Iran Gate Report on the Plan Russia Drew for Iran
The Iran Gate report on the plan Russia drew for Iran highlights the possibility of activating the snapback mechanism against Iran and the return of all UN sanctions against Iran, which had been lifted by the JCPOA resolution. This possibility is now more likely than ever, and all clues again point to Russia, a country that has been obstructing the process from the beginning of the JCPOA to its revival negotiations. Now, by dragging Iran into the Ukraine war, it seeks to disrupt relations between Iran and Europe and prevent the realization of the JCPOA and the lifting of sanctions.
Former diplomat Hamid Aboutalebi specifically discussed three diplomatic steps taken by Russia to divert the JCPOA. These three steps ultimately lead to the violation of Resolution 2231 and, through the snapback mechanism, return Iran to Chapter VII of the Charter, making Iran more dependent on Russia to exit it again. With its subtle maneuvering, Russia has turned the JCPOA and UN Security Council Resolution 2231 into a crisis in the international security arena for Iran.
How Russia Played with Iran
Hamid Aboutalebi wrote that in the first step, Russia took on the role of spokesperson in the Vienna negotiations due to Iran’s weakness and complicated the talks, preventing them from reaching a conclusion. This way, on one hand, it did not remain alone on the global political stage regarding sanctions, and on the other hand, by utilizing methods to combat sanctions and Iran’s position, it reduced the pressure of sanctions on Russia.
In the second step, in the international security arena, it linked the attack on Ukraine to NATO expansion, thereby legitimizing the attack on Ukraine and attempting to align China and Iran, which have been NATO’s neighbors since the last century, with its front. A tactic that China cleverly did not accept but paved the way for Iran’s third step.
In the third step, it brought the issue of drones to the UN Security Council, connecting the Ukraine issue to Resolution 2231, putting Iran at risk of violating this resolution and the return of all sanctions that were lifted with the JCPOA. It linked a matter that Iran could have previously resolved as a negotiation issue to international security.
If we consider Aboutalebi’s analysis alongside the claim of the director of Russia’s National Energy Security Fund, who said that Iran’s sanctions benefit Russia, the puzzle becomes more complete and the situation clearer. He said in a TV program that Iran remains under sanctions, and these sanctions will become tougher, which, to be honest, is good news for us. In the future, we need to enter into economic partnership relations and have ambitious plans for investment, including in Iran’s oil and gas sector.
Iran Being Outmaneuvered by Russia in the Drone Affair
Although Iran’s Foreign Ministry has completely denied the claim of using Iranian-made drones in the attack on Ukraine, it seems that Iran has been outmaneuvered by Russia in this matter. Russia, from the very beginning, with a calculated plan, involved Iranian drones in the Ukraine war. Initially, it admitted that we purchased drone shipments from Iran and used them in the Ukraine war, but later questioned the quality and power of Iranian drones.
Russia stated that Iranian drones do not have the necessary quality and effectiveness desired by Russia in the war. According to Aboutalebi, after all it has done, Russia now claims that in drone technology and other military technology aspects, it is much more advanced than Iran and does not need Iran, and for this reason, it opposes the UN Security Council’s investigation committee.
He believes that if this claim were an independent issue, it would seem correct, but now it is Iran and the violation of Resolution 2231 that has become the main issue of the council, not the power of making or using drones. It is Russia that is trying to prevent the investigation of drone attacks on ordinary Ukrainians under the guise of supporting Iran.
Principlist political activist and former parliament member Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh also pointed to this issue, saying that regarding the dispatch of drones and other Iranian weapons, it was actually Russia that raised much of this news and claims, not Iran. As official authorities in the Islamic Republic of Iran never confirmed the dispatch of these equipment and weapons to Russia for use in the Ukraine war, but from the very beginning, Russia stated that we purchased drone shipments from Iran and used them in the Ukraine war.
According to him, now with the European actions in sanctioning Iran, it is Russia that is most pleased because Moscow, with its actions, managed to create a sanctioned partner for itself in the Ukraine war and add another country to the list of sanctions related to the Ukraine war alongside it.
The UN Investigates Iran
Russia achieved its goal and involved Iran in the Ukraine conflict. First the French, then the British and Americans claimed that Iranian drones used in the attack on Ukraine are equivalent to missiles, even though missile sanctions against Iran under Resolution 2231 continue until 2023. For this reason, the UN Security Council held a closed-door meeting on Wednesday at the request of the USA, UK, and France to discuss Russia’s use of Iranian-made drones in its military aggression against Ukraine.
French Ambassador to the UN Nicolas de Rivière told reporters as he left the meeting that we had very clear evidence that the drones were sent from Iran to Russia and used in Ukraine. Ultimately, on Friday night, the European troika accused Iran and Russia of violating Resolution 2231 in a two-page letter and called for a technical investigation into the weapons used in the Ukraine war.
Germany, the UK, and France wrote in a two-page letter on Friday, October 21, which reached UN Security Council members and was seen by Reuters, stating that we call for an investigation by the UN Secretary-General’s team responsible for monitoring the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 2231, and we are ready to support the Secretary-General’s work in conducting a technical and impartial investigation. Meanwhile, Western officials have announced that there is no focus on reviving the JCPOA, and these negotiations are currently at an impasse and are temporarily off the agenda.