A Tumultuous Nuclear June
The tumultuous nuclear June is marked by the upcoming quarterly meeting of the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency, which is set to begin next Monday, June 3rd, and continue until June 7th.
As usual, we witnessed the release of a new report from the International Atomic Energy Agency. Given its tone and content, many observers believe the upcoming quarterly meeting of the Board of Governors will have a completely different atmosphere, as there is a possibility of adopting anti-Iranian policies, potentially leading to a resolution.
Especially since there have been reports of efforts by the European Troika members of the JCPOA—Germany, France, and the UK—to issue such a resolution.
According to Shargh, it has been 18 months since the last time the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency, with its 35 members, passed a resolution against Iran. That resolution claimed that Iran must immediately cooperate with the Agency’s investigations regarding discovered uranium particles.
However, some media outlets, quoting nuclear diplomats, report that there are disagreements between Berlin, Paris, and London with Washington, focusing on the issuance of a resolution against Tehran.
Overall, whether we consider this disagreement as a division of roles in the form of good cop, bad cop, it has highlighted the notion that Tehran will face a completely different situation in the June meeting of the Board of Governors. Meanwhile, Rafael Grossi’s visit to Tehran in May likely did not alleviate the sensitivities surrounding Iran’s nuclear dossier and the disputes between Tehran and the Agency.
What does the new Agency report say?
The new report from the International Atomic Energy Agency, released Monday night, claims that Iran has enriched some of its uranium reserves to more than 30 times the limit set in the 2015 agreement. The report adds that Iran now has 1,421 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60%, an increase of 206 kilograms since the last report in February.
This report claims that estimates show Iran’s enriched uranium reserves have increased by 6,758 kilograms since the previous report, reaching 62,013 kilograms. Rafael Grossi, the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, expressed regret in the report about Iran’s decision not to change its stance on revoking the permits of several experienced inspectors from the Agency.
Reuters, which claims to have seen two reports from the International Atomic Energy Agency, reported that one of these reports was sent to the member countries of the Board of Governors. Part of this report again refers to the disputes between Tehran and the Agency, stating that no progress has been made in implementing the joint statement from March 4, 2023.
The Atomic Energy Agency states in its report that the Director General of the Agency once again requested the Iranian government and expressed his willingness to continue high-level dialogues and subsequent technical exchanges, which began on May 6-7, 2024.
Grossi also expressed regret in this report about what is referred to as unresolved safeguard issues. Reuters claimed that another report indicates that Iran’s enriched uranium reserves with 60% purity, close to 90% weapons grade, increased by 206 kilograms over three months, reaching 1,421 kilograms by May 11, with Iran subsequently diluting 59 kilograms.
The Associated Press, citing Rafael Grossi’s report, claimed that no progress has been made regarding the renewal of permits for some of the Agency’s inspectors in Iran. However, it is expected that this issue will be resolved within the framework of ongoing negotiations between the Agency and Iran as part of the so-called March 4 statement.
The Director General of the Agency reminded that talks with Iran were interrupted following the helicopter accident involving the Iranian President, but Iran proposed in a letter dated May 21 to continue negotiations in Tehran at a mutually agreed-upon date.
Grossi again claims that despite his trip to Tehran, the remaining safeguard issues have not been resolved because Iran has neither provided the Agency with credible technical explanations regarding the presence of uranium particles of human origin in Varamin and Torquzabad nor informed the Agency about their current locations.
In contrast, the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran announced that it has declared all necessary nuclear materials, activities, and locations based on its safeguard agreement.
In evaluating the text and content of the Board of Governors’ quarterly report, Abolqasem Taheri, in an interview with Shargh, believes that contrary to expectations from Rafael Grossi’s trip to Tehran, now, as Iran focuses on the presidential election on July 8, following the death of Seyed Ebrahim Raisi, Tehran’s nuclear challenge in the Board of Governors’ quarterly meeting may change the situation.
Because, according to this foreign policy analyst, the content of the International Atomic Energy Agency’s quarterly report and Rafael Grossi’s report has increasingly prepared the ground and atmosphere for issuing a resolution against Tehran, to the extent that he believes efforts by China and Russia cannot prevent it.
Nevertheless, Taheri says the most serious and likely factor or obstacle for issuing a resolution is the disagreements between the United States and the three European countries of the JCPOA—Germany, France, and the UK.
Because, according to this senior international affairs analyst, on one hand, the United States, considering its quiet negotiations in Washington and Muscat, is trying to control and stabilize the current tension with Tehran and prevent the escalation of the nuclear crisis alongside the Gaza and Ukraine wars on the eve of the US presidential election.
