Aliyev is plotting war
Aliyev is plotting war. Ilham Aliyev, the President of Azerbaijan, in his latest speech at the first session of the country’s seventh National Assembly, made several harsh statements against Armenia, which reveal his true intentions.
He is not an advocate for peace but rather aims to prepare for the next round of military actions in southern Armenia. His remarks about Armenia and international politics only prove that Aliyev and his regime, instead of seeking peaceful solutions, are increasing military power, engaging in aggressive rhetoric, and destabilizing the region.
Threat and accusations of malice in Armenia or provocation from Azerbaijan
Aliyev openly accuses Armenia of revanchism or attempts at revenge, arguing that not only the opposition forces but also the Armenian government itself desires to avenge the results of the Second Karabakh War.
These claims are made while the Armenian government has repeatedly called for peace with Baku, voluntarily returning villages in the Tavush region to Baku, which resulted in prolonged street protests and unrest in Armenia. Nikol Pashinyan, the Prime Minister of Armenia, during his presence at the United Nations in New York, also called for utilizing regional cooperation opportunities instead of conflict and even proposed the idea of buying gas from Baku last week.
However, this peaceful approach by the Armenian government seems to have led to a misunderstanding and miscalculation by Aliyev, who perceives the Armenian government’s stance as weak. He has once again resorted to threats and bluster to threaten the stability of the South Caucasus at the behest of Britain, Israel, and Turkey, especially since, like in 2020, the void created by the U.S. presidential elections, the war in Ukraine, and repeated Zionist attacks on Palestine and Lebanon have given him the illusion that another historical opportunity may have arisen to encroach on southern Armenia and create a fake Zangezur corridor with the aim of creating a fanciful connected Turkish world and then a Turkish NATO, executing the orders of the head of the British MI6 intelligence agency during his trip to Baku. During his visit to Baku, the MI6 chief supported intensifying intelligence and security cooperation among the Caucasus and Central Asian countries in a manner similar to the Five Eyes alliance among the five Anglo-Saxon countries.
Aliyev claims that Armenia’s policy presents a completely contradictory image to what has been announced. However, behind these words lies Aliyev’s desire to justify the execution of his new militaristic plans and readiness for a new aggression. By accusing Armenia of preparing for provocations, he is preemptively crafting an excuse for potential military actions.
Strengthening the Baku army prepares itself for a new round of aggression
Aliyev himself speaks of the significant increase in Baku’s military power following the Second Karabakh War, establishing new structures in the armed forces, increasing the number of special forces and commandos, and strengthening the Baku army with modern equipment. These actions are not just for protecting Baku’s borders; he is clearly preparing for a new war. Aliyev boasts of his hollow military power instead of talking about peaceful negotiations and diplomatic ways to resolve disputes, arguing that dialogue with us in the language of extortion and ultimatums will be impossible.
It is a historical irony that Baku, which is constantly threatening Armenia, claims to want dialogue and avoiding conflict, accusing this country of extortion, revenge, and warmongering. Aliyev, who has destabilized the region by purchasing massive amounts of weapons from dozens of countries over the past two decades and has been the initiator of all regional conflicts, cannot tolerate even a small purchase of weapons by Armenia from India and France, in order to, in his imagination, have fewer problems for future military adventures. In reality, this means that Baku refuses dialogue and chooses the path of force.
Provocation and creating fear of Western influence
Aliyev also accused the West in his speech of using Armenia as a tool against Baku. It seems these accusations are part of a propaganda campaign to discredit any international community efforts to intervene in the Caucasus conflict and support reaching a peaceful solution. Aliyev claims that Western countries are trying to increase tension in the region by providing Armenia with weapons, but the real aim of these statements is to divert public attention from Aliyev’s aggressive plans and Baku’s ongoing militarization under the pretext of an external threat.
Baku, with this type of propaganda, seeks to have Armenia alone in negotiations with this country in order to impose maximum pressure on it and extort Yerevan as much as possible. In fact, Baku, with this rhetoric, aims to eliminate all negotiation frameworks involving regional and extraregional mediators, an issue that Iran must pay attention to in order to stop Baku and its supporters’ illusions about creating a Turanian NATO corridor in southern Armenia.
The irony of the situation is that Baku, despite claiming independence from the West, is fully compliant with the U.S. and the UK, carefully receiving and implementing these countries’ policies to reduce Russia and Iran’s influence in the Caucasus. Extensive cooperation with NATO, frequent military propaganda exercises with other countries, the dominance of the UK and the U.S. over this country’s economy, and extensive dealings by the Aliyev family and his wife with the UK, some of which were revealed in the Panama Papers, and the recent suspicious visit of the MI6 chief to Baku indicate bitter realities in this context.
The real intention is not peace but war
Analyzing Aliyev’s statements reveals that his goal is not the peaceful resolution of the Caucasus conflict but rather preparing Baku for a new round of aggression. He strengthens his invading army under the guise of defending Baku, portrays Armenia as an aggressive enemy both inside and outside the country, and creates an excuse for future provocations. The war in Karabakh is not over in his mind, and for Aliyev, peace is not a priority.
The simple conclusion is that Ilham Aliyev is preparing not for peace but for war, to fulfill the orders of his British, Zionist, and Turkish masters to suffocate Iran geopolitically, diminish the effectiveness of Iran’s North-South Corridor, and establish NATO, Zionists, Wahhabis, and Takfiris in broader parts of the border with Iran. However, his time for rampaging is over, and he will not find an opportunity for such actions. The conditions in Iran and the world are completely different from 2020, and Iran will not hesitate even for a moment to defend its interests in the Caucasus against any delusional aggressor.