Confrontation with Hezbollah with U.S. Support
Over the past eleven months, global attention has been focused on the Gaza Strip as Israeli forces have been engaged in military operations against Hamas. While the major conflict in Gaza has dominated the news, Iran’s proxy force, Hezbollah, has continued to conduct aerial attacks on northern Israel.
These attacks have displaced tens of thousands of Israelis from their homes. On Tuesday morning, Israel’s security cabinet voted to add the safe return of the displaced to the official goals of the war. This vote took place hours after Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told U.S. special envoy Amos Hochstein that he was not confident in a ceasefire agreement and that the only remaining way to ensure the return of northern Israeli communities to their homes was military action.
This decision followed months of fruitless mediation efforts by Hochstein and the Biden administration officials. It was reported that Hochstein told Gallant and others on Tuesday that military action would not guarantee the security of Israeli civilians and would instead increase the risk of a wider regional war. However, since many of Hochstein’s previous mediation efforts had failed and there was no other solution to the crisis on Israel’s northern border, Israeli leaders indicated they were compelled to mitigate this threat.
Hezbollah is Growing Stronger
Pressure from the Biden administration on Israel to prevent a wider conflict with Hezbollah has forced Israel into a series of low-intensity exchanges. For example, after twelve Israeli Druze children were killed, White House spokesman John Kirby said that, from our perspective, there is no reason for this issue to lead to any significant escalation. In line with the U.S.’s desire to prevent escalation, Israel conducted a targeted assassination operation against Hezbollah commander Fouad Shukr in July, which failed to reduce tensions.
While the White House may believe that limited conflicts are preferable to large-scale military operations, this strategy prevents Israel from achieving its security objectives. This approach also brings the region closer to a wider conflict as both sides gradually expand the scope of their attacks. This situation is exactly the scenario the U.S. government is striving to avoid.
Additionally, the delay in confrontation gives Hezbollah the opportunity to enhance its capabilities as Iran injects more resources into it, further endangering U.S. interests. The 2024 annual threat assessment report from the U.S. Director of National Intelligence’s office states that Hezbollah seeks to limit U.S. influence in Lebanon and the broader Middle East, goals it shares with the Iranian government. The stronger Hezbollah becomes, the greater its ability to threaten U.S. allies, forces, and influence in the region. Besides countering Hezbollah’s objectives, U.S. involvement and support can help contain and deter Iran and demonstrate to Russia, China, and other countries that the U.S. continues to support its allies and is willing to maintain its influence in the region.
Since the Israeli military’s capabilities have been spread across multiple fronts since the Hamas attacks on October 7, 2023, Hezbollah has taken the opportunity to test Israel’s air defense limitations. Hezbollah has also used its intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance capabilities to compile a list of significant military, civilian, and infrastructure targets in Israel. The full extent of Hezbollah’s military capabilities is unknown, but estimates suggest the group has over 150,000 surface-to-surface missiles, more than ten times the number it had at the start of the Second Lebanon War in 2006.
Reports also indicate that the group has about 2,000 drones, 25,000 to 30,000 active forces, and a similar number of reserve forces. More importantly, these forces now have combat experience, having fought in the Syrian civil war in support of the Assad regime. According to reports, other fighters from Iraq and Syria are also coming to Lebanon to bolster Hezbollah’s ranks. All of this data indicates an increase in Hezbollah’s offensive capabilities over time. This threat is exacerbated by the potential for Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon in the near future, which could create an ultimate deterrent by supporting Hezbollah.
The longer Israel waits to confront Hezbollah, the more time it gives Iran to arm and train its proxy force and move towards producing a deliverable nuclear weapon, likely increasing the complexity and devastation of future conflicts.
Israel’s Need for U.S. Support
If Israel initiates military operations in southern Lebanon, it will need immediate arms sales and military assistance to ensure its forces’ effectiveness in southern Lebanon and to maintain the security of its population. Given the potential intensity of Hezbollah’s airstrikes, the capacity of the Iron Dome and David’s Sling interception systems will be overwhelmed. To maintain the full functionality of Israel’s air defense systems, the United States must provide the necessary military aid so that Israel can purchase the vital equipment needed.
To further support its ally, the U.S. should deploy necessary naval forces in the region to enhance cooperation between the two militaries and support Israel’s complex yet vulnerable air defense systems. U.S. Central Command must coordinate regional efforts to neutralize missiles and attacks from Iran and its proxies, similar to what the U.S. did during Iran’s attack in April. Israel’s attack on Hezbollah’s missile launch platforms in August demonstrated Israel’s intelligence capabilities in anticipating a large-scale attack.
To support this effort, the U.S. can provide passive support through enhanced reconnaissance and targeting capabilities via Aegis and E2 Hawkeye systems, as well as broader information sharing. U.S. assistance in reconnaissance and targeting, combined with its regional efforts, will enable Israel to fully concentrate its capabilities on Hezbollah and position Israel optimally to reduce the effectiveness of Hezbollah’s airstrikes.
The last way the U.S. can aid Israel’s efforts is through overt support on the international stage. Following the October 7 attacks, Israel received broad support for its military operations in Gaza. As the war continues and public exposure to the violence of urban warfare and information warfare campaigns against Israel increases, this international support has waned. Operations in Lebanon would be justified as Hezbollah has targeted Israel since October 8, 2023, launching over 7,500 ballistic rockets and drones since then. Malicious actors on the international stage will attempt to delegitimize Israel’s actions. To support the rules-based international order, it is crucial for the U.S. to support military operations that defend the sovereignty of a democratic and allied state.
While many Americans are understandably concerned about their country getting involved in another war in the Middle East, Israeli officials have stated that they are prepared to do most of the work themselves, despite their forces being stretched across multiple fronts. Israel will need U.S. support through military aid, intelligence assistance, missile defense support, and overt international backing. There are clear reasons for the U.S. to support this effort, as confronting Iran by weakening Hezbollah improves regional stability by reducing Iran’s strongest deterrent threat against Israel. Additionally, by further weakening Hezbollah, Israel can play a greater role in combating Iran’s proxy forces, which in turn strengthens U.S. security interests in the region.
Just as supporting Ukraine allowed the U.S. to weaken one of its near-peer competitors without deploying military forces, supporting Israel provides the U.S. with the opportunity to weaken another actor, namely Iran, without American forces being present on the battlefield. The growing ties between U.S. adversaries around the world, particularly China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, must be addressed, and the most effective way to do this is by leveraging the U.S.’s powerful alliance network.
By supporting Israel’s efforts to secure its northern border, the U.S. can demonstrate its resolve and restore its regional deterrence, sending a message to revisionist actors that it remains committed to defending its allies globally. This is particularly important as China, Russia, and Iran continuously work to solidify their geopolitical foothold in the region and seek to disrupt the U.S.’s role as the region’s security guarantor.
The Lebanese government cannot control Hezbollah’s actions and has, willingly or unwillingly, allowed Hezbollah to turn the country into an operational base for Iran’s terrorist activities. Given this and Hezbollah’s direct attacks, it is understandable why Israel feels compelled to conduct military operations in southern Lebanon. While Israeli officials have explicitly stated they will fight alone if necessary, the U.S.’s strategic interests lie in supporting Israel as it seeks to eliminate the Hezbollah threat. Supporting Israel in this fight will be a crucial step in deterring and containing Iran and will demonstrate that the U.S. can provide credible security guarantees and prevent Russia and China from filling its power vacuum in the region.
