Europe is the only one optimistic about the revival of the JCPOA
Europe is the only one optimistic about the revival of the JCPOA. A day after the Resalat newspaper warned the government not to sign the agreement until the safeguards issue is resolved, Ebrahim Raisi also announced in a press conference that the agreement must be accompanied by resolving the safeguards issues and that they will not compromise on neutralizing and lifting sanctions.
On the other hand, the Kayhan newspaper is warning these days that Iran should abandon the negotiations. The negative signals from Iran come at a time when the comings and goings between Israel and the United States, along with this country’s threats regarding non-compliance with a potential agreement between Iran and the U.S., are increasing.
An Israeli official has announced that the head of Israel’s intelligence agency, Mossad, will travel to the U.S. in the coming days to hold talks with American officials about the revival of the JCPOA. David Barnea is set to participate in closed sessions of Congress regarding the nuclear agreement. Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid has also said that they will fight the nuclear agreement with all their might, and signing the nuclear agreement with Iran is not binding for Israel.
We will do everything in our power to support our security. According to the Jerusalem Post, Israel, regardless of the outcome of the negotiations, intends to continue the secret actions of its intelligence agencies to neutralize Iran’s nuclear program and strengthen the military for an attack on Iran. This newspaper pointed to Tel Aviv’s decision to focus its efforts on delaying or weakening the lifting of sanctions, writing that the goal is to persuade the parties to reduce Iran’s economic benefits.
According to this publication, Israel intends to continue working on what it calls regional security architecture. Meanwhile, it seems that only the Europeans are optimistic about the revival of the agreement, to the extent that the EU’s foreign policy chief has said we have reached a decisive moment in the nuclear negotiations, and I am optimistic in this regard.
The U.S. has rejected Iran’s safeguards request.
Iran’s insistence on closing the safeguards issues simultaneously with the agreement comes at a time when Reuters, in a report citing informed sources, about resolving the safeguards issues quoted an American official who wanted to remain anonymous, writing that Iran initially sought a commitment in this regard that the agency would complete its safeguards investigations by a certain date, which, according to this American official, the U.S. and its partners rejected.
The Reuters report adds that this American official says Iran later stated that if the safeguards issues are not resolved by the time the agreement is resumed, it reserves the right not to take the necessary actions to limit its nuclear program, which was supposed to be done on that date.
Four options facing Iran
This American official claims that if Tehran does not cooperate with the agency by the time the agreement is resumed, Iranian officials will face a choice: either the lifting of sanctions will be delayed or even foregone, or the agreement will be implemented despite ongoing investigations into the raised issues. Reuters continues to write that it seems we are facing four possible outcomes. In the first, Iran will address the agency’s concerns in time, and the 2015 nuclear agreement will be revived.
In the second, Tehran does not satisfy the agency’s concerns and refrains from taking nuclear actions to finalize the agreement, and Washington also refrains from lifting the sanctions specified in the final stage of the proposed agreement, although the nuclear restrictions and lifting of sanctions specified in the preliminary stages of the proposed agreement will occur.
According to this report, in the third scenario, Tehran might implement the agreement despite ongoing agency investigations, a policy change that might be difficult for Iranian officials to digest or gain acceptance for domestically. The fourth possibility could be that political pressures cause the agency to conclude its investigations in Iran despite dissatisfaction with Iran’s responses, although American officials say they will not pressure this institution.
Details of the draft agreement from Israel’s perspective
In the media and news silence of the nuclear team regarding the details of the draft and the agreed-upon items so far, Israeli media have become the source of news. Jonathan Lis in Haaretz, published in Israel, has written that the draft agreement for the revival of the JCPOA specifies a 165-day timeframe from the date of signing until the full implementation of the agreement. According to the understandings presented in the EU’s proposed draft, this agreement will be completed after four stages.
The first stage, called day zero, is the day of signing the agreement. It is planned that before the day of signing the agreement, the parties will finalize the release of prisoners from Iran in exchange for frozen funds and an initial reduction in sanctions.
At the same time, Iran will be required to stop all violations of the agreement but can retain the uranium reserves it has accumulated so far. Critics of the agreement insist that the government should bring the agreement to Congress for approval in the second stage.
In fact, a maximum of five days after the signing date, the agreement will be placed on the table of Congress, and from that moment, members of Congress will have 30 days to study and review the agreement, and during this period, there will be no possibility of reducing sanctions that require approval.
According to this newspaper, one of the issues that could make it difficult for Biden to approve the agreement is the concern that Russia might exploit its relationship with Iran and turn it into a haven to circumvent sanctions. In the third stage, 60 days after the agreement is approved in Congress, a representative of the U.S. State Department will inform the UN Security Council and the International Atomic Energy Agency of the decision to return to the JCPOA.
In the fourth stage, which is another 60 days later, the time for full implementation of the agreement arrives. The Americans and Iranians will issue a joint statement committing to this process, and the United States will lift other imposed sanctions. After 165 days from the day of signing the agreement, the final stage will also be implemented. The United States will officially return to the agreement and lift the remaining sanctions, allowing trade with Iran. On this occasion, Iran will dismantle the excess enrichment infrastructure.