Aliyev, the Incompatible Neighbor
Aliyev, the Incompatible Neighbor
On Tuesday night, Ilham Aliyev made harsh statements against Iran and Armenia, which at first glance are not only a threat to Armenian sovereignty but also a military and security threat to the existence and continuity of Armenia. His remarks indicate Aliyev’s serious plan to destroy the Republic of Armenia, and he is eagerly waiting to occupy this country and create a NATO Turanian corridor.
What did Aliyev say about regional issues?
Aliyev pointed out that the Zangezur corridor must be opened and it will be opened again. This issue shows that Aliyev has no interest in using the Aras corridor that Iran is building, and his previous statements in this regard were not serious. In another part of his speech, he announced that the Zangezur corridor should be opened as soon as possible, and the sooner Armenia realizes this, the better. He claimed that Azerbaijan has waited four years for this issue to be resolved through negotiation and asked how patient Azerbaijan should be.
He added that when there is a road from southern Armenia, why should we go to Nakhchivan via other roads? He meant that we do not want to use the road that passes through Iran. Furthermore, Aliyev threatened that Armenians should not upset us because we are the leading power in the region. These statements indicate that, firstly, a direct threat against the sovereignty of Armenia and the Syunik province has formed in Aliyev’s mind, and he wants to occupy the south of this country in the near future. In part of his speech, he warns Armenia that we are not a source of danger for you, and do not let a barrier be created between Nakhchivan and the Republic of Azerbaijan, and the Zangezur corridor must be opened.
Here, Aliyev also warns Iran that you have prevented the implementation of this corridor, so Armenia must stand against Iran and create this corridor. However, Armenia has so far resisted this issue because it knows well that if this fake corridor is formed in the south of this country, it will gradually pave the way for identity, civilizational, economic, cultural, and political changes in Syunik, and Turkey and Baku will prepare the ground to separate this region from Armenia. In such a situation, Armenia will face countries that are not friendly to it, and its destruction will gradually become possible.
Elsewhere, Aliyev said Armenia is a source of threat to the region, and Armenia’s armed resolve will lead to a new tension in the region, but we want peace. Here, Aliyev accuses Armenia of warmongering, while the volume of weapons Azerbaijan receives from Israel, the UK, Italy, and others is much greater than the armaments Armenia receives from India and France.
Moreover, the weapons received by Armenia are mainly defensive, but Azerbaijan’s weapons are offensive. Additionally, the range of Azerbaijan’s weapons is much greater than what is needed to counter Armenia, and some of them have no application for conflict with Armenians, such as naval ships, which shows that Azerbaijan might act against Iran in the future with Israel’s provocation.
Another point is that Aliyev described Armenia as a fascist country that has been ruled by fascist leaders for nearly 30 years. He also claimed that fascism must be destroyed, and this phenomenon will either be destroyed by Armenia or Azerbaijan itself will destroy it.
Here, Aliyev seeks to demonize Armenia to legitimize his actions against this country because if there was an assumption regarding Karabakh that many countries considered it part of Azerbaijan’s territory, this issue is not acceptable regarding Syunik.
Such an issue is not accepted in international law that a country wants to occupy and destroy another country. One of the things Azerbaijan can do to legitimize this intention is to accuse Armenia of following fascism to demonize it and justify aggression against this country as its right.
Aliyev also addressed Pashinyan, saying that he should meet with the residents of Western Azerbaijan in Armenia and address their concerns because they were unjustly expelled from their land, and this issue is not our territorial claim but a human rights issue.
He also continued that as long as Azerbaijanis cannot settle in Western Azerbaijan, including in Zangezur, this issue will not be removed from the agenda, and both Armenia and its supporters should know this. Here, Aliyev, with his harsh statements, is once again laying the groundwork for occupying southern Armenia.
From his statements, it becomes clear that Aliyev seeks to force the rulers and people of Armenia through threats and intimidation to cede southern Armenia to Baku so that Aliyev can create the Zangezur corridor, a corridor that will be used for transferring goods and energy without Armenia’s sovereignty.
If Aliyev cannot achieve this through intimidation and bullying, he plans to launch a military attack on Armenia in the coming months, and this issue is certain. Therefore, if Armenia stands against Azerbaijan’s demands, the attack on Syunik will occur to prepare the ground for creating the fake Zangezur corridor.
Why has Aliyev become aggressive again?
But what reasons have led to Aliyev’s unprecedented aggression and outspokenness? One of the reasons for these positions is that considering regional developments and events happening in Syria, as well as the start of Donald Trump’s presidency in the USA, and given Iran’s not-so-favorable economic conditions, Aliyev is under the illusion that a space has been created for pursuing his regional ambitions.
In fact, he thinks that since the conditions of the resistance front in Syria are not as favorable as before, he can pressure Iran to deter the country from its firm and decisive stance regarding the Zangezur corridor. On the other hand, he wants to make Baku appear important in Trump’s eyes, a country that can supply the West with the gas and renewable electricity it needs and can act against Iran and Russia.
