Weakness in Iran’s foreign policy
It seems that the weakness in Iran’s foreign policy is largely due to the ambiguity surrounding the issue of weakness in Iranian society. Firstly, it should be noted that the ambiguity of such a plan and how it will be implemented is a major factor.
In other words, it is still unclear what exactly is supposed to happen in this plan. It seems that for now, it is simply about Azerbaijan creating a passage to access part of its territory inside Armenian borders that is adjacent to the Iranian border. This does not seem to imply any immediate changes to Iran’s borders with Armenia.
The second issue is the negative view that exists in a significant part of Iranian society towards Russia’s policies. In recent years, due to the deepening distrust between the government and the people, this feeling has intensified. The writer criticizes Iran’s policies towards Russia in many cases and believes that Russia often looks down on Iran. Russia’s policy towards Iran, in general, is seen as hindering Iran’s improvement of relations with the US and its inclination towards the West. However, it should be noted that escalating tensions between Iran and Russia, for various reasons that require a more detailed discussion, can also pose problems for Iran’s national interests. Therefore, it is undeniable that Iran’s policy in this regard should be rational and free from emotions, especially nationalistic sentiments.
The next issue that is worth discussing is the potential impacts of the establishment of the Zangezur corridor on Iran’s connectivity and access to Europe. Opponents of such a plan argue that its implementation would block Iran’s access to Europe and the Caucasus through Armenia. To provide a more precise response to this claim, it is necessary to assess the significance of Iran’s communication route through Armenia, especially when compared to the Caspian Sea route and Turkey.
It seems that the significance of Iran’s communication routes to Europe, Russia, and the Caucasus via the Caspian Sea or Turkey is more important than the communication route with Armenia. It should be seen whether these corridors will disrupt Iran’s connection to Armenia or not. This issue seems important, as opponents of this plan within Iran have already assumed it as a default. Regarding Iran’s communication routes, the reality is that pathways like the Middle Corridor connecting China through Central Asia and Azerbaijan to Turkey and Europe, or the East-West Corridor linking China through Dubai, Riyadh, and Haifa to Europe, as well as the Turkey Development Road project, which, if implemented, will connect the port of Faw in Iraq and the ports of Qatar and the UAE to Turkey and Europe, will play a much greater role in bypassing Iran and creating isolation in transportation for Iran.
The reason why Iran is usually not considered in such designs can be attributed to various reasons, from lack of appropriate infrastructure to sanctions. However, speaking more broadly, it must be said that due to the lack of attention by decision-makers in Iran to multilateral policies, Iran’s toolbox towards others is practically empty. Therefore, Iran usually cannot play a significant role in such programs.
Regarding the issue of the Delaram-Zangazur corridor, this matter is quite evident, and what is essential is to ensure that Iran does not block its communication with Armenia. Although this requires having tools of persuasion and threat simultaneously, as mentioned, currently Iran does not have such tools due to its linear communication with others.
The origin of creating such problems and challenges for Iran must be attributed to Iran’s inability to shape simultaneous cooperation and competition relationships with other countries, resulting in a reduction of Iran’s maneuvering power and role in the regional equations. In fact, by adopting an approach that can be referred to as a hedging approach, while expanding the areas of cooperation with other countries, suitable competitive tools and cards must also be utilized in relations with them in order to exert appropriate influence power to maximize the country’s interests.
