One Hundred Days with the Government of Consensus
One Hundred Days with the Government of Consensus
The first hundred days of governance are the outlook for the progressive policies of any government. Franklin Roosevelt, who was the U.S. President during the reigns of Reza Shah and Mohammad Reza Shah, believed that the path to overcoming a crisis should be laid in the first hundred days.
François Mitterrand, the President of France, contemporaneous with the presidencies of Ali Khamenei and Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, also believed that the approach to reforms for public welfare should be demonstrated to the people within the first hundred days.
John Major, who was the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom during Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani’s presidency, also considered the fundamental orientation of any government to be established in the first hundred days of governance.
In this article, we examine the first hundred days of Masoud Pezeshkian’s government and compare it with Ebrahim Raisi’s government to provide an economic outlook for the upcoming years. The economic record of a government is the record of ministries and organizations that manage the country’s economy, and we will review these.
Ministry of Economic Affairs and Finance
The Ministry of Economic Affairs and Finance is responsible for macro financial policies, budget regulation and execution, supervision of banks, financial institutions, and the capital market, management of tax policies, encouragement of domestic and foreign investment, and management of state assets. This responsibility was assigned to Ehsan Khandozi, aged 42, in Ebrahim Raisi’s government and to Abdolnaser Hemmati, aged 66, in Masoud Pezeshkian’s government. Both hold doctorates in economics.
Before becoming a minister, Ehsan Khandozi worked in entities close to the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic, such as the Economic Council of the Broadcasting Organization and the Parliamentary Economic Commission, while Abdolnaser Hemmati had served as the head of the Central Insurance, the Economic Committee of the Supreme National Security Council, and the Central Bank.
Ehsan Khandozi’s economic view was close to Ali Khamenei’s resistance economy and self-sufficiency. Therefore, in his first hundred days as minister, he only allowed the private sector and the capital market within the framework of the resistance economy and support for revolutionary institutions. He opposed joining the FATF under sanction conditions and put excess state properties up for sale to help the budget.
Abdolnaser Hemmati has a more open economic view and supports reducing the government’s role, boosting the private sector, joining the international community, and the FATF. However, during these hundred days, he did not take any action regarding liberalization and joining the FATF, just as he hadn’t during his tenure as Central Bank governor. After three months and a few days, there is no significant difference in the economic record of the finance ministers of Raisi’s and Pezeshkian’s governments in terms of fighting rent-seeking and leaning towards transparency and a market economy.
Ministry of Oil
The task of the Ministry of Oil in the Islamic Republic of Iran is to manage the extraction, production, distribution, and export of oil and gas products, as well as international investments and collaborations. Javad Owji and Mohsen Paknejad, both born in 1966, were selected by Ebrahim Raisi and Masoud Pezeshkian, respectively, for the Ministry of Oil. Javad Owji is a graduate in petroleum engineering from the Oil Industry University, and Mohsen Paknejad holds a bachelor’s degree in electrical engineering from the University of Tehran and a master’s in industrial engineering from Amirkabir University of Technology.
Before becoming the Minister of Oil, Javad Owji was the CEO of the National Gas Company, deputy head of the Atomic Energy Organization, advisor to the Minister of Oil, head of the Fuel Supply Headquarters, project manager for gas field development, director of oil exports, and a main board member of the Central Regions Oil Company of Iran. In his first hundred days as Minister of Oil, Javad Owji aimed to increase production and exports and to initiate joint projects, especially with neighboring countries. Given the easing of sanctions by the U.S. government, he managed to achieve some success in oil exports.
In contrast, Mohsen Paknejad placed more importance on transparency and attracting foreign investment but was unable to implement any of his plans to improve financial processes, contracts, create favorable conditions for attracting foreign investment, reduce domestic oil consumption, and develop renewable energies.
