Silent Tragedy at South Pars Gas Field
The silent tragedy at the South Pars gas field is not a new issue reported by Iran Gate. Recently, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have made concerning claims about the Arash oil field, but there are alarming events happening at the South Pars gas field that have received less media coverage. These events are even more worrisome than other similar cases.
The South Pars and North Dome gas fields are the largest gas fields in the world, shared between Iran and Qatar. Both countries extract gas in this region, but the lack of investment by Iran in South Pars has allowed Qatar to extract several times more gas from this field than Iran, essentially taking Iran’s underground resources easily.
But the more concerning point here is that a bigger disaster is on its way in southern Pars. Even if billions of dollars are invested in this field today, it can only reduce the magnitude of this energy crisis for Iran. In other words, an energy crisis for Iran is inevitable. The question is whether we can contain it as much as possible or we have to wait for a new major crisis.
From harsh European winters to pleasant spring in Qatar
When Iran’s negotiating team, led by Ali Baqeri, was leaving the negotiation table, the Qataris were busy making multiple contracts to sell gas to Europeans. While Kayhan newspaper and hardline conservatives promised a harsh winter in Europe, the Qataris were taking Russia’s place in the European energy market.
In other words, not only was a harsh winter not coming for the blue-eyed countries in Western Europe, but the incompetence of the diplomats of the Islamic Republic was giving a pleasant spring to the Qatari citizens. A spring that will cost the blackening of Iran’s future in the energy market for its people and future generations.
Oh, there is no luck on our side.
As previously mentioned, the lack of foreign investment in Iran’s gas industry, especially in the South Pars gas field, has caused Iran to fall far behind in competition with Qatar. Additionally, the outdated technology and equipment for extraction in South Pars, resulting from the lack of investment, have led to a decrease in extraction compared to the field’s nominal capacity.
Reports indicate that Qataris have attracted foreign investment in the Gombe North gas field. Interestingly, the majority of investment in this joint gas field has been made by the Chinese. These are the same Chinese who had promised to invest in South Pars, but not only did they fail to fulfill their promise, they also abandoned Iran and turned to the energy market in Iran’s rival country.
Once again, China has outpaced Iran.
According to reports published in foreign media, the Chinese invested over $60 billion in the Gombe North gas field in 2020. However, this is not the end of the story, as Beijing has also invested a total of $27 billion in this joint gas field during the past year. Overall, it is estimated that the Chinese have invested over $100 billion in the Gombe North gas field.
However, the work did not end here, and the giants of the energy market also entered the Gonbad-e Kavous gas field, including major investors such as the Dutch-British company Shell, the French company Total, the American company Phillips, and the French company Technip.
The result of these investments in Qatar was that Doha easily took Russia’s place in the European energy market. On the other hand, the Chinese created the conditions for Qatar to become the largest producer and exporter of LNG in the world. This is despite the fact that the Chinese had promised a $20 billion investment to the Rouhani government in 2018 to upgrade the South Pars gas field in terms of technology and extraction equipment.
However, with the rise of the Raisi government and the start of the Ukraine war, the tide turned for us, and the Chinese easily turned their backs on Iran and invested their capital in the Qatari gas market. This wrong approach in policy-making and diplomacy has not only deprived Iran of a historic opportunity to export gas to Europe, but now we are waiting for a serious mega-crisis.
What is the story of this mega-crisis?
According to a report published by the Research Center of the Parliament, Iran will face a gas shortage of more than twice the current amount in the year 1420. In other words, if Iran fails to attract foreign investment today, the natural gas supply in the country will reach 890 million cubic meters. Therefore, it is estimated that in the best case scenario, Iran’s gas deficit in 1420 will exceed 510 million cubic meters, which is twice the current gas deficit in the domestic market.
These statistics and figures have no significant meaning, except that Iran, as the largest holder of gas resources in the world, is turning into a gas importer in the world. As it has been repeatedly mentioned, Iran has the largest gas resources in the world, but due to delays in reviving the JCPOA and the inability to attract foreign investment, it will easily become a gas importer.
The more interesting and ironic point is that the most cost-effective source from which Iran can buy gas is Qatar. This is the same country that has currently taken the lead from Iran in the gas market, and in less than 20 years, it will have a major leverage against its northern neighbor, which can provide special privileges to Doha.
The operation of Phase 11 of South Pars has been postponed until 1402.
Iran accuses foreigners of being responsible for attacks on the world’s largest gas field.
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