iran
The Islamic Republic of Iran will face three scenarios. The first is that the Republic of Azerbaijan and supporters of the Zangezur Corridor project may back down from pursuing such a plan, and like before, Azerbaijan may use Iran’s route to connect to Nakhchivan. The second scenario is that this corridor is established under the control of Armenia, and Azerbaijan travels through this corridor under the supervision of the Armenian government. However, the third and most dangerous scenario is that Azerbaijan has territorial ambitions in this region and will change the border between Iran and Armenia. Iran has repeatedly warned about such issues, and perhaps the first option that comes to mind in case of the occupation of the Syunik province is the use of military options. But it is no secret that if Iran engages in military conflict at its northern borders, it will have serious consequences.
So it is better for Tehran to prevent such a scenario from happening and by engaging in diplomatic negotiations and participating in its own corridor and transit projects, it can become a part of such initiatives and prevent dangerous and horrific scenarios from materializing.
