Zelensky sank the Russian Navy commander
Ukraine in the latest blow
Zelensky sank the Russian Navy commander; Moscow dismisses the navy commander, and Biden tries to bypass Congress. The United States will send $300 million in arms to Ukraine. The U.S. Congress continues to hold aid to Ukraine hostage, but Ukraine can no longer wait, and the U.S. government is taking action.
Jake Sullivan, the National Security Advisor, told reporters, ‘Today, on behalf of President Biden, I am announcing an emergency security assistance package and $300 million in weapons and equipment to meet some of Ukraine’s immediate needs.’ The Pentagon made it clear that this move is extraordinary and short-term, even if it is not sufficient to cover the needs of the Ukrainian armed forces.
The new supplies, funded by savings from U.S. military weapons contracts, include new Stinger missiles, ammunition for missile systems, artillery shells, anti-tank rockets, and small-caliber ammunition. Aid that can only last for a few weeks.
On Tuesday, March 12, to mark the 25th anniversary of Poland’s membership in NATO, President Joe Biden met with his Polish counterpart Andrzej Duda and Prime Minister Donald Tusk at the White House. Biden once again emphasized the need to continue supporting Ukraine in the war against Russia. Tusk then warned Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson that the fate of thousands depends on the blocked $60 billion aid.
Meanwhile, the French Parliament in Paris approved new military aid to Ukraine, despite the abstention of Marine Le Pen’s National Rally coalition. Yesterday, the Danish government also announced that it would donate 23 billion kroner, equivalent to $337 million, for the purchase of weapons and ammunition to Kyiv.
Ammunition in the midst of conflict
The issue of weapons production and supply has become a conflict and problem within the existing conflict, which could determine the outcome of the war, currently placing Russia in a better position. In fact, Moscow seems to be on track to produce almost three times more artillery ammunition than the combined total of the United States and Europe, a key advantage given the offensive the Kremlin plans to launch by the end of the year.
According to a CNN report citing a senior European intelligence official, Moscow generally produces about 250,000 artillery shells per month, approximately 3 million per year, while the current capacity of the U.S. and Europe for Ukraine is around 12 million per year. The U.S. military has set its goal to produce 100,000 artillery shells per month by the end of 2025, less than half of Russia’s monthly production, but if funding for Kyiv is blocked in Congress, even this increase may be out of reach.
This NATO official claims the Russian war machine operates 24/7 with factories running 12-hour rotating shifts. Additionally, today around 35 million Russians work in the defense industry, compared to 25 million before the war. Furthermore, Moscow imports ammunition, having received at least 300,000 artillery shells from Iran and 6,700 ammunition boxes from North Korea last year.
Critical time
The ammunition shortage is perhaps occurring at the most critical time for Ukraine since the start of the conflict. Despite a stalemate that has persisted on the battlefield for months, Moscow is widely recognized as having shown the greatest initiative in recent months.
In fact, the counteroffensive launched by Kyiv last summer did not achieve its goals. U.S. aid has been blocked by Republicans in Congress, and Russia has recently captured the city of Avdiivka.
Moreover, as if the ammunition shortage wasn’t enough, Ukraine is struggling with a growing shortage of men to deploy to the front lines. When the Kremlin launched its full-scale invasion in 2022, many Ukrainians volunteered to defend their country, but that reserve has run out, and now many men who are of eligible age are unwilling to be sent to the front.
The ammunition shortage, along with mandatory rotations and lack of leave, are among the reasons for the decline in conscripts. In the first public announcement about war casualties, President Volodymyr Zelensky announced last month that 31,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed so far, but the actual number is believed to be much higher.
The proposal to lower the conscription age to 25 has sparked a strong reaction from those concerned that sending the youngest individuals to the front lines could be akin to suicide for the country. However, what has demotivated many is primarily the atmosphere of distrust and fear that the West might withdraw its support for the resistance.
Not all is lost
Despite these numbers, according to Western information, Russia is expected to gain significant advantages on the battlefield in the short term, and if Western aid resumes, not all will be lost. Today, news emerged that Russian President Vladimir Putin dismissed the Russian Navy commander after suffering a series of humiliating losses in the Black Sea. Admiral Nikolai Yevmenov, who had led the Navy since 2019, was replaced by Alexander Moiseyev, commander of the Northern Fleet.
U.S. officials believe that while Kyiv’s counteroffensive in the eastern and southern parts of the country has largely failed, its attacks on the Crimean Peninsula and the Black Sea Fleet have exceeded expectations and been very effective. These victories were surprising because Ukraine does not have a traditional navy or war fleet. Instead, Kyiv used drones and naval missiles to attack Russian warships and has sunk 15 Russian ships in the past six months.
The naval successes led to breaking the blockade imposed by Moscow on Ukrainian ports and practically reopened the Black Sea to the West, allowing Kyiv’s ships to once again transport wheat and grains from the port of Odessa. Reports indicate that last month’s exports included 8 million tons of various products, including 5 million tons of agricultural products, the highest amount since the Russian invasion began.
There has been much talk about the failure of Ukraine’s counteroffensives, but there is a front where Kyiv has demonstrated its ability to creatively exploit available tools to strike Russia in one of its most sensitive areas: the Black Sea.
Although the lack of a major ground advance has overshadowed these successes, their importance remains undeniable. In fact, the Russian fleet can no longer operate freely in the western Black Sea because Ukraine has managed to establish a maritime corridor at this point for exporting its grains to global markets.
This not only helped alleviate Kyiv’s strained financial situation but was also a slap in the face to Moscow, which thought it could bring Ukraine to its knees by withdrawing from the grain agreement, and ultimately, the change at the head of the Russian Navy can be seen as evidence of how costly this humiliation has been for Moscow.