Ministry of Industry, Mine, and Trade
The Ministry of Industry, Mine, and Trade (IMT) in the Islamic Republic is responsible for enhancing domestic production competitiveness, managing domestic and foreign trade, and providing administrative support for the development of infrastructure and small and large businesses. Seyed Reza Fatemi-Amin at age 47 and Seyed Mohammad Atabak at age 66 became the Ministers of Industry, Mine, and Trade in the governments of Ebrahim Raisi and Masoud Pezeshkian, respectively. The former holds a doctorate in strategic knowledge management, and the latter has a master’s degree in civil engineering from the University of Michigan, USA. The economic views of these two ministers differ.
Like many others in Ebrahim Raisi’s government, Fatemi-Amin believed in supportive policies and economic self-sufficiency and opposed joining the FATF, while Atabak, perhaps due to his education in the USA, showed a greater inclination towards cross-border trade and attracting foreign investment.
Before becoming the Minister of IMT, Seyed Reza Fatemi-Amin held responsibilities such as deputy minister of IMT, head of the Industrial and Mining Transformation Headquarters, and managing investments and partnerships of the Astan Quds Razavi. Meanwhile, Seyed Mohammad Atabak was the CEO of one of the largest holding companies of the Foundation of the Oppressed, the Kaveh Pars Mineral Industries Holding, which had shares in cement, steel, aluminum, and mineral industries. In addition, Seyed Mohammad Atabak was also the economic deputy of the Foundation of the Oppressed.
In the first hundred days of their ministry, both ministers had ambitious goals for their differing priorities. Fatemi-Amin focused on supporting local producers and self-sufficiency, while Atabak aimed to expand the competitiveness of domestic production, cross-border trade, and attract foreign investment.
During this three-month period, Seyed Reza Fatemi-Amin imposed tariffs on goods with domestic equivalents, such as clothing and home appliances, collaborated with customs and law enforcement to reduce goods smuggling, and pressured the Central Bank to provide low-interest facilities to domestic industries, especially small and medium-sized enterprises. He also committed to increasing steel production capacity to 40 million tons by 2026.
In contrast, Seyed Mohammad Atabak in Pezeshkian’s government pursued foreign investment attraction, cross-border cooperation for expanding mineral industries, and facilitating imports and exports. Reportedly, he signed memorandums of understanding worth about $500 million in the steel, aluminum, and copper mining industries with international companies without naming these companies, and tried to attract Iraq, Turkey, and Qatar for joint mineral extraction and processing projects.
Atabak also reduced customs tariffs for the export of non-ferrous metals like copper and zinc and for the import of machinery and industrial technologies, and launched an online platform for public transparency of government contracts.
Ministry of Cooperatives, Labor, and Social Welfare
The Ministry of Cooperatives, Labor, and Social Welfare in the Islamic Republic is supposed to support the vulnerable, workers, and expand employment in various economic sectors. Hojatollah Abdolmaleki, aged 40, and Ahmad Meidari, aged 61, were appointed as the ministers of Cooperatives, Labor, and Social Welfare in the governments of Ebrahim Raisi and Masoud Pezeshkian, respectively. Both hold doctorates in economics, the former from Imam Sadiq University, which was established to integrate Islamic and human sciences, and the latter from the University of Tehran.
Before becoming a minister, Hojatollah Abdolmaleki worked in principled institutions related to the Supreme Leader, such as the deputy head of the Imam Khomeini Relief Committee and a board member of the Relief Committee, while Ahmad Meidari was the deputy for social welfare in the eleventh and twelfth governments of Hassan Rouhani, a member of the Islamic Consultative Assembly, and an economic advisor in various institutions. Hojatollah Abdolmaleki believed in Islamic and resistance economy and Ayatollah Khamenei’s self-sufficiency guidance and opposed joining the FATF, seeing it as a barrier to bypassing sanctions. Ahmad Meidari worked in the field of development economics and policymaking and had a more open view towards the FATF, international trade, and foreign investment.
