Increase in Iran’s oil exports before Trump’s arrival
Increase in Iran’s oil exports before Trump’s arrival
Iran delivered one million and 886 thousand barrels of oil to China daily in the first half of December, the highest amount since 2018. Despite fluctuations in previous months, Iran’s oil exports are on the rise, as the new government of Donald Trump is about to begin, and the possibility of re-enforcing maximum pressure policy against the Islamic Republic has resurfaced.
Iran’s daily oil exports to China dropped by half a million barrels in November compared to the end of summer, reaching around one million and 310 thousand barrels. However, data provided by the Kepler commodities information company to Radio Farda shows that Iran’s oil deliveries to China have peaked again in December.
In the first half of the current month, Iran delivered one million and 886 thousand barrels of oil to China daily, the highest amount since 2018. Iran’s oil shipments to Chinese markets during that period have been around one million and 713 thousand barrels per day. It usually takes two to three weeks for Iranian oil cargoes to reach Chinese markets.
As a result, if the purchased cargoes of loaded shipments are delivered, Iran’s oil delivery to China in December will exceed 18 million barrels per day. In total, according to Iran’s Kepler statistics, in 2024, an average of 1.512 million barrels of oil are delivered to China daily, which is 34% higher than last year and double that of 2022.
Iran’s oil exports were about 25 million barrels in 2017, before the US withdrew from the JCPOA and imposed oil sanctions against the Islamic Republic. However, in the last year of President Donald Trump’s term in 2020, it dropped to under 340,000 barrels.
With the advent of the Biden administration, Iran’s oil exports have significantly increased each year.
Iran’s oil exports to the markets of China and Syria have been severely disrupted since October of this year due to the extensive missile attack by the Islamic Republic on Israel and the possibility of Israeli attacks on Iran’s oil facilities. However, in December, Iran’s oil exports to China have finally revived, but the delivery of oil to Syria has been halted following the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime.
Recent statistics show that Iran has delivered a total of 185 million barrels of oil to Syria in the current calendar year, averaging 56,000 barrels per day over the past 11 months. However, no oil shipments from Iran to Syria have been made this month. TankerTrackers, a company tracking oil tankers, reports that Iran’s last oil tanker, carrying 750,000 barrels, returned to Iranian waters without reaching the Suez Canal on the morning of Bashar al-Assad’s downfall.
Disruptions in Iran’s oil exports in the final months of this year have led to an increase in the volume of oil on Iranian waters to 17 million barrels in mid-December, four times higher than September and before Iran’s missile strike on Israel. Energy consultancy firm Vortex’s data shows that the total oil on Iranian waters in its own and East Asian waters, especially Singapore, is 48 million barrels, which is 12 million barrels more than October.
Despite the turbulence in Iran’s oil exports in recent months, Iran has revived its exports to China in December. However, it is uncertain whether Iran will be able to maintain its export levels to this country with the incoming administration of Donald Trump.
Small and independent Chinese refineries known as teapots are the sole customers of Iranian oil, and of course, they purchase Iranian oil through intermediaries under the names of Iraqi, Omani, Emirati, and especially Malaysian oil. A significant portion of Iran’s oil revenues disappears in the process of circumventing sanctions and rebranding oil.
The government of Masoud Pezeshkian has predicted in the budget bill for the next year the daily export of one million and 850 thousand barrels of oil, one third of which is allocated to the military forces of the Revolutionary Guards to strengthen the defense infrastructure, and the rest is divided between the government, the National Oil Company, and the National Development Fund.
