Where is Putin’s red line?
Where is Putin’s red line? Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia, has always followed a clear formula regarding escalating tensions. He tolerates increasing pressures for a while, but eventually his patience runs out and he reacts.
This background proves that his decision not to react strongly to Ukraine’s attack on the Crimea region should not be seen as evidence of the blurriness of his red lines. Since he came to power nearly a quarter of a century ago, Putin has sought to achieve a position equal to that of the West, led by the United States.
He once recognized NATO as a partner and even advocated for Russia’s membership in it. He has always believed that Russia’s size and historical role in global affairs deserve special treatment. From his perspective, Russia is not just like any other country, and the West must acknowledge this fact. Such a view meant that the West should consider Russia’s interests and its different interpretations of risks in its decision-making.
When NATO accepted the former Soviet republics of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania as members in 2004, Putin saw this as an existential threat. The prospect of Ukraine and Georgia joining NATO pushed Putin to a breaking point, becoming a key motivator for Russia’s attack on Georgia in 2008.
Russia’s reaction may have seemed radical at first, but it is entirely in line with Russia’s nature. Putin, like all Soviet leaders, harbors a deep and similar fear akin to the fear of Raskolnikov, the protagonist of Fyodor Dostoevsky’s classic novel ‘Crime and Punishment’. Someone who does not respond decisively to life’s humiliations is considered a cowardly being, without rights or interests to protect.
For Putin, accepting indifference or enmity from other powers and accommodating them has never been an option.
From the very beginning, Putin was completely explicit on this issue. When he started his presidency in Russia in 2000, he warned the West that if they abandon Russia, we will be forced to find allies and strengthen ourselves. Therefore, when the United States openly supported the revolution in Ukraine in 2014, which led to the overthrow of pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych, Russia reacted and occupied the Crimean Peninsula.
Barack Obama, the President of the United States, ridiculed Russia as a regional power, only strengthened Vladimir Putin’s determination to solidify Russia’s global position. In 2022, Putin demonstrated how serious he is in this goal by initiating a widespread invasion of Ukraine. Putin decided that if the West does not show the necessary respect to Russia, he will defend his country’s interests by force. What other option did he have?
Therefore, when Putin says that if America and Britain allow Ukraine to launch Western long-range missiles towards Russia, a NATO-Russia war will be inevitable, this warning should not be ignored.
While Putin has not directly threatened to use nuclear weapons and has only hinted that the changed nature of this war will require a specific response, some of his close associates have explicitly mentioned the threat of using these weapons.
Since the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, there have been significant concerns about the escalation of war and conflict beyond the borders of Ukraine.
The main challenge facing the West is to ensure that the tragic confrontation unfolding in Ukraine does not turn into apocalyptic disasters.
This means preventing an escalation of conflicts that could lead to broader confrontations between global powers and even the danger of using nuclear weapons.
