Putin in a Checkmate Position

Putin in a Checkmate Position

The Hidden Truth

Putin in a checkmate position: According to Iran Gate, the statements of Putin and Prigozhin after the Wagner Group’s rebellion created more doubts than they resolved. However, one thing is entirely clear: the Kremlin leader is certainly not known for attributing features of betrayal, and there is always a sense that something still needs to happen.

While various narratives of the events that occurred on Saturday, June 24, in Russia are being quoted, it took Vladimir Putin two days to break his silence and announce to Russia that the danger was gone.

President Putin said the insurgents failed to divide Russia and the country was saved from destruction thanks to the loyalty of the army and its security services. In a brief speech, the Kremlin leader stated that he prevented a bloodbath because, in any case, the uprising would have been suppressed. However, before the march was stopped 200 kilometers from the capital, he refrained from ordering fire on the rioters, trying to present himself as magnanimous and credit himself.

Putin then assured that he would adhere to his agreement with Alexander Lukashenko, the President of Belarus, who acted as a mediator, and would allow the Wagner mercenaries to go to Belarus without the need for a trial, or if they wish, they could join the Russian Ministry of Defense. Two days after the Wagner mercenaries’ rebellion, the President tried to show that the situation was still under his control and everything had returned to normal, but his attempt was not very convincing. The Kremlin leader is not known for traits like forgiving betrayal, and in his speech, he never mentioned the leader of the rebellious paramilitaries, Yevgeny Prigozhin.

Meanwhile, the special security measures in Moscow were immediately lifted, and in a video broadcast on television, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu was seen visiting soldiers on the front lines. Although some prominent Russian bloggers following the conflict in Ukraine said that this visit took place on Friday, a day before the Wagner Group’s rebellion, in the border region of Belgorod.

Prigozhin’s Truth

Yevgeny Prigozhin also attempted to justify himself by saying that it was a protest, not a coup, and expressed his truth about this rebellion, which for a few hours raised concerns that Russia might be plunged into a civil war. He stated that their action was a protest against the top Russian military commanders, Defense Minister Shoigu and Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov, because they had ordered private militias, including the Wagner Group, to sign contracts with the Ministry of Defense by the first of July.

Prigozhin said that he and other Wagner officers did not accept this and intended to lay down their arms in Rostov on June 30, but they were bombed, and they set out on a ‘March for Justice’ towards Moscow in protest. The Wagner Group leader emphasized that they stopped their advance 200 kilometers from the capital to avoid Russian bloodshed and thanked Lukashenko for finding a solution to end the conflict.

However, there is still no clear or specific idea about what happened during the tense hours of that Saturday and what the consequences will be. The fact that Prigozhin himself is still accused of armed rebellion by the General Prosecutor’s Office, and there is no confirmation of where he currently is, whether in Minsk or elsewhere, is evidence of this reality.

So far, we know that on Saturday, June 24, the rebellious Wagner mercenaries, about 25,000 strong, managed to capture the strategic city of Rostov in southern Russia without firing a shot and then moved hundreds of kilometers along the highway towards Russia without facing any resistance.

If the official narrative is that the authorities wanted to avoid bloodshed, other sources have proposed different interpretations, one of which is that the lack of resistance against Wagner by forces directly linked to the Kremlin, such as the FSB and the National Guard, was guaranteed. The aim was to allow Prigozhin to gain an advantage in the conflict with the established army under the command of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, with whom even Putin does not have a friendly relationship.

Protest or Coup Attempt

In short, this rebellion was the result of deep tensions and disagreements between Prigozhin and war supporters from various factions and bloggers who praised the conflict and war but increasingly criticized its management by the Russian armed forces and military. Therefore, if it is not currently clear what the fate of the Wagner Group and its leader will be, one cannot report an effective shift at the top of the Ministry of Defense.

What Change Will Occur in Africa

In the list of statements made after one of the craziest days in recent Russian history, Sergei Lavrov’s words cannot be ignored. In an interview with Russia Today, he assured that the Wagner paramilitaries will not leave Mali and the Central African Republic and, contrary to popular belief, will continue their activities in these two countries.