However, Taheri emphasizes that Germany, France, and the UK have a completely different assessment and are seeking to issue a resolution.
US Pressure on the European Troika
Following what Abolqasem Taheri stated, The Wall Street Journal recently quoted what it called diplomats close to the negotiations, writing that the US government has pressured its three European allies in the JCPOA—Germany, France, and the UK—to back down from plans to confront Iran due to progress in its nuclear program, which could lead to a resolution.
According to these sources, the Biden administration seeks to prevent escalating tensions with Tehran before the US presidential election in the fall.
This American media outlet says Washington opposes efforts by the UK and France to condemn Iran at the International Atomic Energy Agency’s Board of Governors in early June. According to diplomats, the US has pressured not only the European Troika but also several other countries to refrain from voting for a resolution against Iran.
However, alongside The Wall Street Journal’s report, Reuters also revealed that the Biden administration is not inclined to pursue another resolution against Iran in the recent meetings of the International Atomic Energy Agency’s Board of Governors. Before the last quarterly meeting, the European countries, including France, the UK, and Germany, known as the European Troika, did not reach an agreement with Washington on whether to pursue a resolution, but they backed down.
In line with this point, Javad Torabi, another expert, in an interview with Shargh, believes that American political pressure could outweigh the efforts of the three European countries in the JCPOA—Germany, France, and the UK—and even Israel’s sabotage in the quarterly meeting of the Board of Governors.
As a result, he doubts that a binding resolution against Iran’s nuclear program will be issued in next Monday’s meeting or that the case will be referred to the Board of Governors.
However, this analyst acknowledges in his continued assessment that the atmosphere of this session of the Board of Governors’ quarterly meeting will not be in Tehran’s favor at all, and even if we do not witness a binding resolution or referral of the case to the Security Council, it is very likely that we will see harsh statements issued against Tehran.
From Torabi’s perspective, this could also escalate the current tension because, according to this nuclear analyst, it was in the shadow of the statements issued by the three European countries in the previous Board of Governors meeting that Tehran responded by refusing to accept European inspectors from the Agency, which subsequently opened a new chapter of disputes between Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Biden’s Concern About the Election Outcome
In light of these points and based on what Reuters reported, concern about the future of the US presidential election is the main reason for Washington’s reluctance to issue a resolution in the Board of Governors’ quarterly meeting. However, American officials claim that, as in the past, they do not want to give Iran an excuse to respond to its nuclear activities.
Meanwhile, a European diplomat told Reuters that despite the US efforts, a draft resolution has been prepared. Other diplomats have also confirmed that the European Troika has prepared a draft, but it has not been sent to the Board of Governors’ members.
A European diplomat, noting that ‘we must proceed with this resolution,’ said the Americans are preventing the text of this resolution from being distributed among the Board of Governors’ members, and in our discussions, we continue to do everything to persuade them. However, according to this diplomat, it is still unclear when a decision will be made on this matter.
It should be noted that the US’s reluctance to issue a resolution in the Board of Governors’ meeting cannot be seen as a change in Washington’s policies towards Tehran’s nuclear program. As in this context, a spokesperson for the US State Department, in response to the release of the new International Atomic Energy Agency report, claimed that Washington is concerned about the continued production of highly enriched uranium in Iran.
Although this American official did not comment on the details of the Agency’s report, he says, ‘We remain concerned about the continued development of Iran’s nuclear program in ways that, according to him, have no credible civilian purpose, including the continued production of highly enriched uranium.’
In contrast to what was stated, Torabi, in his continued discussion with Shargh, has an optimistic view of the quiet negotiations that have taken place in Oman in recent weeks and were seriously on Tehran’s agenda before the martyrdom of Seyed Ebrahim Raisi, which, however, reached a halt with the absence of the President and Foreign Minister.
However, this JCPOA expert considers the visit of the Omani Foreign Minister to Tehran as a positive signal for continuing the negotiations.
In this regard, Nasser Kanaani, the spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, also mentioned in his press conference this Monday the visit of Badr al-Busaidi, the Omani Foreign Minister, and the possibility of message exchanges from the US to Tehran, stating that the exchange of messages between Iran and the American side for negotiations on lifting sanctions has always been ongoing and has not stopped, and negotiations on lifting sanctions and the nuclear issue have never gone beyond this framework, adding that the contents of the news published in Western media about these talks are not accurate or valid.