However, his calculations are wrong because Iran is not in a weak position, and Iran will decisively defend its rights and interests. On the other hand, it should be noted that Trump is interested in supplying Europe’s gas with American resources.
Therefore, Trump does not want to hand over this significant profit and benefit to Azerbaijan, just as he does not want to hand over this market to Russia. In fact, Aliyev’s action of selling sanctioned Russian gas in global markets is an action that Trump will not accept and will act against it, and Aliyev’s calculations in this regard are completely wrong.
On the other hand, he thinks he can create ethnic tension in Iran after years of investment so that Iran becomes distracted by the developments in the Caucasus. This is also a naive assumption, and the recent national solidarity in the case of the truck drivers trapped at the Poldasht and Bazargan border showed how far the Pan-Turkists’ propaganda about the dear Azeris is from reality and how much the voice of the oppressed part of the Iranian people has remained unheard due to the howls of the Pan-Turk wolves.
In any case, the point is that Aliyev always takes the initiative to avoid falling behind. He knows that there are many open cases in Iran regarding his actions that need to be addressed one by one. He knows that Iranians have an unparalleled national pride, and the fact that extensive insults have been made against Iran, its traditions, culture, figures, and religion in Aliyev’s official media, and efforts are being made to create a fake anti-Iranian identity, has caused anger and resentment among Iranians.
Aliyev is fully aware that in the minds of many Iranians, the events after the meeting with Raisi and Aliyev’s subsequent behaviors, such as not attending the farewell and inauguration ceremonies of the new president, have intensified questions and ambiguities among Iranians. He is trying to divert these events by moving forward and tries to make statements against Iran and Iranian officials to prevent these demands from being raised. His insults to Imam Juma of Ardabil, who in recent years played an important role in exposing Aliyev’s links with extremists and guiding cultural and social activities related to the Caucasus, are made with this aim. On the other hand, Aliyev has overstepped his bounds and indirectly demanded the dismissal and punishment of Ameli by the leadership and his apology.
It is obvious that leaving these statements by Aliyev unanswered will lead to new delusions in the future, and he must appropriately understand the consequences of these statements. On the other hand, Aliyev is aware that Iran has demands from him due to Baku’s cooperation with Israel, violations of freedom, problems of Azerbaijan’s Shias, and environmental issues this country creates in the Caspian Sea.
Aliyev seeks to ensure that these mentioned demands are not heard through these controversies and, on the other hand, seeks excuses through his propaganda to prevent exchanges between the people of Iran and the people of the Republic of Azerbaijan.
As a result, the resumption of cultural, economic, social, educational, and commercial connections and raising awareness among the people north of the Aras through face-to-face interactions has been delayed so that he can portray his fake narrative and false propaganda about Iran and Iranians in the north of Aras as reasonable and logical. He knows that Iran, given its inseparable ties with the people north of Aras, can make them aware of the realities, and Aliyev has concerns about this issue. Of course, he is making calculation errors. These behaviors cause the Iranian people to become suspicious of Aliyev’s intentions towards Iran, and demands are created from the people to deal with Aliyev’s insults, demands similar to those that solidified and flourished the national pride and identity of Iranians after the Battle of Chaldiran despite Iran’s defeat by the Ottomans.
Regarding the reason for Aliyev’s hate speech, one point is that considering the pre-planned visit of the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran to Azerbaijan, Aliyev tried to influence this trip and change the negotiation atmosphere in his favor because he knew that during Mr. Ahmadian’s visit to Azerbaijan, the issue of the fake Zangezur corridor would be raised. He tried to have the upper hand in the negotiations with this propaganda.
On the other hand, Aliyev knows that Iran is planning to set up a comprehensive agreement with Russia in various fields and is concerned that in the space created after this agreement, he will not be able to fulfill what the West expects of him and put pressure on Russia and Iran geopolitically. This issue is also important to him, and he wants to overshadow the atmosphere created by the signing of this agreement with these statements.
What should be done?
Iran must insist on its principled positions openly, explicitly, and decisively in these conditions and warn Aliyev that it remains opposed to the creation of the fake Zangezur corridor because this issue will lead to Iran’s geopolitical suffocation, cutting off the border with Armenia, reducing the effectiveness of Iran’s North-South corridor, and surrounding Iran by NATO, Pan-Turk, and separatist forces. Therefore, if Baku’s intention in creating the corridor is a simple connection to Nakhchivan, Iran’s safe and cheap route is always available.
Certainly, in any future action to create the fake Zangezur corridor, Zionists and Takfiri forces sent from the Caucasus and Central Asia to Syria will participate. If the Takfiris from Central Asia and the Caucasus return to their homeland after being free from Syria, they will engage in sedition near Iran’s borders. But if they remain busy in Syria, they will not have the opportunity to create sedition on Iran’s borders.
Also, Iran should abandon the policy of fatherly silence and neglect in the face of Baku’s media insolence and present the realities in suitable artistic and media formats to the residents north of the Aras and the people of Iran, especially the noble Azeris. It has been proven repeatedly over the past two decades and especially in the last four years that silence in the face of Aliyev’s media attacks worsens the current situation.