The Wagner mercenaries first gained fame during the 2014 Crimea invasion when they supported the Russian army. They were later seen in Syria alongside Bashar al-Assad’s forces and then reached Libya in Africa, where they supported General Khalifa Haftar.

The Wagner Group is a private military company but also a nebulous network of companies and organizations with political influence, which enjoyed implicit support from the Russian government. In January 2023, the United States designated this group as an international criminal organization due to numerous and brutal executions of civilians documented by the United Nations in the Central African Republic and Mali. According to various studies, the Wagner Group has its operational and economic base in Africa and conducts its activities in thirteen different countries: Libya, Eritrea, Sudan, Algeria, Mali, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, South Sudan, Guinea, the Central African Republic, Madagascar, Mozambique, and Zimbabwe.

In some cases, the collaborations are of a military nature, and in others, they are purely commercial. Their goal is to gain economic benefits by exploiting local resources and, on the other hand, to create a network of countries aligned with Russian positions and opposed to the West.

However, it is in the Central African Republic where they have established their most profitable companies. In 2018, the Wagner Group quickly participated in military operations against armed rebels seeking to attack the government of President Faustin-Archange Touadéra to facilitate arms transfers and provide training and protection. Their companies, after controlling security, entered the natural resources sector with privileged access to gold and diamond mines and control over some ministries.

A similar situation occurred in Mali. Following two coups, relations between Bamako and Paris, a former colonial power, deteriorated, and after the failure of the French anti-terrorist force Operation Barkhane, France’s withdrawal left the field open for the Russians. However, the Malian government denies the presence of Wagner mercenaries and only recognizes the presence of Russian instructors who have arrived based on a cooperation agreement with Russia.

Setting aside the accusation of betrayal that Vladimir Putin has leveled against Prigozhin, it seems the Russian Foreign Minister is directly addressing his partners in countries where Wagner mercenaries operate as an armed branch of the Kremlin, to assure them of the continuation of the Wagner Group’s activities.

Unexpected News in the Prigozhin Saga

According to Alexander Lukashenko, the President of Belarus, the Wagner Group leader who rebelled against the Kremlin’s military leadership on Saturday, June 24, has returned to Russia. According to the state news agency Belta, Lukashenko told reporters in Minsk on Thursday that Yevgeny Prigozhin is in St. Petersburg. The President added that the Wagner mercenaries’ leader might have gone to Moscow.

Prigozhin left Russia and went to Belarus after stopping his group’s march 200 kilometers from Moscow and according to an agreement between Putin and Lukashenko. The Wagner founder has not appeared in public since the end of the rebellion. According to the Interfax news service, Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s spokesman, told reporters on Thursday that the Kremlin is not tracking Prigozhin’s whereabouts and has no intention of doing so.

Under the deal brokered by Lukashenko, Putin agreed that Prigozhin and any Wagner fighter wishing to join him could go to Belarus, and Putin promised to waive criminal investigations against them for armed rebellion. However, it now seems that this deal is unraveling. When Lukashenko was asked about rumors that Putin wanted to eliminate Prigozhin, he responded that some Kremlin officials favored this solution, but such an action would push Russia into a civil war.

In response to the question of what will happen next, he said, ‘Strange things happen in life, but if you think Putin is so evil and vengeful that he will eliminate him tomorrow, I say no, that will not happen.’

The United States Does Not Know Where Prigozhin Is

The United States of America has no information about Prigozhin’s whereabouts. Andrew Bates, the Deputy White House Press Secretary, announced this in a press briefing and added that ‘we continue to monitor the Wagner Group.’

Almost two weeks after the incident, there is still no clear understanding of what happened or did not happen at the highest levels in Russia. The statements of Putin, Prigozhin, and others have not helped uncover the facts or understand their consequences. Should Wagner’s leader’s adventure be archived, and is the political fate of both now sealed? It is still not possible to make a definitive statement, and in the uncertainty following the rebellion, any hypothesis remains suspended for now. However, it is highly unlikely that the Kremlin leader will easily overlook this major transgression.