The dollar will reach 50,000 tomans this year
The dollar will reach 50,000 tomans this year. According to Iran Gate, the recent surges in the exchange rate in the market and the dollar price surpassing the 41,000 toman range have fueled speculation that the dollar could reach 50,000 tomans this year more than ever.
Before the recent price fluctuations in the currency market, many believed that the likelihood of the dollar breaking the 40,000 toman barrier was very low, and if such an event were to occur, it would be postponed to the next year. However, the developments in the free currency market have unfolded in such a way that not only has the 40,000 toman barrier been broken, but the dollar price is rapidly increasing.
How the psychological resistance of the dollar was broken
This mindset had created a kind of psychological resistance around the 40,000 toman range for the dollar price, but breaking this resistance has now become a signal that increases the likelihood of the dollar reaching 50,000 tomans.
However, currency market experts and activists believe that the boycott of the Islamic Republic by the European Union and the United States and the stagnation of JCPOA negotiations are among the main reasons for this occurrence. On the other hand, the disastrous policies of the Raisi government in managing the country’s economy have made the foundations of the rial shakier and weaker than ever.
These factors have combined and led to the easy breaking of the 40,000 toman psychological resistance for the dollar price. Meanwhile, it was predicted in November that if the currency price broke the 38,000 toman resistance, it would very likely break the psychological resistance as well.
Reaching both goals
Given the fluctuations in the free market dollar rate and the speed of price increase in the market, one can once again envision the 48,000 toman resistance for the dollar. Just as the 38,000 toman resistance was very decisive in the 30,000 toman range, and two days after it was broken, the price surpassed 40,000 tomans, it is now predicted that we will once again witness the repetition of the same scenario in the Tehran currency market.
In other words, it is expected that if the 48,000 toman price for the dollar is realized, it is very likely that the 50,000 toman resistance, which will be the second target, will also be broken quickly and without hesitation. In fact, it can be said that the main target is the 48,000 toman resistance, as it can act like a key to open the door to the 50,000 toman channel for the greenback.
We will see the 50,000 toman dollar this year
Many currency analysts believe that if the macroeconomic variables continue to evolve in this way, there is definitely a possibility of breaking both resistances mentioned in this analysis within the remaining three months of this year. Of course, the government and the central bank can take temporary measures to stop the increase in the dollar rate, but the point is that for such programs to be implemented, the central bank must have considerable access to currency resources.
While the JCPOA has not been resolved and there is no positive outlook for the revival of the agreement, it is very unlikely that such an opportunity will be available to the government. Oil revenues have significantly decreased, and on the other hand, the necessary currency for imports has not been provided.
Even if this plan is implemented and dollars are injected into the market to reduce the dollar price, there will still be no barrier to price growth. Rather, such actions will only act as speed bumps and merely delay the realization of these disasters.