End of Nasrallah
Israel declares Nasrallah killed in Lebanon
The end of Nasrallah: Israel announces the death of Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah for over thirty years. This final act escalates tensions but also paves the way for unpredictable scenarios.
Hassan Nasrallah can no longer terrify the world. These are the words used in a post on social media by the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) to confirm the killing of the Secretary-General of Hezbollah in Lebanon, a Lebanese quasi-military group politically linked to Iran and considered one of Tehran’s key assets in the region. Hezbollah immediately did not confirm the news and began spreading some scattered reports from Friday afternoon.
In any case, this is the peak of escalating tensions that began last week with explosions of pagers and walkie-talkies in the possession of various Hezbollah forces, leading to casualties and injuries among civilians. Subsequently, Israel began extensive bombardment in Hezbollah strongholds, targeting Hezbollah leaders like Ibrahim Akil, the head of elite forces, continuing the chain of command up to Nasrallah. He is on the top of the list among organizational leaders that Israel considers a terrorist organization.
What happened?
On Saturday evening, the Israeli army intensified its attacks throughout southern Lebanon and Beirut, especially targeting the southern quarter of the city, considered a stronghold of Hezbollah. According to precise information from the Israeli army, as reported by Tel Aviv media outlets, Israeli Air Force jets targeted the central headquarters of the Hezbollah terrorist organization located under a residential building in the southern suburb of Beirut.
Based on the reconstructed information, Ali Karki, Hezbollah’s number three, was also killed in this attack. Initially, it was believed that the Lebanese organization’s commander in the south of the country, Karki, was killed in the Israeli attack earlier this week, but later it was revealed that he survived. In the early hours of the attack, in the absence of an official confirmation or denial from Hezbollah about the fate of the leader of this organization, Tasnim News Agency believed that Nasrallah had survived this attack unharmed.
However, finally today, on Sunday, September 28, Hezbollah confirmed Nasrallah’s death. According to Israeli sources in Tel Aviv, just before the attack, they had informed the United States, and Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli Prime Minister, had authorized the attack from New York, where he was present at the United Nations General Assembly.
Hezbollah without Nasrallah
Hezbollah’s roots date back to the second phase of Lebanon’s civil conflict between 1975-1990, and over the years, this movement has monopolized Lebanon’s political life. The cornerstone of Hezbollah’s ideology is the fight against Israel, which has been intertwined with Iran since its inception in 1982. In fact, the Islamic Republic has been assisting and training Lebanese paramilitary groups since the 1980s.
Iran’s intention, like back then, is to use Lebanese paramilitaries in the Middle East region. Nasrallah became the Secretary-General in 1992, and in the same year, Hezbollah participated in parliamentary elections, facing internal resistance within the party. A major change that Nasrallah’s leadership brought to Hezbollah’s history and ideology transformed the organization from a mainly sectarian and armed resistance movement with a radical outlook into a more influential, flexible, and rooted political and military force in Lebanon’s fabric and society.
Now, what is happening?
The killing of Nasrallah is the latest chapter in a long crisis that began on October 7th last year. Since then, Israel, in addition to carrying out a very heavy ground attack resulting in heavy casualties in the Gaza Strip, has eliminated several Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iranian Revolutionary Guard commanders.
The attack on Nasrallah takes place nearly two months after the removal of Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas, at his residence in Tehran.
At this stage, all eyes are once again turned to Tehran, unable to tolerate a similar blow in silence or with a symbolic reaction like what has happened in recent months.
Iran’s leadership, with Ayatollah Khamenei at the forefront, was preemptively moved to a safe location after the news of the attack on Beirut. They likely know they cannot directly confront Israel, which possesses obvious technological superiority, nuclear capabilities, and nuclear response.
For this very reason, Tehran has used its asymmetric engagement strategy over the years to indirectly strike its regional adversaries. However, the problem is that Tehran’s spearhead in the Middle East, Hezbollah, is now at odds with its leadership and facing many challenges.
Killing Nasrallah would push the region beyond what is imaginable, bringing it to the brink of conflict. Israel has been aware of the position of Hezbollah’s leader for some time, although many considered it unlikely, it is quite probable.
However, until a few months ago, no one thought that the leadership of Israel really wanted to eliminate him.
Hassan Nasrallah has been a thorn in the eye of Tel Aviv for over thirty years, but especially after 2006, he set clear rules for interacting with his eternal rival and in many cases avoided engaging in catastrophic consequences.
His killing today not only casts a shadow over the future of the Lebanese Hezbollah militia but also will impact Hezbollah’s position in the ongoing conflict. If Nasrallah tried in any way to prevent escalation of tensions, it is unclear what will happen with a change in leadership.
Ultimately, it is believed that the killing of the Secretary-General of Hezbollah Lebanon complicates Tehran’s calculations. Tehran, which has so far tried to stay far away from regional conflicts, has lost its closest ally who practically supported the development of the so-called Resistance Axis. Hezbollah is now in a tough and challenging situation.
If until two days ago, the Iranian leader Ali Khamenei praised the power of Lebanese militias and seemed to want to restrain them from attacking Israel, today something may have changed. The start of a regional war becomes closer and more probable, and many will not hesitate to blame Israel.
