Russia and China set the last ten days of September on fire
Russia and China set the last ten days of September on fire. Vladimir Putin’s speech on September 21, seven months after his key address and announcement of his invasion of Ukraine, once again shook the world. There can be no doubt about the importance of this speech. While world leaders were negotiating in New York to resolve the Ukraine crisis, the news of Putin’s plan to hold a referendum in the occupied territories of Ukraine had already sounded the alarm for the United States and its allies.
In the 24 hours before this speech, which was delayed several times, Western security and military officials expressed similar reactions, and gradually, serious analysis about the main danger ahead became evident in their statements. Almost simultaneously with these developments in the confrontation between Russia and the West, the spokesperson for the Taiwan Affairs Office in the Chinese government officially announced the country’s stance on Taiwan, stating that the ruling Communist Party’s plan is the peaceful return of Taiwan to China.
This stance was announced before Putin’s speech and naturally worried the Chinese as well, just like the Westerners. China’s immediate reaction was to request a quick ceasefire in Ukraine. What has happened in these sensitive conditions is the alarm sounding for the United States and its allies on both sides of the world.
Putin changed everything
Throughout the days and weeks of his invasion of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin has referred to what he started and continued as a ‘special operation.’ He has never explicitly spoken about his country entering a war and has carefully avoided putting his country in a wartime state by not issuing a general conscription order.
Putin’s speech on Wednesday, September 21, changed this particular equation. He issued an order for conscription and used the term ‘limited conscription’ in his speech. However, this so-called limited conscription will bring 300,000 reserve forces and those outside the military structure to Ukraine. The direct result of this shift in Putin’s policy and rhetoric is Russia entering a wartime state. Now, we must wait for domestic reactions.
In the hours following his speech, reports emerged about the readiness of Russian security and military forces to confront anti-war and anti-conscription protests and gatherings in various cities across the country. It is unlikely that Russian investors and economic elites, some of whom have already raised their voices in protest and even risked their lives, will easily accept the wartime situation.
By holding a referendum in eastern Ukraine and preparing to separate these areas, Putin has effectively taken the biggest step towards creating an unprecedented tension. If these referendums are finalized, these areas will become part of Russian territory, and as a result, the Ukrainian army will be declared by the Russians as invaders on their soil.
In the hours before Putin’s speech, security and military experts’ warnings about these referendums went beyond the existing political considerations in officials’ statements. They correctly pointed out that the danger of using various weapons and methods by Putin is serious, and he has paved the way for using tactical nuclear weapons under the pretext of defending his territory. Astonishingly, Putin also spoke explicitly about this and issued a nuclear threat to the West, warning them with surprising phrases that he is not bluffing.
The hours following Putin’s speech were hours of turmoil in global financial markets, and most investors and businesses were converting their assets into the safest available items, with the dollar being the safest. As a result, the value of the dollar reached its highest level in decades, breaking all records moment by moment. The ruble lost its value again, and the initial reactions of Russian markets indicated their concerns.
Fake referendums and ridiculous conscription
The conscription of Russians in the new phase has become a strange process. Russian men are fleeing the country, and their reluctance to be on the battlefield and participate in the invasion of Ukraine has become more transparent and public than ever. Russian officials are helpless in this specific matter. Domestic developments in Russia are moving in a dangerous direction for Vladimir Putin. The borders of this country with Georgia and Mongolia, and in general, any border through which Russian men can leave the country, have experienced astonishing congestion.
The Russian referendums, whose results are to be announced in a few days, were already fake and theatrical, and their childishly conducted process is becoming more ridiculous by the moment. It has reached the point where Russian soldiers and agents go to people’s homes in the areas where the referendum is held and forcibly obtain ‘yes’ votes from them.
The natural result of this process is heavy pressure on various officials under Putin’s command. Senior military officers and generals are under intense pressure and are frustrated and angry that Putin has handed control to officials with a security background and no military experience. Various officials across Russia are also dissatisfied, and multiple local authorities have joined forces in a limited and not very successful attempt to collect signatures under a harsh statement against Putin. Russian diplomatic officials have also bowed under various pressures.
Sergey Lavrov is extremely bewildered in New York. He was so agitated and distressed during the Security Council meeting on the Ukraine crisis that he resorted to cursing and insulting Ukrainians and Volodymyr Zelensky. His speech at the United Nations General Assembly also reflected anxiety and disarray.
China removes the masks
Western officials were preparing to react to new statements from Chinese officials about Taiwan when Putin drew all the attention to himself. The spokesperson for the Taiwan Affairs Office in the Chinese government officially announced in a press conference that the Chinese government’s policy is the peaceful return of Taiwan to China. These phrases and terms are openly contradictory to the political realities of Taiwan. Taiwan has never been part of communist China to return to it.
For some experts, these new official Chinese statements are seen as a softening of their stance, and the lack of military threats is considered a positive point. What is actually happening in East Asia is the intensification of the military presence of Taiwan’s Western supporters, and now Canadian warships have joined their American counterparts and are conducting maneuvers and patrols in the waters around Taiwan.
Special political developments in Asia and the increasingly serious competition between China and India have practically forced China to turn its foreign minister’s meeting with Antony Blinken into an opportunity to display its power in New York, and the foreign minister’s speech at the General Assembly showed no signs of peaceful intentions. The United States, in its new cooperation programs with Japan and South Korea in these last days of September, has brought these two neighboring countries of China closer than ever before and finalized a military cooperation agreement between the two countries, which is one of the biggest steps the United States has taken to showcase its power against China.
The final days of September are the hottest days in international politics since the early days of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. A few days remain until the end of September, and we must see how the first weeks of autumn will unfold.
Other articles have been exclusively prepared by Iran Gate.
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