The gaps in the parliament are narrowing
The three serious factions of the twelfth parliament are pursuing their initial sessions and will finalize their composition next week before the opening ceremony.
This report focuses on the most important factions that have a definite presence in the twelfth parliament and also looks at the possibility of the split of the principlists in the twelfth parliament. It is necessary to mention that the factions examined in this report either have a high number of representatives or can be influential in the internal dynamics of the parliament.
The Islamic Revolution Faction
Among the main factions whose formation in the twelfth parliament is definite and likely to have a high number of members is the Islamic Revolution Faction. This faction, whose formation dates back to the eighth term of the parliament, has been present in various terms since then.
In this twelfth term as well, this faction has been active, with Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf serving as its head.
It is possible that the name of this faction in the twelfth parliament may change. Abolfazl Abutorabi stated in an interview with IRNA on April 25th that the elected members of the twelfth parliament decided in their meetings to form a political faction in the twelfth parliament. In fact, the foundation for such a faction has been laid in these meetings. Until the final name for this faction is chosen and the rest of the representatives are determined in the second round of elections, the name of this faction is expected to be the Islamic Revolution Faction.
Official programs to organize this faction have officially begun since the beginning of April of this year and are progressing.
In early April, the first meeting was held to make decisions regarding this faction, and these individuals were selected as members of the faction’s executive committee: Nasrollah Pejmanfar, Reza Taqipour, Ali Khodarian, Hamid Rasaee, Mohsen Zangeneh, Malek Sharayati, Jalil Mirmohammadi, Mohammad Taghi Naqdi Ali, and Mojtaba Yousefi.
In the coming week, this faction will have another important session. Malek Shariati had told reporters on Ordibehesht 25th about the upcoming session. The first session of the Islamic Revolution Faction of the Twelfth Parliament will be held on Tuesday, Ordibehesht 31st, to approve the charter and regulations and form the presiding board of this faction.
So far, the temporary executive board of the Islamic Revolution Faction has held four sessions. In the upcoming week, 200 selected members have also been invited to the general assembly meeting of the Islamic Revolution Faction.
Unity with everyone except two groups is one of the important points surrounding this faction, at least in the early stages of its work. It seems that the main organizers of the faction are trying to create maximum unity among the principlists in the internal space of the parliament.
This matter is interpretable from the composition of the executive board and the remarks made by Seyyed Mahmoud Nabavian.
He had stated on Ordibehesht 24th in an interview with Fars News Agency that it is through unity that we can solve the people’s problems. I emphasize that obeying the orders of the Supreme Leader is a religious obligation. The faction has been formed for this purpose.
We have actually invited almost all friends of the Islamic Revolution to the first session of forming the faction. The goals were explained, and about 40 invitees were expected to be the founders of this faction for the twelfth parliament. Friends from various revolutionary groups, including the Amna Coalition, had attended.
For example, Mr. Motaghi and Haj Aghayi were among the invitees. It is natural to have differences in some cases and some solutions. These differences should be resolved within the faction. We will also ask those who were not invited to attend.
Alongside the efforts made for unity, as important members of the faction have mentioned, there are two important red lines for joining the faction. The first is reformists and figures close to them. This point has been explicitly stated by a member of the faction’s executive committee.
In an interview with Fars News Agency, Malek Shariati, on 18th of Farvardin, had stated that the red line for the selected representatives of the revolutionary movement with reformists in the twelfth parliament should not be crossed. If the elected representatives of the twelfth parliament are seeking change, they must pay attention to the essential issues of the country and solving economic problems under the shadow of unity, especially within the majority of the parliament.
The revolutionary representatives of the twelfth parliament must adhere to the requirements of unity and not allow the opponents of the revolutionary movement to empower the reformists and weaken the revolutionary movement in practice. This can be achieved by forming a unified Islamic Revolution faction that officially recognizes various opinions within it.
However, in addition to the reformists, it seems that the important decision of this faction is to distance itself from emerging movements that have been born within the principles of the conservatives.
