Confrontation with Hezbollah with US support
The world’s attention has been focused on the Gaza Strip over the past eleven months due to Israel’s military operations against Hamas, while a major war in Gaza has dominated the news, Iran’s proxy force, Hezbollah, continues its ongoing aerial attacks on northern Israel.
These attacks have displaced tens of thousands of Israelis from their homes. On Wednesday morning, the Israeli Security Cabinet voted to escalate safe return of evacuees to official war goals. This decision came hours after Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told US Special Envoy Amos Hochstein that he is not confident in a ceasefire agreement, and the only remaining way to ensure the return of northern Israeli communities to their homes is through military action.
This decision comes after months of unsuccessful mediation efforts between Netanyahu and the Biden administration. It has been reported that Netanyahu told Gantz and others on Tuesday that a military action will not guarantee the security of non-military Israelis and instead increases the risk of a wider regional war. However, since many previous mediation efforts with Netanyahu have failed and there is no other solution for the crisis on the northern border of Israel, Israeli leaders show that they are forced to reduce this threat.
Hezbollah is becoming stronger.
Pressures from the Biden administration on Israel to prevent a wider conflict with Hezbollah have forced Israel into a series of reduced exchanges. For example, after the killing of twelve Israeli children in a day, the White House spokesperson said that from our perspective, there is no reason for this issue to escalate significantly. In line with the United States’ desire to prevent the escalation of the situation in Israel, in response to this event in July, a targeted operation against Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr was carried out, which failed to reduce tensions.
While the White House may believe that limited engagements are better than extensive military operations, this strategy prevents Israel from achieving its security goals. This approach also brings the region closer to a broader conflict as both sides gradually escalate their attacks. This situation exactly implements the scenario that the United States government is strongly trying to prevent.
Furthermore, the delay in engaging with Hezbollah provides an opportunity for Hezbollah to enhance its capabilities as Iran injects more resources into it, jeopardizing U.S. interests more than ever. The annual threat assessment report by the U.S. National Intelligence Director’s office for 2024 states that Hezbollah’s aim to limit U.S. influence in Lebanon and the greater Middle East is stronger than ever. As Hezbollah grows stronger, it will have greater ability to threaten allies’ forces and also to undermine U.S. influence in the region. In addition to countering Hezbollah’s objectives, U.S. intervention and support can help restrain and deter Iran and show Russia, China, and other countries that the U.S. continues to support its allies and intends to maintain its influence in the region.
Since the capabilities of the Israeli army have been scattered in various fronts since the attacks by Hamas on October 7, 2023, Hezbollah has taken advantage of this opportunity to test the limitations of Israel’s air defense. Hezbollah has also utilized its intelligence surveillance and identification capabilities to prepare a list of important military, non-military, and infrastructure targets in Israel. The full extent of Hezbollah’s military capabilities is unknown, but estimates indicate that this group has more than 150,000 ground-to-ground missiles, which is more than ten times the number of missiles they had at the beginning of the Second Lebanon War in 2006.
Reports also indicate that this group has about 2,000 drones, 25,000 to 30,000 active forces, and a similar number of reserves. More importantly, these forces now also have combat experience as they have fought in the Syrian civil war in support of the Assad regime. According to reports, other fighters from Iraq and Syria also come to Lebanon to strengthen Hezbollah’s ranks. The total of this data indicates an increase in Hezbollah’s offensive capabilities over time. This threat is likely to intensify with the possibility of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons in the near future, which could create a definitive deterrent factor by supporting Hezbollah.
The longer Israel waits to confront Hezbollah, the more time it gives Iran to arm and train its proxy forces and move towards producing a deliverable nuclear weapon, which could likely increase the complexity and destructiveness of future conflicts.
Israel’s need for US support
If Israel initiates a military operation in southern Lebanon, it will need to sell weapons and provide urgent military assistance to ensure the effectiveness of its forces in southern Lebanon and maintain the security of its population. Considering the possibility of heavy Hezbollah airstrikes, the Iron Dome and David’s Sling tracking systems will be saturated. To maintain the full functionality of Israel’s air defense systems, the United States must provide necessary military assistance so that Israel can purchase the vital equipment it needs.
For further support of its ally, America should deploy necessary naval forces in the region to enhance cooperation between the two armies and support Israel’s complex but vulnerable air defense systems. The US Central Command must coordinate regional efforts to thwart missile attacks and Iranian and proxy forces’ assaults, similar to what the United States did during Iran’s attack in April. Israel’s strike on Hezbollah missile launch pads in August demonstrated Israel’s intelligence capabilities in predicting a broad attack.
To support this effort, the United States can provide assistance in identification and targeting capabilities through Aegis and E2 Hawkeye systems, as well as by sharing a wider range of intelligence support. US assistance in identification and targeting, combined with its regional efforts, enables Israel to fully focus its capabilities on Hezbollah and position Israel in the best position to reduce the effectiveness of Hezbollah’s air attacks.
The last way the United States can help Israel’s efforts is through overt support on the international scene. After the October 7 attacks, Israel received widespread support for its military operations in Gaza. However, with the continuation of the war and increasing public scrutiny of urban warfare violence and information warfare campaigns against Israel, this international support has diminished. Israel’s operations in Lebanon will be logical as Hezbollah has targeted Israel since October 8, 2023, and has launched over 7,500 ballistic missiles and drones since then. Destructive actors on the international scene will try to portray Israel’s actions as illegitimate. It is important to support the international legal system based on law that the United States supports military operations that defend the sovereignty of a democratic and allied state.
While many Americans are logically concerned about their country getting involved in another war in the Middle East, Israeli authorities have announced that despite stretching their forces to multiple fronts, they are ready to carry out a significant portion of the work. Israel will need US support through military assistance, intelligence backing for missile defense, and overt support on the international stage. There are clear reasons for the United States to support this effort, as countering Iran by weakening Hezbollah improves regional stability by reducing Iran’s strongest deterrent threat against Israel. Additionally, with further weakening of Hezbollah, Israel can play a greater role in combating Iran’s proxy forces, which in turn will strengthen US security interests in the region.
Just as supporting Ukraine allowed the United States to weaken one of its close rivals without deploying military forces, supporting Israel also gives the United States the opportunity to weaken another player, namely Iran, without American troops on the battlefield. Growing connections between the United States’ enemies worldwide, especially China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, should be noted, and the most effective way to do this is by utilizing the powerful network of United States alliances.
By supporting Israel’s efforts to secure its northern border, the United States can demonstrate its determination, revive its regional deterrence, and send a message to revisionist actors that it remains committed to defending its allies globally. This is particularly important as China, Russia, and Iran are consistently solidifying their geopolitical foothold in the region and seeking to disrupt the role of the United States as the guarantor of regional security.
Lebanon cannot control Hezbollah’s actions and has allowed Hezbollah to turn the country into an advanced operational base for Iran’s terrorist activities, whether willingly or unwillingly. Given this situation and Hezbollah’s direct attacks, it is understandable why Israel feels compelled to carry out military operations in southern Lebanon. Israeli officials have explicitly stated that they will fight alone if necessary, as the strategic interests of the United States lie in supporting Israel. Israel seeks to eliminate the threat of Hezbollah. Supporting Israel in this fight will be a crucial step in deterring and containing Iran, demonstrating that the United States can provide credible security guarantees and prevent Russia and China from filling their power vacuum in the region.
