Europe as Usual
Von der Leyen Wants to Repeat
Europe as Usual: The current President of the European Commission is running for leadership again, focusing on issues such as defense and competition, but her re-election for a second term doesn’t seem guaranteed.
Ursula von der Leyen has finally announced her intention to run for a second term to take the helm of the European Commission. The current president, who is 65 years old, made her re-election bid public at a Christian Democratic Party meeting in Berlin for the European elections scheduled for June 6-9. She must now be officially nominated as the lead candidate at the European People’s Party (EPP) electoral congress in Bucharest, Romania, on March 6 and 7.
Although her appointment as the lead candidate of the European People’s Party seems obvious, her re-election as President of the European Commission cannot be confirmed with certainty. Apart from any major surprises, Von der Leyen must garner the support of a qualified majority of European leaders, with the exception of Hungary’s Viktor Orban, it’s likely that few of the other 27 will oppose her.
Some have already supported her for a second term, and almost everyone likes or respects her, but in the European Parliament, things could be more complicated. Her re-election depends on the percentage of votes the European People’s Party secures in the elections. Nevertheless, she remains the favored option for the presidency of the European Commission for another five years.
The Password is Defense
With two years since the war in Ukraine and the shadow of Donald Trump over the White House, if Europe has to focus on one issue, it is joint defense. It is no coincidence that the Commission President openly stated on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference, held last weekend, that if re-elected, she would establish a European Union defense commission. Yes, if I am the next Commission President, I will establish a defense commissioner. I think it makes sense.
And she added that where and how it would be created and funded remains an open question, but she believes it is very important for the Central and Eastern European countries to have good plans and projects, and this is a good start.
However, defense does not fall under the executive competencies of Brussels, which is why the Commission will focus on industrial capabilities in this sector. Von der Leyen made this clear in an interview with the Financial Times last week, calling for greater financial support for European arms manufacturers through subsidies and contracts that ensure long-term purchase of products. This strategy, based on the model created for producing COVID-19 vaccines during the pandemic, is designed to increase production efficiency and stabilize the continent’s defense sector.
Back to Competition
In the next term of Parliament, support for European production will not only be about defense but should extend to all sectors from electric vehicles to telecommunications. The numbers clearly show that the Union’s growth is struggling, not just in comparison to the United States.
The per capita GDP of the United States is more than double that of the 27 EU countries, and this gap is widening. Europe has lagged in terms of new technologies and semiconductor production capacities, and has not made much progress. Meanwhile, structural problems that undermine the effectiveness of the single market have been exacerbated by years of crisis and remain unresolved.
First the pandemic, then Russia’s war against Ukraine raised energy prices and costs, and demographic pressures and educational challenges have led to a shortage of skilled labor. Additionally, the complexity of procedures and bureaucracy, according to small and medium-sized businesses, has reduced growth potential. This is why Von der Leyen asked Mario Draghi, former Prime Minister of Europe and former President of the European Central Bank, to write a report on the competitiveness of the European Union and offer recommendations for improving it and strengthening the single market.
Red Thread with Washington
Throughout the ups and downs, the first woman at the head of the Commission has managed to steer the Union through a global pandemic and the first major conflict in decades on European soil. At her insistence, last December, the 27 countries decided to start membership negotiations with Ukraine in the European Union with Kyiv.
Von der Leyen’s iron-fist leadership has sometimes put her at odds with EU capitals, especially when making decisions on a range of sensitive issues from support for Israel to policy towards China without consulting member states, which has angered diplomats and even some of her own high-ranking officials.
In 2019, she astonishingly came to power with the support of a majority that adopted the name Ursula, bringing together all pro-European parties in the EU: the Conservative European People’s Party, the Socialists, and the Renew Liberal Group. If five years ago a small majority was enough to win, with 383 votes slightly above the minimum of 374, it is uncertain that today, with the rise of the far right in Europe, she could repeat that victory.
The lurking danger is the risk of being uncontrollable, but on the other hand, due to her staunch Atlanticism, there is the prospect of a joint effort between Western Europe and North American countries, especially the United States, in economy, politics, and military defense. With the declared goal of keeping the participating countries safe in this joint effort and protecting values, it would not be surprising
if her candidacy is supported from across the Atlantic. The New York Times reports that the answer to the famous question attributed to Henry Kissinger, asking who to call if he wanted to reach Europe, has been easier than ever in the past four years: You call Ursula von der Leyen.
On a personal note, the Commission President emphasized her experience and passion for the European Union, which she now considers her home. She bases this new candidacy on what was achieved during her mandate when the EU had to deal with the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, the energy crisis, and the revival of conflicts in the Middle East. In the discussion on security and defense, it seems that Von der Leyen is looking to garner support from European political parties by launching a business plan for Europe’s defense industries.
However, it is believed that this message is distant from European public opinion, which is focused on building Europe, as it organizes around issues more limited to their emotions and needs during a period of instability and low growth. Defense is a topic that can be divisive and certainly does not captivate the youngest voters.