Aliyev, the Intransigent Neighbor
Aliyev, the Intransigent Neighbor
On Tuesday night, Ilham Aliyev made sharp remarks against Iran and Armenia, which at first glance are not only a threat to Armenia’s sovereignty but also a military and security threat to the existence and continuation of Armenia. His statements indicate Aliyev’s serious plan to destroy the Republic of Armenia, and he is eagerly waiting to occupy this country and create a NATO Turanian corridor.
What did Aliyev say about regional issues?
Aliyev pointed out that the Zangezur corridor must be opened and will be opened again. This issue shows that Aliyev has no interest in using the Aras corridor that Iran is building, and his previous statements in this regard were not serious. Elsewhere in his remarks, he announced that the Zangezur corridor must be opened as soon as possible, and the sooner Armenia realizes this, the better. He claimed that Azerbaijan has waited four years for this issue to be resolved through negotiation and asked how patient Azerbaijan should be.
He added that when this road exists in southern Armenia, why should we use other roads to go to Nakhchivan? He meant that they do not want to use the road that passes through Iran. Furthermore, Aliyev threatened that Armenians should not upset them because they are the leading power in the region. These statements show that Aliyev has a direct threat in mind against the sovereignty of Armenia and the Syunik province and that he wants to occupy the south of this country in the near future. In part of his remarks, he warns Armenia that they are not a source of danger for them, and they should not allow a barrier to be created between Nakhchivan and the Republic of Azerbaijan, and the Zangezur corridor must be opened.
Here, Aliyev also warns Iran that they have prevented the implementation of this corridor, so Armenia must stand against Iran and create this corridor, which Armenia has resisted so far because it knows well that if this fake corridor is formed in the south of this country, it will gradually pave the way for identity, civilizational, economic, cultural, and political changes in Syunik, and Turkey and Baku will prepare to separate this region from Armenia. In such a case, Armenia will face countries that are not friends with it, and gradually the possibility of its destruction will be provided.
Elsewhere, Aliyev said that Armenia is a source of threat to the region, and Armenia’s armed will lead to a new tension in the region, but they want peace. Here, Aliyev accuses Armenia of war-mongering, while the volume of weapons that the Republic of Azerbaijan receives from Israel, the UK, Italy, and others is much more than the weapons Armenia receives from India and France.
Moreover, the weapons received by Armenia are mainly defensive, while Azerbaijan’s weapons are offensive. Additionally, the range of Azerbaijan’s weapons is much more than needed to counter Armenia, and some of them have no application for conflict with Armenians, such as naval frigates, which shows that Azerbaijan might act to harass Iran in the future with Israel’s provocation.
Another point is that Aliyev described Armenia as a fascist country that has been ruled by fascist leaders for nearly 30 years. He also claimed that fascism must be destroyed, and this phenomenon should either be destroyed by Armenia or Azerbaijan will destroy it itself.
Here, Aliyev seeks to demonize Armenia to legitimize his actions against this country because if there was an assumption regarding Karabakh that many countries considered it part of Azerbaijan’s territory, this issue is not acceptable regarding Syunik.
Such an issue is not accepted in international law, where a country wants to occupy and destroy another country. One of the things Azerbaijan can do to legitimize this intention is to accuse Armenia of following fascism to demonize it and portray aggression against this country as its right.
Aliyev also addressed Pashinyan, saying he should meet with the residents of Western Azerbaijan in Armenia and address their concerns because they were unjustly expelled from their land, and this issue is not our territorial claim but a human rights issue.
He also continued that as long as Azerbaijanis cannot settle in Western Azerbaijan, including in Zangezur, this issue will not be removed from the agenda, and both Armenia and its supporters should know this. Here, Aliyev, with his sharp remarks, is again laying the groundwork for occupying southern Armenia.
From his overall statements, it becomes clear that Aliyev seeks to force the rulers and people of Armenia through threats and intimidation to hand over southern Armenia to Baku so that Aliyev can establish the Zangezur corridor, a corridor that will practically be used for the transfer of goods and energy without Armenia’s sovereignty.
If Aliyev cannot achieve this through intimidation and bullying, he plans to use military force in the coming months to attack Armenia, and this issue is certain. Therefore, if Armenia stands against Azerbaijan’s demands, an attack on Syunik will occur to prepare the ground for creating the fake Zangezur corridor.
Why has Aliyev become harsh again?
But what reasons have led to Aliyev’s unprecedented harshness and bluntness? One of the reasons is that given the regional developments and events in Syria, as well as the beginning of Donald Trump’s presidency in the USA, and considering Iran’s not-so-favorable economic conditions, Aliyev is under the illusion that a space has been created to pursue his regional ambitions.
In fact, he thinks that since the situation of the resistance axis in Syria is not as favorable as before, he can pressure Iran to deter it from its firm and resolute stance regarding the Zangezur corridor. On the other hand, he wants to portray Baku as an important country in Trump’s eyes, a country that can provide the renewable gas and electricity energy needed by the West and can act against Iran and Russia.
