Dispute over Street Share in Iran’s Nationwide Protests
The dispute over street share in Iran’s nationwide protests revolves around a number, and it seems this number determines the legitimacy of the protesters. For this reason, conservative media, by releasing some videos of recent protests and counting the protesters present, have concluded that contrary to the exaggerations of foreign media, the number of people on the streets is small. In contrast, by publishing images of official marches, which are usually held in a safe environment with the presence of a specific group in complete calm, they aim to show that they have the upper hand.
From 20 people to 100,000
Kamal Hosseinpour, a representative from Rasht, has stated that most riots are exaggerated. For instance, about 20 people are on the street, but opponents exaggerate, so these events are not very important. Another representative also said that gathering 100 people once a week cannot be considered nationwide protests. Nezamuddin Mousavi, the spokesperson for the Parliament’s presidium, also mentioned that according to the statistics provided by the Minister of Interior, during the peak of the clashes and riots on September 21, no more than 45,000 people were present in gatherings across all cities in the country.
Ultimately, the main view of the conservative ruling faction is that since we do not see the tightly-knit ranks of protesters, possibly modeled or simulated after the 1979 revolution marches, this is not a widespread protest movement. We are merely facing scattered groups that do not necessarily represent the demands of the majority of the people.
However, Ahmad Naderi, a member of parliament, admitted in one of these TV debates that according to estimates, the number of protesters on the streets is 100,000. He emphasized that even if their number is 50,000, what is happening is a movement that needs to be rooted out. He also acknowledged that there might be those who are sympathetic, but we have no tools to measure them.
Protesters at Home
But how can we count these protesters at home? The CEO of the ISPA polling center, noting that a significant number of people are angry and that the extent of dissatisfaction should not be limited to the number of participants in protest gatherings, has said that these are a very small percentage of all those who are angry.
Many do not consider nationwide protests effective for various reasons and do not participate, or another important variable that also affects the potential for protest in surveys is the fear of the costs of participating in protests. Mohammad Rahbari, a social network researcher, referring to the statement of the same parliament member, raises the question of whether the actual number of protesters is indeed this small.
His answer is no. He points out that if there are 50,000 active protesters on the street, it can be estimated that millions of potential protesters are at home, meaning those who express their protest through social networks. In his view, there are many signs for this claim, including low participation in the presidential election and the number of invalid votes in the same election. Online activism on social networks by artists and athletes also reflects deep levels of protest in society.
Even 40 million views of a protest song by a singer that went viral in a short time indicates that we have millions of protesters at home, those who are dissatisfied with the current situation but have remained at home due to fear of confrontation or concern about the outcome of these nationwide protests.
He believes that ignoring the protesters, both those at home and those who have taken to the streets, is of no benefit to the government and ruling bodies and is merely sweeping the issue under the rug because, in his opinion, a large portion of the people these days are hesitant, worried, and waiting.
The Number of the Silent is Important
Abbas Abdi, a journalist and political analyst, also pointed out that one of the government’s mistakes is thinking that the protesters are just the ones who protested in the streets, saying they count them as no more than 40,000 people. This is a mistake. Look, the number is not important here at all.
When you want to protest in your neighborhood, university, or any other environment, you always look at what others think and how they behave. Their behavior is 10 to 1 or 8 to 1. Even their supporters are passive. So, in my opinion, the number of protesters is not important at all. The number of the silent is important, or those who show some level of support.
Abdi continues to say that the silent ones are looking for an idea to support, an idea that has a vision for the future. These protests, while justified, do not offer any vision. For example, when you talk about the opposition, the entire opposition sitting abroad seems like a joke to consider them the leaders of the opposition for Iranian society. But the problem is that we do not have a force that gives hope for the future and provides a vision.
I Come to the Street to Be Seen
But why is the street so important, and why is the struggle over the share of the dominant discourse or the critical and protesting discourse from it so significant? The street is one of the most important spaces in urban social life and the arena of politics and the reproduction of power relations and possibilities for resistance. The street provides a civil space where destructive forces, isolated and desperate groups, and disillusioned individuals meet. Additionally, the street is where all the internal contradictions of the city have the opportunity to emerge and manifest.
It is only in the streets that marginalized and sidelined groups can appear publicly and therefore politically and find an opportunity to be acknowledged by members of the political community. The occupation of the streets, whether by the police or by the general public, is usually to prove control and dominance and to be seen and heard. Therefore, the street is simultaneously an arena of conflict and political demonstrations and also an arena of repression and control.
The challenge and difficulty lie in recognizing and understanding the interwoven and complex situation and conditions of public space and striving to create the best while resisting the worst.
In Iran Gate, special reports and analyses related to Iran’s nationwide protests are published, which you can read.
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