Trump’s More Serious Rival
When Jimmy Carter reached the presidency in 1976 and based his foreign policy on his human rights doctrine, he never imagined that the main blow would come from revolutionary rulers whose intellectuals used this doctrine to convey the message of their revolutionary actions.
A year and a half before the 1980 presidential election, the polls were much better for Jimmy Carter than they were for Joe Biden before Trump was declared guilty.
The optimistic Jimmy Carter suddenly faced a serious foreign policy crisis, a crisis that some experts consider the final blow to his chances of reelection.
The attack on the US embassy on November 4, 1979, completely turned the situation against Jimmy Carter. The hostage-taking of 66 American diplomats for 444 days put Carter in a very difficult crisis.
Alongside the disagreement over war or special operations between his National Security Advisor Brzezinski and Secretary of State Cyrus Vance, the limited operation ‘Desert Storm’ was eventually approved, an operation whose failure further reduced Carter’s votes. On the other hand, double-digit inflation reaching around 12% and the rise in gasoline prices meant Carter had no effective cards to play domestically. The focus of CNN, which had entered the media arena as the only 24-hour news network four months before the election, constantly emphasized the Carter administration’s weakness in freeing the hostages, changing the trends.
By unfortunate coincidence, Carter’s rival candidate was a handsome, charismatic, and professional speaker who managed to even turn California’s traditional electoral votes for Democrats toward the Republicans. The satisfaction of Californians with their Republican governor left no room for Jimmy Carter’s victory.
Now, 48 years later, a Democratic Party candidate is determined not to meet Carter’s fate. Joe Biden, who can somewhat be considered a candidate of the establishment in 2020, now at the age of 81, is once again considering running for candidacy.
Although Joe Biden comes from the center-right of the Democratic Party, the left wing of the Democratic Party, led by Bernie Sanders, has now, unlike four years ago, found serious disagreements with him over the issue and management of the Gaza war.
Biden has so far adopted the policy of ‘satisfy everyone to win,’ but there are still serious obstacles to his reelection.
On one hand, Joe Biden has fulfilled everything Israel wanted in the Gaza war so far, and on the other hand, he has constantly talked about efforts to end the Gaza war and prevent Netanyahu’s government from entering Rafah. Israel is not dissatisfied with Biden, but the left wing of the Democratic Party, close to Bernie Sanders, has many criticisms of him.
The reality is that Biden owes his 2020 victory to the unity of the two main streams of the Democratic Party and high public participation, especially among young people.
But now, in American universities, some of those same twenty to thirty-year-olds are shouting due to dissatisfaction with Joe Biden’s policies on the Gaza war. The lack of participation of these young people and the decrease in the number of young participants in the elections is a serious Achilles’ heel for Biden’s victory.
Another Achilles’ heel for Biden has been the weakness in convincing the left wing of the Democratic Party.
For victory, Biden must definitely bring the left wing of the Democratic Party, led by Sanders, to the polls to vote for him. Another point is Biden’s not-so-charismatic character, despite being a politician. This feature can lead independent American voters either to abstain from voting or to vote for Trump.
However, with all these strengths and weaknesses, Donald Trump being found guilty seems like a gift from the sky for Biden.
According to the latest Reuters poll, 10% of Republican voters and about 25% of independent voters have stated that they will not vote for Trump due to him being found guilty in the New York court, and this is a historic opportunity for Biden to overcome this electoral challenge with a strong campaign team.
Although Trump has a relatively attractive personality for his supporters, he fundamentally lacks even half of the prominent political backing and character of Ronald Reagan within the Republican Party and among Republicans. Thus, this is a golden opportunity that Biden can use for victory.
In the end, it must be said that if Joe Biden loses to Trump despite the serious challenges Trump is facing, perhaps American political history will not forgive him for running again at this age, nor the Democratic Party for defending Biden once more.
Because after Trump was found guilty in the New York court, Trump is no longer Biden’s main rival, but rather Biden’s performance and his efforts to unify the two main factions of the party will be the ultimate determinant.