Although the name of the ‘Iran’s Morning Front’ and its secretary-general, Ali Akbar Ra’fipour, have not been explicitly mentioned as a red line, Ali Khazarian, on 21st of Ordibehesht, in interviews with ISNA, had given some codes that may be interpreted as pointing towards Ra’fipour.
Khademiyan had said that with coherence among the revolutionary forces, some lobbyists will not be allowed to create multiple factions in the twelfth parliament. This is the same thing that happened in the tenth parliament and led the parliament towards having three factions.
The formation of three factions in the twelfth parliament means that opportunists and lobbyists will play in the middle of the field and move back and forth every day, ultimately playing with the views of the revolutionary movement inside the parliament for their own interests, resulting in harm to the track record of the revolutionary forces in the Islamic Consultative Assembly.
We should not allow anyone outside the parliament to plan for the majority faction. All planning and designs for creating the majority faction inside the parliament should be done by the elected representatives of the people themselves, resulting in the creation of the majority faction with the presence of all perspectives and currents within the revolutionary movement.
The story of the parliamentary presidency, considering that this faction will likely have the largest number of members in the twelfth parliament, internal developments within the faction for determining the new head of the parliament seem crucial. So far, two opinions have been expressed about the main options of the faction for the presidency of the parliament. Initially, Abolfazl Abutorabi had stated in his interview on May 25th with IRNA news agency that Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf is currently holding individual and group meetings with the elected members of the twelfth parliament regarding the future presidency of the parliament.
Furthermore, Mojtaba Zolnouri, Ali Nikzad, and Manouchehr Mottaki have also arranged individual and group meetings with the elected members of the twelfth parliament to introduce themselves as candidates for the presidency of the parliament and present their plans.
However, the second opinion expressed about the faction’s situation regarding the future presidency of the parliament seems more important than what Abutorabi had mentioned.
Seyyed Mahmoud Nabavian had stated in a part of his interview with Fars News Agency, which took place on 24 Ordibehesht, that the presidency of Mr. Qalibaf is dependent on Mr. Zonuri. It is possible that I vote for Mr. A and you vote for Mr. B, there is no problem. The philosophy of forming a faction was to resolve these differences within the faction, meaning friends come here and argue why Mr. A yes and Mr. B no.
Alongside these opinions, the recent two waves that have emerged among the current ideologies within the faction could indicate that even holding intra-factional elections to introduce the final factional candidate for the presidency of the parliament may have significant implications and may even lead to the creation of another surprise in the conservative movement. Either a single candidate is not introduced by this faction for the presidency of the parliament, and we witness the presence of two candidates from this faction competing for the chairmanship, in which case their votes will be split, or even figures like Qalibaf may face difficulties in winning intra-factional votes.
In a recent issue of the 9D weekly magazine, which Hamid Rezaei, a member of the executive committee of the Islamic Revolutionary Faction and a member of the Central Council of the Artery, is the editor-in-chief, in its recent issue published on May 14, it titled itself as ‘Qalibaf’s change is definite; Qalibaf’s presidency in the parliament came to an end,’ and wrote that with the announcement of the results of the second round of elections and the majority support for the anti-corruption reformist movement in the parliament, Qalibaf’s change is definite.
And of course, Hamid Rezaei explained his position in his Telegram channel to show that their determination and the like-minded individuals’ seriousness in not voting for Qalibaf.
In a part of Hamid Rezaei’s note, it was mentioned that Ghalibaf, as the head of the stabilization current, despite having served as a military commander, commander of the police force for 12 years, mayor of Tehran for four years, representative of Tehran for four years, and speaker of the parliament for four years, and having received over 1.2 million votes from the people of Tehran four years ago, and some of his advisors were saying that he would get 29 dry sticks in Tehran, he faced a significant decrease in participation with two-thirds reduction in votes, his basket reduced to 400,000 votes, and he became the fourth in Tehran. All of this tells a story of a reality – people want change and transformation.
It is natural that the symbol of this change and transformation should be reflected in the window and management of the parliament. People expect their meaningful protest to be heard. The future parliament must echo the voices of justice and the fight against corruption.
But the next day, Sobh-e No newspaper, considered a media close to Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, somewhat responded to the headline of 9 Dey and in its own headline on Ordibehesht 26, using a report published by Tasnim, wrote ‘Ghalibaf’s First Chance for Speakership of the Parliament’.
