The US rejects the JCPOA
Is the US response to Iran’s proposed package positive or negative? American journalist Lara Rosen, in her latest analysis, wrote that sources say the US has probably made its decision regarding Iran’s response to the EU’s draft to revive the JCPOA, but is consulting with its allies, including the three European countries and Israel. She previously quoted Ali Vaez, saying, ‘I doubt that the US response to Iran’s demands will be yes. The US response is likely to be a no or something in between. If Iran continues to make more demands, I don’t know how this process can continue.’
Recent news has leaned more towards a negative reaction from the US than a positive one. Iran has provided its response to the European initiative for finalizing the Vienna agreement, expecting the US to say yes to this plan by Wednesday. However, it is said that not only has the West not approved this plan, but now American media warns that the agreement might not be reached.
Congress’s Achilles’ heel
The US midterm congressional elections in November are approaching, and the Biden administration’s main priority is undoubtedly to focus on winning these elections. Anything that might harm this victory will certainly not be overlooked. The media affiliated with Israel has so far tried to disseminate information suggesting that Biden and the Democratic administration have given many concessions to Iran.
Although last week’s events in the US were not directly related to the Iranian nuclear issue, they had significant repercussions that could lead to increased pressure on Iran. These include the news of an assassination attempt on John Bolton and the attack on Salman Rushdie. This has caused the voices of opponents of the nuclear agreement with Iran in the US, especially the Israeli lobby, to be raised once again.
Critics of the agreement with Iran have long been deterring US leaders in Congress from any agreement with Iran. This lobby has the capability to bring down the Democrats in the elections. Perhaps this is why Lara Rosen mentioned in her writing that the Biden administration is consulting with its allies, including Israel.
The Axios news outlet, quoting American officials, wrote that President Joe Biden’s administration has tried in recent days to assure Israel that no new concessions have been given to Iran. Axios, quoting a source in the White House who was not identified, added that the agreement might be closer than two weeks ago, but some gaps still exist. Axios had previously reported that Yair Lapid, the Prime Minister of the Zionist regime, claimed in a message to the White House that the draft agreement presented by the EU to Iran has crossed the Biden administration’s red lines.
Suspension is detrimental to Iran
There is a possibility that if Biden feels the agreement will jeopardize his position in the upcoming elections, he might not just respond negatively but keep the agreement suspended until the elections are decided. But is this suspension beneficial for Iran? Certainly not. Given the fast pace of developments in the international arena, and that the stakeholders in the agreement are not limited to Iran and the US, any change in the situation can affect the future of the agreement. For instance, Russia is one of the main players in this field.
Events like the assassination attempt on Alexander Dugin, a person considered to be Putin’s ideological advisor, which resulted in the death of his daughter, can increase tension in international relations. Since Iran defines itself as part of the Eastern bloc and an ally of Russia, it will naturally not be unaffected by the impact of international developments resulting from this assassination or similar events in the relations between Russia and the Western world.
Any delay and suspension in the agreement can change both the priorities of the international system and Iran’s possibilities. If viewed pessimistically, it might lead to the failure of the negotiations, especially when it seems that the time frame for reaching an agreement is fully completed and the time for making a big decision has arrived.