Preference for Ceasefire Over Revenge
According to Iran Gate, Dmitry Gendelman, an adviser to Benjamin Netanyahu’s office, informed the Russian news agency TASS that it is expected that Mossad Chief David Barnea will lead the Israeli delegation.
Today marks the sixteenth day since the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.
Leaders of regional and extraregional countries, each playing a role in Middle Eastern developments, are following these events with concern.
Because no one yet knows how Iran will respond and whether it will lead to a widespread regional war or not.
There is also another analysis that even if Iran is not waiting for the outcome of the ceasefire, it is currently using fear and psychological operations against Israel. In wars and military actions, Iran usually does not target residential areas.
Perhaps for this reason, we can analyze that the anxiety existing in the Israeli government’s security and military apparatus to assess and prepare for an Iranian attack does not exist to the same extent among the residents of the occupied territories.
Of course, this does not mean Israel is afraid.
Because their crimes in Gaza have continued intensely over these 16 days, still targeting civilians, and the assassination of Hezbollah and Palestinian resistance forces has not stopped.
However, part of their current security and military capacity is occupied with the situation of increased tension with Iran and preventing a potential attack from Tehran.
Western leaders are concerned that Iran might take action against Israel before these talks conclude, escalating tensions to a higher level. Hamas previously announced it would not participate in these negotiations because the Israeli Prime Minister sets new conditions each time.
The American newspaper Wall Street Journal also reported, citing informed sources, that Yahya Sinwar, the head of Hamas’s political bureau, sent a message to Egypt and Qatar, the Arab mediators, stating that the Hamas negotiating team will only participate in the ceasefire talks if Israeli military operations stop.
In the past two days, hypotheses have been raised about Iran possibly refraining from responding to Haniyeh’s assassination in exchange for establishing a ceasefire in Gaza.
Reuters reported, quoting three senior Iranian officials, that if a ceasefire is established in Gaza and the war ends, Iran will refrain from responding. During the Gaza war, about 40,000 civilians have been killed so far.
Reuters Claim
On Tuesday, Reuters published an exclusive report about Iran’s intention to forgo an attack on Israel in exchange for establishing a ceasefire in Gaza.
According to Asr Iran, Reuters, citing three unnamed senior Iranian officials, claimed that only a ceasefire agreement in Gaza resulting from expected negotiations this week would prevent Iran from directly retaliating against Israel for the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the Hamas leader, on its soil.
Another part of this report stated that Iran has pledged to give a serious response to the assassination of Haniyeh, which occurred late last month during his trip to Tehran, blaming Israel for it.
Israel has neither confirmed nor denied its involvement in this assassination.
The United States Navy has deployed warships and a submarine to bolster the defense of Israel in the Middle East.
According to Reuters, one of Iran’s senior security officials said that if the Gaza negotiations fail or believe Israel is delaying the talks, Iran, along with allies like Hezbollah, will carry out a direct attack.
These sources did not specify how long Iran would allow the negotiations to proceed before directly responding militarily to Israel.
According to these sources, who wished to remain anonymous, with the increased risk of a broader war in the Middle East following the assassinations of Haniyeh and Fuad Shukr, a senior Hezbollah commander, Iran has been engaged in discussions with Western countries and the United States about ways to manage retaliation.
Biden’s Expression of Hope
U.S. President Joe Biden, who traveled to New Orleans, Louisiana, on Tuesday, August 13, told reporters in response to a question about whether he expects Iran to refrain from retaliatory attacks on Israel if a ceasefire agreement is reached, ‘That is my expectation.’
We will see what Iran does, we will see what happens. According to Euronews, he expressed concern about this attack and its consequences on the ceasefire agreement and the release of hostages in Gaza, saying that reaching an agreement has become more difficult, but he will not give up.
