The Stability Front Compromises with Qalibaf’s Leadership
The internal conflict among conservatives over the leadership of the coalition council is such that they are not willing to give up on Qalibaf’s leadership. They know that if they concede on Qalibaf’s leadership, they will destroy his potential to participate in the 2025 presidential elections and he would have to retreat for a few years to restore his political standing and regain his lost stature.
According to Iran Gate News Agency, the situation in the conservative camp resembles a battlefield that has returned from a bloody war, yet no one has fought an external war. This situation results from an internal power struggle, which is evident these days on social media with revelations against each other.
An Election Without a Rival
In several election cycles, conservatives have been at ease due to the lack of a strong opponent. In other words, they had no rival to compete against. Thus, their competitions have been within their own ranks. In the twelfth parliamentary elections, as in the previous parliament elections, this situation prevails, and thanks to extensive disqualifications on the opposing side, the conservatives are left with 290 seats in the Islamic Consultative Assembly and a battle for the largest share of those seats among themselves.
The Battle Over Tehran’s Leadership
One of the power struggles underway in this camp revolves around the leadership of the most important electoral district, Tehran. This battle intensifies as conservatives strive to present a unified list but encounter an obstacle named Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf. The obstacle is not his presence but the insistence of the coalition council on Qalibaf’s leadership.
In Tehran, which holds significant importance, many conservative groups are active or have been formed. They are striving to gain the largest share of the 30-member Tehran list. The Coalition Council, the Stability Front, Sharyan, and smaller groups forming the Umana organization, and the Unity Council are the four main conservative currents in Tehran.
Among them, the Coalition Council has become the largest tent in the conservative camp and holds considerable influence. The Stability Front seems to push away unity with the Coalition Council with one hand while pulling it closer with the other. They, having a sharp angle with Qalibaf, are making significant efforts to pull Qalibaf down from Tehran’s leadership and consequently from the presidency of the parliament.
Sharyan and smaller groups from Sharyan forming the Umana organization also aim to increase their political weight and present a separate list. They are mostly staunch opponents of Qalibaf. The Unity Council does not seem inclined to move towards a coalition, given the direction the Coalition Council is taking.
Qalibaf: An Obstacle to Conservative Unity
However, among the groups inclined to ally with the elder brother of conservatives, Qalibaf’s leadership is seen as an obstacle to this coalition, and they oppose it. Meanwhile, currents like the Musaf group affiliated with Ali Akbar Raefipour have also drawn their swords against Qalibaf, attacking him on social media. They might be engaged in a proxy war against Qalibaf on behalf of the allies of the Stability Front and Sharyanis, namely the government.
Nonetheless, Haddad Adel, the head of the Coalition Council of the Forces of the Revolution, has made emphatic remarks about Qalibaf’s leadership in Tehran. Qalibaf, who also led the Tehran list in the previous elections and has been the parliament’s president for four years, stepping down from Tehran’s leadership would be considered a severe political defeat. In social networks, part of the conservative base, not aligned with the likes of Raefipour, the Stability Front, and Sharyan, but supportive of the Coalition Council, declare they will vote for the council’s list except for Qalibaf. If such a plan becomes widespread, Qalibaf’s position might become highly unstable.
In the statements of Mostafa Mirsalim, Tehran’s representative in the parliament, signs of such an approach can be seen. Giving a list is an imposition on the people, and with the current law, there is no alternative but to accept its weaknesses and flaws. If elections were held with single-representative districts, the issue of a list leader, which disrupts people’s judgment, would be nullified.
These remarks become more meaningful when reviewing Mirsalim’s previous confrontations with Qalibaf. Early in the parliament’s work, he claimed that tens of billions in bribes were paid to the head of a commission to cancel an investigation into the municipality. Although he didn’t name Qalibaf, it was evidently targeted at him. Over the past four years, he hasn’t had few disputes with Qalibaf.
Qalibaf’s situation has become so unstable that the Strong Iran People’s Front and the Islamic Society of Managers also raise doubts about Qalibaf’s leadership, and in these two unknown organizations, Qalibaf’s leadership has not yet been finalized.
Mohammad Nazemi Ardakani, the secretary-general of these two conservative political organizations, stated in an interview that there are members in the central council who have differing opinions on Mr. Qalibaf’s management of the parliament. However, if the Coalition Council concludes that he should be the leader, we will decide on this matter in our central council.
He also provided an analysis of the current currents in the elections. The Sharyan Front has a serious stance against Mr. Qalibaf’s leadership, but if the Stability Front and the Unity Council enter into a coalition and their views are met, and their leader is Mr. Qalibaf, we will also reach this conclusion to accept this leader.
He is not entirely wrong. The 2019 elections for the eleventh parliament showed that at the last minute, the Stability Front and the Coalition Council reached an agreement, and on one hand, Qalibaf remained at the top of the Tehran list, and on the other, several Stability candidates who wouldn’t have won if they were on a separate list entered the parliament through this means.
At that time, Haddad Adel mediated between Mahsuli and Qalibaf and managed to seal the deal. However, this time, Haddad Adel has directly intervened and, after inviting the Stability Front to peace and harmony and not receiving a suitable signal from them, he has reprimanded them and in a way, ostracized them.
The Stability Front Concedes to Qalibaf’s Leadership
On the other hand, unconfirmed reports suggest that the Coalition Council has agreed with the Stability Front for the presence of 7 members of this radical organization in the council’s list. However, this has not been confirmed yet. Additionally, it is heard that Haddad and Qalibaf have each conditioned the agreement with the Stability Front that a current representative from the Stability Front, who recently had legal disputes with Qalibaf, and a former radical representative who has long been active against Qalibaf, should not be included in the joint list, and apparently, the Stability organization has accepted.
The Stability Front, being solely focused on their goal and willing to use any means to achieve it, might officially declare an alliance with the council, even with Qalibaf’s leadership. This is while the Umana current appears to be the most stubborn group against Qalibaf.
Nevertheless, the Coalition Council is by no means willing to concede on Qalibaf’s leadership. They know that if they give up on Qalibaf’s leadership, they will destroy his potential to participate in the 2025 presidential elections and he would have to retreat for a few years to restore his political standing and regain his lost stature.
The leadership situation is so tense that it seems Mohammad Reza Bahonar has preferred to go to his province, Kerman, and distance himself from this conflict. However, in Tehran, a fierce competition between Qalibaf and Morteza Agha Tehrani for leadership in the event of a joint list of the Coalition Council and the Stability Front is ongoing.
Who Will Win the Conservative vs. Conservative Competition?
This spectrum, likely having access to many surveys, can adjust their actions according to the surveys until the last day. It is essential to note that in politics, minutes and behind-the-scenes deals can turn the entire scene and create significant changes at the last moments.
In any case, the twelfth parliamentary elections are so important for conservatives that they have drawn swords against each other and want to send the rival into the abyss by any means to seize the main road for themselves. This competition has been made possible for them due to the absence of strong and established opponents from the reformist spectrum, allowing them to have a power struggle among themselves—a battle to win in the competition of conservatives against conservatives.