The Middle East Awaits
Israel Awaits Iran’s Response
The US is sending ships and warplanes to the Middle East, and Iran might attack Israel at any moment following Haniyeh’s killing in Tehran.
The US military is sending more warships and planes to the Middle East to support Israel and defend against an attack from Iran, which seems imminent.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s promise to punish Israel for the killing of Ismail Haniyeh, the Hamas leader, might be fulfilled in the coming days.
The situation in Lebanon is also very tense, the place from where missiles and rockets might be launched to avenge Ismail Haniyeh, reaching Tel Aviv, after Fouad Shukr, a senior Hezbollah member, was killed last week.
Several countries, including the US, UK, France, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia, have urged their citizens to leave Lebanon as soon as possible.
Following Israeli attacks on Beirut and Tehran, the region appears ready for geographic expansion of the conflict and increased tensions.
Meanwhile, the killings by the Israeli military in Gaza continue, where at least 30 Palestinians, mostly women and children, were killed in the past 24 hours inside two schools that Israel claimed hosted some Hamas operational bases.
Also on Sunday, a tent city near a hospital in the central Gaza Strip was targeted.
The attacks, occurring a day after failed negotiations in Cairo, suggest that by killing Haniyeh, Israel has thwarted any efforts to reach a diplomatic agreement.
Imminent Attack
Israel has been preparing for Iran’s response to the attacks on Beirut and Tehran for days, although it has never claimed responsibility for the attacks on Beirut and Tehran.
According to Axios, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told G7 allies that a counterattack by the Islamic Republic might occur on Monday, although the exact methods and timing are still unclear.
Additionally, US President Joe Biden met with national security staff in the Situation Room on Monday to discuss escalating tensions.
On the sidelines of this meeting, Biden also had a phone conversation with King Abdullah of Jordan.
According to White House advisors, diplomacy and new military tools in the region are moving with the dual aim of acting as a deterrent and being ready in case of attacks, and currently, any speculation about the extent of attacks on Israel is very challenging.
So far, the clashes with Lebanon have been concentrated along the border, with the peak being the massacre in Majdal Shams, which Israel attributes to Hezbollah, while Hezbollah denies any responsibility.
The moment of greatest risk of open conflict with Iran dates back to April when Israel attacked Iranian consular offices in Damascus, and two weeks later, Tehran launched hundreds of missiles and drones towards Israel, which seemed more like a demonstrative action, as Tel Aviv suffered practically no serious damage.
This time, Iran might want to respond in a more dramatic and serious way to the attack that led to the killing of the Hamas leader, which could also be interpreted as a humiliation of its national security system.
Diplomacy at an Impasse
The killing of Ismail Haniyeh is unlikely to have a direct impact on the battlefield, where Israeli retaliation continues.
Moreover, Hamas’s military strategy will likely not change much, as observers believe its military wing planned and executed the October 7 attacks without informing all representatives of its political wing, which Haniyeh represented.
What will certainly change is the fate of negotiations that, in ten months of war, with the exception of a brief ceasefire in late November during which several Israeli hostages were released, have yielded very little, and similarly, no progress was made in the latest negotiations held in Cairo.
On the other hand, killing the chief negotiator effectively means putting a brake on diplomacy and the possibility of reaching an agreement for a ceasefire and the release of hostages.
Therefore, it seems that the Netanyahu government is more interested in achieving its strategic and military goals than in freeing hostages who have practically disappeared from the narrative of war events, with the exact number of how many are still alive and in what conditions remaining unknown.
Meanwhile, closing off any possibility of agreement means increasing risks for the entire region.
The attacks on Beirut and Tehran have been more than anything a display of power by the Israeli government, at the expense of the sense of security for Middle Eastern residents who are increasingly exposed to incidents even outside the borders of Israel and Palestine.
Israel Does Not Stop
On Sunday, we witnessed yet another massacre by Israel in the Gaza Strip, where two schools were hit, and at least 30 people were killed, almost exclusively women and children seeking shelter from the bombing.
The Israeli military, without providing evidence, declared that this was a hideout for the Al-Furqan Brigade of Hamas.
This rhetoric, regularly used in more than 300 days of Israeli retaliation following the October 7 attacks, effectively turns every building in the Gaza Strip into a potential target, even in places where the Israeli military itself has created safe zones.
For the people of Gaza, no place seems safe anymore, even with ongoing evacuations. According to the local Ministry of Health, at least 39,623 Palestinians have been killed by Israel, 40% of whom are children, including those in northern Gaza Strip, where the Israeli military has voluntarily denied access to humanitarian aid, leading to deaths from starvation.
However, these are temporary assessments; without a lasting ceasefire, it’s impossible to dig under the rubble and retrieve the bodies of many missing people, while the consequences of attacking Palestinian soil will have long-term effects on the people living there due to the systematic destruction of facilities and medical infrastructure and infrastructures that ensure water supply, as well as the spread of diseases caused by prolonged stays in inhumane sanitary conditions.
The tensions that seem to be occurring between Israel and Iran are as different as they are similar to those in April.
Similar because, as before, the desire of the parties to re-establish regional deterrence is dictated.
However, it may be different because there may be a breakdown in this unusual game where it seemed the main rule was to escalate tensions to show strength and discourage the opponent’s reaction.
Although neither Hezbollah nor Iran wants to turn the conflict into a regional war, as they have shown well from October to today, the inevitable attack and counterattack with Israel could go beyond the intentions of the players.
In fact, while Netanyahu plays with fire by raising the stakes and betting on a symbolic response from the so-called resistance axis, the greatest danger for Iran and Hezbollah is finding themselves trapped in the same trap they have helped to create in recent years.