A great war is imminent.
A great war is now underway, as communication facilities in Lebanon have exploded, indicating an escalation of tension by Israel due to the scale and geographical extent of the resulting casualties.
Apparently, one day after the explosion, Israel carried out its deadliest airstrike since the beginning of the current round of conflicts in October against Beirut.
The wave of airstrikes has sparked immediate analysis focusing on how these attacks align with Israel’s strategy, what Israelis have been seeking, and especially why these attacks are happening now.
One of the main driving forces has been the personal motivations of Benjamin Netanyahu, who sees continuing and even escalating the war as his only ticket to maintaining the far-right coalition, thus keeping him in power and delaying the day when his corruption charges are to be examined.
Another motivator is the emotional factor, which includes Israel’s widespread hatred of Arabs, which intensified after Hamas’s attack on Israel.
The nature of operations involving explosive-laden communication devices is essentially another operational stimulus of this magnitude and complexity that includes penetrating supply lines and potentially creating dummy companies had to be planned and initiated long before.
Therefore, attempting to answer why this attack has been carried out now with guesswork about what was going on in the minds of the operation’s creators years ago is meaningless.
This type of operation, while requiring a lot of effort and cost, can quickly become useless if compromised.
If one of those thousands of pagers exploded prematurely or if Hezbollah leaders caught wind of this operation, all devices would quickly be thrown away. Perhaps the Israelis have concluded that Hezbollah is close to uncovering this operation.
None of the recent actions taken by Israel against Hezbollah, including the pager operations and walkie-talkies, even advance Israel’s immediate security goals, let alone long-term objectives.
Currently, Israel’s main goal regarding the borders of Lebanon and confrontation with Hezbollah is to enable Israeli residents who have been evacuated from northern Israel to return to their homes.
Escalation of violence and tensions along the border does not make this goal more achievable.
Pager and walkie-talkie attacks may be an attempt to strike a significant blow to Hezbollah without resorting to a full-scale war, including a ground invasion of Lebanon. On the other hand, it may be a preparation for such an invasion by weakening Hezbollah’s ability to defend itself.
In any case, Hezbollah feels under significant pressure to respond. Hezbollah’s leader, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, has publicly promised to retaliate at times and places of Hezbollah’s choosing.
Hezbollah has good reasons to continue efforts to avoid an all-out war, but recent Israeli actions are so provocative that they cannot go unanswered.
In Washington, a key question is how much the United States’ patience borders on Israeli crimes.
In addition to the broader political and diplomatic costs that the United States incurs from its close relationship with Israel are increasing.
The appropriate reaction of the United States is not only to recognize terrorism and oppose it regardless of who is committing it, but also to protect its interests by distancing itself from close ties with a country that is increasingly becoming a rogue state.