In the first hundred days of their ministry, the two ministers of Cooperatives, Labor, and Social Welfare adopted different approaches. Hojatollah Abdolmaleki initiated plans like the Home Jobs Support System and financial facilities for domestic jobs to support the self-sufficiency and resistance economy desired by the leader, but he was not successful in implementing his programs due to financial constraints.
Ahmad Meidari, with a more open approach, focused on labor market development through cooperation with neighboring countries and creating job opportunities through joint investments, none of which were achieved. He also created an information transparency system to support vulnerable groups and reduce social inequalities with the help of digital platforms.
Planning and Budget Organization
The President’s economic team in the Islamic Republic also includes the Planning and Budget Organization, which is not a ministry but is responsible for planning, budgeting, managing development, and evaluating government agencies in implementing projects. Ebrahim Raisi appointed Masoud Mir-Kazemi, born in 1960, and Masoud Pezeshkian appointed Mohammad-Bagher Nobakht, born in 1950, as heads of the Planning and Budget Organization. Mir-Kazemi holds a doctorate in industrial management from Tarbiat Modares University, and Mohammad-Bagher Nobakht holds a doctorate in economics from the University of Paisley, Scotland.
Before heading the Planning and Budget Organization, Masoud Mir-Kazemi, a conservative, was a member of the Islamic Consultative Assembly, CEO of Etka Stores owned by the Armed Forces, and Minister of Commerce and Minister of Oil in Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s government, while Mohammad-Bagher Nobakht was the Vice President and head of the Planning and Budget Organization in Hassan Rouhani’s governments. Mir-Kazemi, like his colleagues, supported the resistance economy and reducing dependency on foreign resources and imposed new taxes to increase government revenue in his first hundred days as the head of the Planning and Budget Organization.
Nobakht had a more open approach to foreign investment and international interaction and, as the primary budget planner, proposed plans to eliminate unnecessary costs, adjust and target energy subsidies, improve efficiency in construction projects, and strengthen the monitoring system to reduce pressure on the public budget. Both ministers, with different policies, sought to reduce budget costs. Mir-Kazemi launched monitoring systems, and Nobakht reformed the budget structure.
According to Statistics
Examining the hundred-day economic record of Masoud Pezeshkian’s government is incomplete without statistical analysis, although finding hundred-day statistics is not easy, especially comparing it with the record of the previous government of Ebrahim Raisi. The table below shows a statistical comparison of the hundred-day government record in terms of inflation, unemployment, misery, and the dollar price.
Both governments achieved results in reducing inflation, unemployment, and misery rates, but Pezeshkian’s government reduced inflation and misery rates more quickly. Conversely, the dollar rate increased more during both periods, and more so during Pezeshkian’s period. It seems that improving economic statistics in the Islamic Republic does not prevent the increase in the dollar price or, in other words, the depreciation of the rial.
Final Words
In his first hundred days of governance, Ebrahim Raisi adopted resistance against globalization, which was aligned with the leader’s view, and for this, he dismissed many officials and replaced them with supporters of a state-run economy and opponents of joining the FATF.
Masoud Pezeshkian, in his first hundred days, was apprehensive about a war with Israel and awaited the outcome of the U.S. elections, and for this reason, did nothing more than timely presenting the budget bill. His economic team members were older than their counterparts in Raisi’s government and were in favor of trade with the world and reopening the economy, but Pezeshkian also retained managers supportive of the resistance economy from Raisi’s era. He has repeatedly stated that his government’s policy follows the guidance of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic.
The hundred-day economic record of Masoud Pezeshkian’s government presents a prospect similar to that of Hassan Rouhani’s government, indicating that even reforms allied with the government cannot be implemented in the Islamic Republic. Therefore, it is believed that by the end of Pezeshkian’s government, production will remain stagnant, inflation will rise, the banking network will become more indebted, poverty will spread, pension funds will become more cash-strapped, and the dollar will become more expensive, especially since with Donald Trump being elected as the President of the United States, the likelihood of lifting sanctions is much less than before.