Two Possible Scenarios of Iran’s Attack on Israel
Among Middle East observers in Washington, two scenarios are forming regarding the expected retaliation by Iran against Israel this week. Retired U.S. military officer Admiral Mark Montgomery, who previously served as the political director of the Senate Armed Services Committee, says that Iran is unlikely to repeat the kind of attack it launched on April 13 against Israel, which relied heavily on drones and some missile launches that were quickly countered by the United States, Israel, and neighboring armies.
Montgomery, who is now a senior fellow at the right-wing Foundation for Defense of Democracies, added that the drone and missile swarm was significantly thinned out by the U.S. Air Force and other countries before reaching Jordanian airspace, right at the brink of the Israeli border, and Israel managed the rest.
However, Montgomery expects that an attack from Iranian soil remains an option on the table. In that case, his speculation is that Iran would use medium-range ballistic missiles and cruise missiles against Israeli targets. Iran has announced in recent days that it will attack Israel in retaliation for last week’s assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, and evidence suggests that an attack is imminent, as President Joe Biden has gathered his national security team in the situation room, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his cabinet are also prepared.
The second scenario is an attack that largely involves a missile barrage by proxy forces in Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq, minimizing the time Israel and its allies have to preempt and take down these targets.
Jonathan Ruhe, who leads foreign policy work at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America, told NatSec Daily that such an attack is designed to break through Israel’s air defense shields and reduce the Israeli military’s response time.
He said that this time Iran is trying to find a way to impose real and tangible costs on Israel to force it to stop targeting Hezbollah or to cease actions like the assassination of Haniyeh in Tehran.
Tehran has not yet shown much indication of what its desired punishment for Israel would be. Ruhe pointed out that Tehran’s signals in April gave the Israelis ample time to respond and believes that Iran will not seek to repeat this mistake.
The United States has expressed confidence that Israel will be able to fend off whatever Iran throws at it in the coming days.
Jon Finer, the U.S. Deputy National Security Advisor, told CNN on Sunday that Israel faced an extraordinary threat on April 13, and the United States and other partners and allies came together to help Israel defend against and defeat this threat.
The United States expects that regional partners will again come to Israel’s aid regardless of Tehran’s threats. However, this assistance might not be as public as on April 13, when the Jordanian and Saudi Arabian armies shot down drones, partly due to regional frustrations with Israel over Haniyeh’s assassination and the possibility that this attack is designed to evade their air defenses.
It is also unclear whether there is a diplomatic solution at this stage. Adam Smith, a senior member of the House Armed Services Committee, a Democrat from Washington, told CNN that officials have been working to maintain calm and avoid overreactions while ensuring there is sufficient military presence in the region to support Israel, protect American forces, and persuade Iran and its proxies not to escalate tensions. However, Smith acknowledged that this is a highly concerning situation with a high risk of miscalculation.