The End of Nasrallah
Israel Announces Nasrallah’s Death in Lebanon
The End of Nasrallah: Israel announced the killing of Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah for over thirty years. This is a final move to escalate tensions but also paves the way for unpredictable scenarios.
Hassan Nasrallah can no longer terrorize the world. These are the words used in a social media post by the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) to confirm the killing of the Secretary-General of Hezbollah, the Lebanese paramilitary group. The Shiite movement, politically linked to Iran and considered one of Tehran’s most important assets in the region, did not immediately confirm the news and began releasing some scattered reports starting Friday evening.
In any case, this is the climax of an escalation that began last week with the explosion of beepers and walkie-talkies in the possession of various Hezbollah forces, which also led to civilian casualties and injuries. Subsequently, Israel launched a widespread bombardment in the Land of the Cedars and continued to eliminate Hezbollah leaders like Ibrahim Aqil, head of the elite Radwan forces, reaching Nasrallah in the chain of command, the first on the list among organizational leaders that Israel completely considers a terrorist organization.
What Happened
On Friday evening, the Israeli military intensified its attacks across southern Lebanon as well as in Beirut, particularly targeting the southern quarter of the city, considered a Hezbollah stronghold. Following precise intelligence, the Israeli military stated in a note derived from Tel Aviv media that Israeli Air Force fighters carried out a targeted attack on the central headquarters of the Hezbollah terrorist organization located under a residential building in the Dahiyeh area of Beirut.
According to what has been reconstructed, Ali Karaki, Hezbollah’s number three, was also killed in this attack. It seemed that the Lebanese organization’s commander in the south of the country, Karaki, was killed in an Israeli attack earlier this week, but it later emerged that he survived. In the early hours of the attack, in the absence of official confirmation or denial from Hezbollah about the fate of the party’s leader, the Tasnim news agency believed that Nasrallah had survived the attack.
However, finally today, Saturday, September 28, Hezbollah confirmed Nasrallah’s death. According to Israeli sources, Tel Aviv had informed the United States shortly before the attack, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had authorized the attack from New York, where he was attending the United Nations General Assembly.
Hezbollah Without Nasrallah
Hezbollah’s history is rooted in the second phase of Lebanon’s internal conflict, 1975-1990, and over the years, this movement has monopolized Lebanon’s political life. Fighting Israel is the cornerstone of Hezbollah’s ideology, which has been linked with Iran since its birth in 1982. The Islamic Republic has, in fact, been helping to arm and train the Lebanese group’s militants since the 1980s.
Iran’s intention, as at that time, is to use Lebanese militants in the Middle East region. Nasrallah became the Secretary-General of the organization in 1992, and in the same year, Hezbollah participated in parliamentary elections, facing resistance within the party. A major change that Nasrallah’s leadership brought to Hezbollah’s history and ideology was transforming the organization from a mainly sectarian movement and armed resistance with a radical view into a more influential, flexible, and deeply rooted political and military force in Lebanon’s fabric and society.
What Happens Now
Nasrallah’s killing is the latest chapter in a long-standing crisis that began on October 7 of last year. Since then, Israel, in addition to carrying out a very heavy ground assault in the Gaza Strip in terms of casualties, has eliminated several Hamas and Hezbollah commanders as well as Iran’s Revolutionary Guards.
The raid on Nasrallah comes almost two months after the elimination of Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas, at his residence in Tehran.
At this stage, once again, all eyes are on Tehran, which cannot endure a similar blow in silence or with a symbolic reaction like what happened in recent months.
Iranian leadership, with Ali Khamenei as its leader, was preemptively moved to a safe location after the news of the attack on Beirut was released, probably knowing that it cannot engage in direct confrontation with Israel, which has a clear technological superiority as well as nuclear capability and a nuclear response.
Exactly for this reason, Tehran has employed asymmetric warfare over the years, using its regional proxies for indirect strikes. But the problem is that Tehran’s spearhead in the Middle East, Hezbollah, now finds itself with a decapitated leadership and facing many challenges.
Killing Nasrallah puts the region on the brink of conflict beyond imagination. The fact that Israel has known the leader of Hezbollah’s position for some time, although many considered it unlikely, is entirely plausible.
However, until a few months ago, no one thought that Israel’s leadership really wanted to eliminate him.
Nasrallah has been a thorn in Tel Aviv’s side for more than thirty years, but especially after 2006, he set clear rules for interacting with his perennial rival and, in many cases, avoided conflicts with catastrophic consequences.
Killing him today not only casts a shadow over the future of Lebanon’s paramilitary party but also affects Hezbollah’s stance in continuing the war. If Nasrallah, by any means, tried to prevent escalation, it is unclear what will happen with a change in leadership.
Ultimately, it is believed that the killing of the Secretary-General of Hezbollah Lebanon complicates Tehran’s calculations as well. Tehran, which has so far tried to stay far from regional conflicts, has lost its closest ally today, someone who practically supported the development of the so-called resistance axis, and Hezbollah finds itself in a tough and challenging situation.
If until two days ago, Iran’s leader Ali Khamenei praised the power of Lebanese militants and seemed to want to wash his hands of a potential attack on Israel, today something may have changed. The start of a regional war becomes closer and more likely, and many will have no problem blaming Israel.