Of course, his calculations are wrong because Iran is not in a position of weakness, and Iran will firmly defend its rights and interests. Moreover, it should be noted that Trump is interested in supplying Europe’s gas with American sources.
Therefore, Trump does not want to hand over these immense benefits and profits to Azerbaijan, just as he does not want to hand over this market to Russia. In fact, Aliyev’s action of selling sanctioned Russian gas in global markets is an action that Trump will not accept and will act against him, and Aliyev’s calculations in this regard are completely wrong.
On the other hand, he thinks he can create ethnic tension in Iran after years of investment to distract Iran from the developments in the Caucasus. This is also a naive idea, and the recent national solidarity in the case of the truck drivers stranded at the Poldasht and Bazargan borders showed how far the Pan-Turk propaganda about the dear Azeris is from reality and how much the voice of this oppressed part of Iran’s people has remained unheard due to the howling of Pan-Turk wolves.
In any case, the point is that Aliyev always takes the lead to avoid falling behind. He knows that there are many open cases in Iran regarding his actions that need to be addressed one by one. He knows that Iranians have an unparalleled national pride, and the fact that in Aliyev’s official media, extensive insults to Iran and its traditions, culture, dignitaries, religion, and civilization have been made and efforts are being made for fake anti-Iranian identity building has become a factor of anger and irritation for Iranians.
Aliyev is fully aware that in the minds of many Iranians, the events after Raisi’s meeting and Aliyev’s subsequent behaviors, not participating in the ceremonies of honoring and mourning him, and not attending the inauguration of the new president have intensified questions and ambiguities among Iranians, and with a forward escape, he tries to marginalize these events. He tries to make statements against Iran and Iranian officials to prevent these demands from being raised. His insults to Ameli, the Friday prayer leader of Ardabil, who has played an important role in exposing Aliyev’s ties with Takfiris and guiding cultural and social activities related to the Caucasus in recent years, are made with this goal. On the other hand, Aliyev has overstepped his bounds and indirectly requested Ameli’s dismissal and punishment by the leadership and his apology.
It is obvious that leaving these statements by Aliyev unanswered will lead him to new delusions in the future, and he must understand the consequences of these statements appropriately. On the other hand, Aliyev is aware that Iran has demands from him due to Baku’s cooperation with Israel, violations of freedom, the problems of Azerbaijani Shiites, and the environmental issues this country creates in the Caspian Sea.
Aliyev seeks to ensure that these aforementioned demands are not heard with these commotions, and on the other hand, through his propaganda, he seeks excuses to prevent exchanges between the people of Iran and the people of the Republic of Azerbaijan.
As a result, the resumption of cultural, economic, social, educational, and commercial connections and the increase of awareness among the people north of the Aras through face-to-face interactions have been delayed so that he can read his fake narrative and false propaganda about Iran and Iranians in the north of the Aras as reasonable and logical. He knows that Iran, given its inseparable bond with the people north of the Aras, can make them aware of the realities, and Aliyev has concerns about this issue. Of course, he is making calculation errors. These behaviors cause the Iranian people to become suspicious of Aliyev’s intentions towards Iran, and demands arise from the people to confront Aliyev’s insults. These demands are similar to the demands that solidified and flourished the national pride and identity of Iranians after the Battle of Chaldiran despite Iran’s defeat by the Ottomans.
Regarding why Aliyev is spreading hatred, one point is that given the pre-planned visit of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Secretary to Azerbaijan, Aliyev tried to influence this trip and change the negotiation atmosphere in his favor because he knew that during Mr. Ahmadian’s visit to Azerbaijan, the issue of the fake Zangezur corridor would be raised. He tried to have the upper hand in the negotiations with these atmospherics.
On the other hand, Aliyev knows that Iran is planning to arrange a comprehensive agreement with Russia in various fields and is worried that in the atmosphere created after this agreement, he will not be able to achieve what the West expects from him and put pressure on Russia and Iran geopolitically. Therefore, this issue is also important for him, and he wants to overshadow the atmosphere resulting from the signing of this agreement with these statements.
What should be done?
Iran must insist on its principled positions publicly and with clarity and firmness and warn Aliyev that it still opposes the creation of the fake Zangezur corridor because this issue will cause geopolitical suffocation for Iran, cut off the border with Armenia, reduce the effectiveness of Iran’s North-South corridor, and surround Iran by NATO, Pan-Turks, and separatists. Therefore, if Baku’s intention from creating the corridor is a simple connection to Nakhchivan, Iran’s safe and cheap route is always available.
Certainly, in any future action to create the fake Zangezur corridor, Zionists and Takfiri forces sent from the Caucasus and Central Asia to Syria will participate. If the Central Asian and Caucasian Takfiris remain occupied in Syria, they will not find the opportunity to create unrest at Iran’s borders.
Also, Iran must abandon the policy of paternal silence and negligence in the face of Baku’s media insolence and present the realities in suitable artistic and media formats to the residents north of the Aras and the people of Iran, especially the noble Azeris. Over the past two decades, and especially in the last four years, it has been repeatedly proven that silence in the face of Aliyev’s media attacks worsens the current trend.