According to the Tasnim report, it was written that most representatives are in favor of Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf’s presidency, and one of these elected officials told a Tasnim reporter that 120 representatives who have definitively declared their presence in the majority faction are in favor of Mr. Ghalibaf’s presidency.
He also emphasized that among the remaining elected officials, about 115 individuals, including 65 independents and 50 reformists, are also inclined towards Mr. Ghalibaf as a prominent candidate for the presidency of the faction. Regarding the presidency of the faction, serious discussions have not taken place so far, and only one member of the faction briefly expressed an opinion on this matter. Hossein Ali Haji Deligani had stated in an interview with the Berna News Agency on May 15 that from the beginning, the discussion was about not having the Speaker of the Parliament also be the head of the faction. In fact, the head of the faction should be an independent figure separate from the official position of the presiding board. The point being made is that Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf must choose between the presidency of the parliament and the presidency of the faction and cannot hold both seats, as in the past four years.
Although no official statement has been made about the presidency option in the faction, on April 25, Khabar Online published a short report with the headline ‘Nobakht for the leadership of the Revolutionary Faction in the future’ which was circulated on conservative websites. It mentioned that Nobakht intends to replace Qalibaf and become the head of the faction if in the sessions held for the election of the executive board members, Nobakht was the opening speaker.
The faction of ‘Morning of Iran’ – either confrontation or transparency.
Among the two new factions expected to be formed in the twelfth parliament, we will likely witness the birth of another conservative faction centered outside the parliament, led by Aliakbar Raefipour, the Secretary-General of the ‘Morning of Iran’ front.
Raefipour had confirmed the formation of a faction after the first round of elections. In his press conference held on February 11th of last year, he stated that negotiations with the elected officials continue, but I do not deny the formation of this faction. Our priority is the formation of the transparency faction.
We are following the formation of our own faction, whether this faction exists or not, there are those who are loyal to these currents, so the formation of an independent faction is also being pursued.
The issue of forming this faction can be taken seriously from a point where in recent days, with the publication of financial documents of the institution by a figure close to the Speaker of the Parliament, tensions and conflicts between Ali Akbar Raefipour and his supporters with the principlists close to Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf have reached their peak. It may not be surprising that representatives who have entered the parliament through the Iran’s Islamic Revolution Front list do not become members of the Islamic Revolution faction and instead form a separate faction. In this context, the wide differences between the Speaker and the Parliament have led Raefipour and his supporters to lean towards the rival option of Ghalibaf in the election of a new Speaker of the Parliament.
The faction of independents or moderates.
Alongside the two principled factions in the Twelfth Parliament, the creation of another faction has been confirmed, which revolves around representatives who are either reformists or considered close to reforms, or have a more moderate approach compared to other principled factions.
They are supposed to form an independent faction, although the exact name of this faction has not been determined yet. They started planning for the formation of this faction since the beginning of Ordibehesht, but the final session formation was postponed until after the second round. However, with the composition of representatives becoming clear, they will likely hold their session in the coming days and before the inauguration ceremony with the presence of all members.
In any case, individuals who received votes in the first round have had sessions.
Masoud Pezeshkian had mentioned in his interview with Ensaaf News on April 28 that currently we have only held sessions with representatives who received votes, discussing issues related to the northwest and addressing the demands of the region and surrounding provinces.
If we collectively advocate based on the framework of laws and justice, we can be more impactful than individually.
After that, Gholamreza Nouri Ghazaleh, who chaired this faction in the eleventh parliament, had announced the formation of the founding board of this faction from the first session and the composition of the board. According to his statement, these individuals make up the founding board of the faction: Masoud Pezeshkian, Gholamreza Nouri Ghazaleh, Mehrdad Lahouti, Faridoun Hemmati, Ahmad Bakhshayesh, Gholamreza Tajgardoon, Fathollah Tousli, Hosseinzadeh, Mohammad Baqeri Bonab, Aladdin Boroujerdi, Nasirpour, Maryam Abdollahi Ghaderti, Seyed Farid Mousavi, and Mostafa Pour-Dehghan.
