American THAAD in Israel
It has been reported in the news that the United States will deploy the THAAD missile defense system in Israel.
We must see whether the deployment of this new system will facilitate the acceptance of UN Resolution 1701 for a ceasefire, or whether this system will destroy diplomatic avenues and lead to a devastating war.
After Iran’s missile attack under the name ‘Operation Promise of Truth 2’ and the missiles passing through Israel’s Iron Dome, Israel considered deploying this system on its soil. Twelve days have passed since this attack, and Israel has not yet reacted, although there has been talk of a heavy and surprise attack.
In the meantime, speculation and the possibility of a deal between Joe Biden and Benjamin Netanyahu are not far-fetched. The potential deployment of the THAAD defense system and strengthening Israel’s military arsenal in exchange for not launching a massive and heavy attack on Iran.
Of course, this does not mean that Israel will refrain from limited attacks. The second speculation is that Israel will launch a heavy attack on Iran, which Iran will seek to retaliate against, making the need for a missile defense system in Israel more pressing than ever.
Meanwhile, yesterday Netanyahu, under the pretext of Hezbollah’s human shield, asked UN peacekeeping forces to withdraw from southern Lebanon, indicating continued attacks in southern Lebanon and a protracted war in Lebanon despite international regulations.
After a phone call between Biden and Netanyahu, and the U.S. opposition to attacking Iran’s nuclear and oil facilities, Israel has not shown any reaction for now. The Democratic Party knows that an attack on Iran’s oil facilities and the consequent rise in oil and gasoline prices will make it difficult to gain votes for the party and will bolster Trump’s voter base, as Biden had also warned Ukraine against attacking Russian refineries due to reduced supply and increased gasoline prices.
Therefore, the interests of the United States and the Democratic Party lie in Israel not attacking Iran and in de-escalation, with a preference for a protracted conflict in southern Lebanon before the U.S. elections.
However, to what extent Netanyahu and his cabinet will be satisfied with limited attacks on Iran in exchange for acquiring the THAAD missile defense system, or whether they will create conditions for Trump’s return, with whom they are more aligned, remains to be seen.
They have made efforts to gather evidence of Iran’s knowledge of the October 7 attack and Iran’s involvement in this attack to sway public opinion against Iran and to justify a potential attack on Iran.
Now we must see whether the deployment of this new system will facilitate the acceptance of UN Resolution 1701 for a ceasefire, or whether this system will destroy diplomatic avenues and lead to a devastating war.