The Russian Black Corridor
The Russian Black Corridor: After the rhetoric of Azerbaijani and Turkish officials regarding what is called the Zangezur Corridor, Russia has recently joined the supporters of establishing this corridor. The route connecting the Republic of Azerbaijan to the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic, which is part of this country, has become a problem these days between the two main actors, Baku and Yerevan, on one side, and other countries including Iran, Turkey, and Russia on the other.
For more than three decades, that is, after the first Karabakh war when this region was occupied by Armenia, Azerbaijan had access to Nakhchivan through Iran, and Iran had no problem with this matter. However, after the second Karabakh war in 2020, when Azerbaijan regained control over most of the mountainous Karabakh regions, the discussion of creating a corridor in the Syunik province, which Azerbaijan calls Western Zangezur, has intensified. In fact, Baku wants to use this corridor, located on the border between Iran and Armenia, so it won’t have to connect to Nakhchivan through Iran anymore.
Meanwhile, Iran has no opposition to implementing the ninth clause of the 2020 Karabakh ceasefire agreement, which includes Azerbaijan’s access to Nakhchivan through Iran. For the past three decades, the connection between Baku and the Nakhchivan region was only through Iran. To examine the disputes between Azerbaijan and Armenia, one must refer to the first Karabakh war from 1991 to 1994. The mountainous Karabakh region is 4,000 square kilometers, a very high and mountainous area. This region includes cities like Khankendi, Askeran, and Shusha, which during the Soviet era covered 4,000 kilometers.
During the first Karabakh war from 1991 to 1994, Armenia not only declared independence in that region but also took over seven surrounding districts, covering nearly 10,000 kilometers. These cities include Jabrayil, Fuzuli, Zangilan, Gubadli, Aghdam, Lachin, and Kalbajar. Therefore, Armenia occupied 4,000 kilometers of mountainous Karabakh and 10,000 kilometers of its surrounding districts. Armenia’s goal in taking these districts was to create a buffer around mountainous Karabakh to prevent Azerbaijan from besieging this area. In the thirty years following that, all these regions were almost depopulated, serving only as a buffer or security membrane.
During the second Karabakh war in 2020, Azerbaijan managed to capture these seven regions plus the city of Shusha from within mountainous Karabakh. Three years later, in September 2023, Azerbaijan also managed to capture mountainous Karabakh during a one-day war, leading to over 100,000 residents fleeing to Armenia. Now, nearly less than a thousand people remain in Karabakh. None of the regions taken by Armenia in the 1990s are under its control anymore, and Azerbaijan has reclaimed them all. Today, the debate is over determining border limits because the border limits between Armenia and Azerbaijan have not been set. The reason is that western Azerbaijan in Karabakh was under Armenian control, and thus, unlike other Soviet republics, the borders were not demarcated.
What does the Kremlin say?
In recent days, Moscow has also sided with Baku. After Vladimir Putin’s visit to Azerbaijan two weeks ago, the spokesperson for the country’s foreign ministry announced Moscow’s support for the plan to create the Zangezur corridor. This is while Russia previously had a passive stance regarding this region and never took such an explicit stance. Following Vladimir Putin’s visit to Baku, Sergey Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, said in an interview with Russia’s Channel One, ‘We support the rapid conclusion of a peace treaty between Baku and Yerevan and the unblocking of communications.’ He described the Armenian government as an obstacle to this important matter and added, ‘Unfortunately, it is the Armenian leadership that is obstructing the agreement signed by Prime Minister Pashinyan regarding communications from the Syunik region of Armenia.’
Then, Maria Zakharova, the spokesperson for the Russian Foreign Ministry, also stated that Zangezur is a route that can connect Azerbaijan’s main territory to Nakhchivan through Syunik, Armenia. She added that the unblocking of Zangezur will certainly be discussed within the framework of trilateral peace talks with Armenia. When asked about Iran’s stance, Zakharova told reporters, ‘We have seen the Iranian side’s concerns regarding the Zangezur corridor, which should be clarified with Tehran.’ However, Moscow’s stance on this matter is entirely definitive. We proceed based on the fact that the solution must be acceptable to Armenia, Azerbaijan, and the region’s neighbors. This Russian stance once again prompted the Islamic Republic to reiterate our country’s clear position on the non-change of borders.