Regarding the number of independent individuals who have entered the twelfth parliament, significant figures have been announced. Before the second round of elections, Gholamreza Nouri Ghazaleh, on April 24th, in an interview with the Baran News Agency, stated that in the twelfth parliament, the number of friends who came with an independent or reformist policy is more than twice that of the eleventh parliament, and negotiations may have been conducted with over 80 people. The purpose of this is to have a cohesive and composed faction to have a greater impact on the issues of the twelfth parliament.
Members of the faction who reach the parliament in the second round will be over 90, which is significant.
At the same time, Masoud Pezeshkian told Ensafnews on April 28th that based on the raw information we received and heard from our friends, we realized that there are around 60 to 80 people who can be considered more moderate than others and the next parliament will be different from the current one. But after the second round of elections, this number increased. Gholamreza Norouzi Yazdi had said on May 13th in an interview with Jamaran that in the second stage of the twelfth parliament elections, 13 candidates with independent policies made it to the twelfth parliament.
The number of faction members is approaching 100 with the establishment of independent representatives, and hopes have increased for the formation of a parliament that can diligently pursue all public demands.
The leadership and the presiding board of the parliament have not yet announced specific names regarding the plans of this faction for electing a new president or presiding board. However, it is clear that considering the significant number of members in this faction, they can have a high level of influence. On the 11th of Ordibehesht, in an interview with Donya-ye-Eghtesad, Nouri Rezaljeh talked about this issue, saying it is not ruled out that we might have a nomination for the presidency of the parliament from our group, and this possibility exists both for the presidency and other positions.
For this reason, I do not deny this matter, but even if we have a nomination for the presidency of the parliament, it must definitely involve interaction with other factions in the parliament.
Masoud Pezeshkian also told Ensafnews on the 20th of Ordibehesht that I currently do not have a decision to run for the presidency or vice-presidency of the twelfth parliament, but the final decision in this regard depends on the Moderates Fraction, and we will act accordingly.
In this regard, we will try to make any consensus that the Moderates Fraction reaches happen.
Moderates Fraction Step Two
One of the factions that was established in the eleventh parliament is somewhat based on youthfulness, and these days they are following their programs for the second four-year term. They held a session for the twelfth parliament on the 24th of Ordibehesht. The main speakers of the session were prominent political and principled figures such as Mohsen Rezaei and Hadi Tahan Nazif.
Although it is said that the basis of this faction is on the presence of young members, the definition of youth according to the faction’s designers is based on considering individuals young until they reach the age of 50. Mohsen Zanganeh, who chaired this faction in the eleventh parliament, had mentioned before the formation of the first session of this faction that about 85 to 90 elected representatives of the twelfth parliament in the age range of 40 to 49 will participate in this gathering. There is no specific political or list-based boundary in this regard, and we have invited everyone to attend this session.
But the important point about this faction is that they claim that the formation of this faction is separate from political issues and focuses on non-political programs. As Mohsen Zangeneh had mentioned in the sessions on April 24, we, as young representatives in the parliament, were not involved in lobbying and some selfishness. The goal of forming the faction is to lead substantive and regulatory activities alongside political and specialized factions in the future.
In matters such as capital gains tax, the law on supporting women and families, budget structure reform, facilitating business licenses issuance, and other enacted laws, the footprint of the youth can be seen, and one should seek change within these groups.
Solving equations with independents.
Based on what was mentioned about the important factions of the twelfth parliament, the clear point is that the largest population is present in the Islamic Revolution faction. However, the situation will become interesting when the election of a new parliament speaker becomes a serious point of contention among the principlists.
Some are inclined to continue with Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf as the head of the legislative branch, but others are strongly opposed to this. It is at this time that the role of the independent faction may become interesting.
If the claim made by prominent figures of this faction is true and between eighty to a hundred representatives who are members of this faction cast a unified vote in the election of the presiding board, then at that time the independent representatives in the parliament may have an impact in the dispute between the principlists and the independents, and perhaps among them the independents or, as some call them, the centrists may gain points in the composition of the presiding board.