Pentagon’s Assessment of Iran’s Response
Pentagon spokesman Pat Ryder commented on Iran’s potential response on Wednesday, local time. According to Sharq, Ryder told reporters, ‘We are not going to speculate on the date and time Iran might carry out an attack or one of their proxies might carry out an attack. Iranian public statements have been very clear, so we must take them seriously.’
However, our focus is on preventing escalation, working towards a ceasefire, and the release of hostages.
The Need for Proper Analysis of Washington-Tel Aviv Relations
An important point that various analysts have repeatedly emphasized is the need to obtain a proper analysis of the relationship between the U.S. and the Tel Aviv regime. Currently, the U.S., due to its domestic and regional interests, is trying to prevent the outbreak of a widespread war in the region.
It is pressuring Israel to accept a ceasefire for its own interests, and among the elites and ruling body of that country, there is disagreement about how to deal with Israel’s actions, particularly the genocide in Gaza, which requires further analysis.
In this context, an important point to consider is the U.S.’s belief in preserving Israel’s existence. If this widespread war threatens Israel’s existence, the U.S. will naturally try to prevent it, and if it starts, it considers itself obligated to defend the Zionist regime.
For this reason, the U.S. has not wavered in its support for Israel during all the past months that the war in Gaza has continued.
Qasem Mohebb Ali, a former diplomat of our country, said about the proposed hypothesis of ceasefire instead of revenge, ‘This issue benefits the Palestinians, the Gaza war ends, and the risk of war is removed from the region.’
The fact that Iran has the right to respond is one discussion, and when to use it is another. If this claim is true, it benefits the region, Palestine, and Lebanon. I think if such a thing has been proposed, it will be welcomed by various parties in this equation.
He noted about the impact of this decision on Iran’s regional and international image, ‘It certainly has a positive impact. Everyone is currently worried about the start of a war and more people being killed in Gaza. The dire humanitarian situation in this strip and the shortage of water, medicine, and food they are struggling with is a motivation to end this situation.’
Lebanese people are also worried that a large-scale direct conflict might begin. I believe that Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria, Iraq, Egypt, and the Gulf countries have no interest in starting this war and welcome this issue because if a war occurs, we all suffer losses.
Even the continuation of this current crisis is damaging for us. If this action is true, the region’s countries will welcome Iran more, which has foregone its natural right for the region’s interests and preventing the start of war.
No country benefits from war.
Hassan Hanizadeh, a Middle East analyst, also believes that the Israeli regime, the U.S., and European countries are terrified of Iran’s crushing response to the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, which is why the pressure on Netanyahu to accept a ceasefire has increased.
Western countries’ analysis is that if Iran decides to respond to Israel, this response will not be limited to Tehran’s action.
They believe that the axis of resistance from Yemen to Lebanon, Iraq, and Syria might simultaneously attack Israel and open five fronts against this regime. Such a front, if it does not lead to Israel’s destruction, will result in serious damage and trigger a widespread war.
The perception of extraregional powers is that, first and foremost, a ceasefire, even if tactical and temporary, should be established so that if a front is opened by Iran, at least the internal front in Gaza is calm, and in reality, Israel can confront the external front outside its occupied territories. This perception is close to reality, and they are trying to establish a ceasefire as soon as possible before Iran initiates an operation against Israel.
I believe that Iran will give the necessary response to Israel at the right time and place. Currently, there are many pressures and messages.
The Americans have sent several messages and even incentives to Iran not to respond because the region cannot endure a widespread war.
Emmanuel Macron, in contact with the President, urgently requested that the issue of attacking Israel be removed from the agenda.
The British Prime Minister, regional figures like the King and Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, the King of Jordan, and even the President of Egypt have sent messages and requested that Iran refrain from responding to Israel.
Because all the countries in the region will be harmed by the outbreak of a war between Iran, Israel, and the axis of resistance.
Therefore, everyone is trying to calm Iran down, but Israel has violated Iran’s national sovereignty, and I believe an appropriate response will be given at the right time and place.