The Clasped Hands of Turkey and Baku
Of course, before Russia, Turkey was among the countries that strongly supported the plan to create such a corridor. Some experts say that the ultimate goal of Baku and Turkey in creating the corridor is actually to take over the Syunik province region on the Iran-Armenia border and that they harbor territorial expansion motivations. Additionally, since a large portion of Azerbaijan’s oil is extracted by British Petroleum, some speak of the role of Western countries and NATO in creating this corridor and believe that ultimately, creating such a corridor would facilitate the easier export of Azerbaijan’s Caspian oil to Europe. However, some also point to Turkey and Azerbaijan’s motivations regarding the Turkic world and argue that Baku and Ankara are dreaming of expanding the Turkic territory.
Previously, Vali Golmohammadi, a professor at Tarbiat Modares University, told Donya-e-Eqtesad about Turkey’s motivations for involvement in the Caucasus region. He said, ‘Today, Turkey has distanced itself from its active engagement in the chaotic Middle East, especially the Arab Middle East from North Africa to the Eastern Mediterranean, and is defining new strategic interests in Central Eurasia for itself. This is because Ankara, like other players, feels that Central Eurasia is becoming the heartland of wealth and power distribution in the international system.’ He emphasized that Zangezur is the missing piece of the middle corridor puzzle that Turkey wants to use to complete its strategic connections. He stressed that Iran is Turkey’s most important competitor in the east-to-west corridors, and Turkey’s effort is to ensure that Iran does not benefit much from this capacity, so it can have more bargaining power.
Why Iran is Opposed
Iran opposes the creation of a corridor known as Zangezur and has valid reasons. Baku does not want to accept this corridor under Armenian sovereignty but wants to create such a corridor without any interference from Yerevan, meaning there would be no checkpoints from Armenia in this area, which would be considered a violation of this country’s national sovereignty. At the same time, if such a corridor is established, not only would Baku’s geopolitical dependency on Iran disappear, but Azerbaijan might even pressure Iran to connect to Armenia and Europe, which can only be done through this border. Additionally, considering Armenia’s weak government, if the Zangezur corridor is established, it might de facto lead to Azerbaijan’s control over this area, even though it would de jure and legally remain under Armenian control.
In another scenario, it is not unlikely that if Armenia is granted concessions, it might enter into such a mechanism and agree to the creation of the corridor. In this case, the question arises as to what Iran should do in the face of this scenario. Iran has repeatedly stated that it is completely opposed to any changes in its borders, a matter that has even been accepted by Western countries like the United States, the United Kingdom, and France. In this regard, Seyyed Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s Foreign Minister, said on Thursday on the social network X, ‘Any threat to the territorial integrity of our neighbors or the redrawing of borders, whether in the north, south, east, or west, is completely unacceptable and is considered a red line for Iran.’ Araghchi added, ‘Regional peace, security, and stability are not just a priority but one of the pillars of our national security.’
Three Scenarios for Iran
The Islamic Republic of Iran will face three scenarios. The first is that Azerbaijan and the supporters of the Zangezur corridor plan retreat from pursuing such a plan, and Azerbaijan continues to use the route through Iran to connect to Nakhchivan as before. The second scenario is that this corridor is created under Armenian sovereignty, and Azerbaijan moves through such a corridor under the supervision of the Armenian government. However, the third and most dangerous scenario is that Azerbaijan covets the seizure of this region, which will change the border between Iran and Armenia. Iran has repeatedly warned about such an issue, and perhaps the first option that comes to mind in the event of the occupation of the Syunik province is the use of military options. But it is clear to everyone that if Iran were to engage in military conflict on its northern borders, it would have many consequences.
Therefore, it is better for Tehran to prevent such a scenario from occurring and, through diplomatic negotiations and participation in its own corridor and transit projects, become one of the components of such plans and prevent the realization of dangerous and ominous scenarios.
