The Arabs’ Fear of Trump’s Unpredictable Moves
The Arabs’ Fear of Trump’s Unpredictable Moves
Saudi Arabia and the UAE have announced their commitment to reducing tensions with Iran while preparing for Donald Trump’s return, hoping he can end a year of war in the Middle East. However, these two countries are also concerned that Trump’s unpredictability could further ignite tensions.
According to Iran Gate, the Financial Times website, referring to the Gulf Arab countries’ concern about being drawn into an unwanted tension between Iran and the US, wrote that leaders like Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman were among Trump’s most enthusiastic Arab supporters during his first presidency and welcomed his hostile approach towards Iran.
But in the years since, the two Gulf energy powerhouses, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, have shifted course, seeking engagement with Tehran amid doubts about the US commitment to their security.
This became more urgent after Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, which sparked a wave of regional hostilities and heightened tensions between the US and Iran, with both Riyadh and Abu Dhabi seeking to stay on the sidelines of the conflicts.
Gulf leaders, who traditionally prefer Republicans, have welcomed Trump’s re-election and hope that this businessman and dealmaker will fulfill his campaign promise to establish peace in the region.
However, diplomats and individuals close to regional governments say they are also worried that Trump might give Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu more leeway to escalate tensions with Israel’s enemies and increase tensions with Iran, which could lead to a full-scale conflict that might spill over into the Gulf Arab countries.
A senior Arab diplomat said, ‘If Trump puts you in a position where you have to decide which side to take because he moves against Iran, that’s a big problem. Trump is not a man who takes no for an answer.’
As a sign of Riyadh’s desire to maintain its cold peace with Iran, Mohammed bin Salman hosted senior Iranian officials at an Islamic conference in Jeddah on Monday, where he accused Israel of committing genocide in Gaza. He also condemned Israeli attacks on Iran and called on the international community to stop Israel’s hostile actions on Iranian soil.
Separately, Anwar Gargash, the UAE’s Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, said at a conference in Abu Dhabi on Monday that Trump’s future administration should pursue a comprehensive approach instead of reactive and piecemeal policies. These remarks emphasize the change in Saudi and UAE policy compared to Trump’s first term, as they actively engaged with him after his rise to power in 2017 following years of Arab frustration with US policy fluctuations and a sense of regional detachment.
Both Riyadh and Abu Dhabi welcomed the Trump administration’s hawkish stance towards Iran, his decision to unilaterally withdraw from the JCPOA, and the imposition of crippling sanctions on Iran. However, as Trump’s maximum pressure campaign increased regional tensions, they became aware of their vulnerability to Iranian hostility.
After the 2019 missile and drone attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil infrastructure, which temporarily wiped out half of the country’s crude oil production, the Gulf Arab rulers’ faith in the US’s willingness to defend them was shaken. Following this incident, while Washington blamed Iran, Trump preferred to respond with more sanctions rather than military action.
Giorgio Cafiero, CEO of the Gulf State Analytics firm based in Washington, said that by the end of Trump’s first term, regional leaders realized that they had not succeeded in making the Gulf Arab kingdoms safer during Trump’s tenure. With trust in the US security umbrella weakened, Saudi Arabia and the UAE decided that de-escalating tensions with Iran was the best option to protect their countries and allow them to focus on economic diversification.
This led to a China-brokered agreement in March 2023, which restored diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran after a seven-year rift. Gulf leaders are now concerned that a broad and all-encompassing war in the Middle East could undermine their domestic development plans. A person familiar with the Saudi government’s thinking said the China-backed agreement is beneficial for the region, and Saudi Arabia will remain committed as long as Iran is.
He added that the Saudi kingdom believes the focus should be on economic development and achieving its vision, which ultimately offers the region a path beyond conflict, a vision that should benefit everyone. In this regard, Fayadh Al-Ruwaili, the Chief of Staff of the Saudi Armed Forces, was in Tehran on Sunday for talks with his Iranian counterpart, Mohammad Bagheri, about defense cooperation as part of the Beijing agreement.
However, while Trump promises to establish peace in the Middle East, he has declared his support for Israeli military attacks and appears poised to appoint anti-Iran war hawks in his administration. Elise Stefanik, Trump’s nominee for US ambassador to the United Nations, wrote on social media platform X that the US is ready to return to President Trump’s maximum pressure campaign against Iran.
Gulf Arab leaders are worried that the newly elected US president, who implemented a series of pro-Israel policies during his first presidency, might embolden Netanyahu instead of restraining him. The Arab diplomat said, ‘We will stand on the sidelines. We are protected,’ but added that any defense system can be overcome, ‘It’s no joke.’ However, Mohammed bin Salman and Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the UAE’s head of state, are eagerly anticipating closer personal ties with Trump compared to current US President Joe Biden.
The relationship between these Arab statesmen and Trump and his circle continued after leaving the White House, with Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law, and Steven Mnuchin, Trump’s former Treasury Secretary, receiving billions of dollars from Gulf sovereign wealth funds for their investment firms.
After taking office, Biden initially criticized Saudi Arabia and Mohammed bin Salman, pledging to reassess Washington’s relationship with the kingdom following the 2018 murder of Jamal Khashoggi. But contrary to this promise, the relations between the two countries improved as Biden sought a trilateral agreement that would lead to the US agreeing to a defense treaty with Saudi Arabia in exchange for normalizing its relations with Israel.
These plans were disrupted by the Gaza war. Trump, who considered the normalization of relations between some Arab countries, including the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco, with Israel under the Abraham Accords as one of his greatest foreign policy achievements, might be looking for his grand deal.
But this requires ending Israel’s wars against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon and gaining concessions to create a Palestinian state. Another Arab diplomat said, ‘Our feeling is that President Trump wants a deal to end the war in Gaza. Will it be what everyone wants? Maybe not, but it will end the war.’