Recommendations of the Architect of Sanctions to Trump
Recommendations of the Architect of Sanctions to Trump
Richard Nephew, an American foreign policy expert known as the architect of sanctions against the Islamic Republic, says Donald Trump should give diplomacy with Iran one last chance while also preparing to use military force. Mr. Nephew wrote in an article published in Foreign Affairs on January 3rd that given the dangers of military action, the United States should make a final and sincere effort at the start of Trump’s term to negotiate to halt Tehran’s nuclear program.
Richard Nephew also added that caution dictates Washington should now start planning for military action and ensure that Iran takes this threat seriously. Mr. Nephew, who was previously a member of the U.S. negotiating team during nuclear talks with Iran and global powers, emphasized that an attack that destroys the Natanz base and other Iranian nuclear sites will not end the problem, just as the death of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh in 2020 and attacks on Iran’s centrifuge production facilities in 2021 did not end the problem.
Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, whom Israel’s Prime Minister referred to as the father of Iran’s nuclear bomb two and a half years before his assassination, was killed on November 27, 2020, in an attack on his car on a road near Tehran. Richard Nephew, who was the director of the Iran desk at the U.S. National Security Council during Barack Obama’s presidency, wrote in his article that the United States might have to continually attack Iran to permanently suppress its nuclear ambitions or launch a bigger attack to eliminate elements of Iran’s security forces or regime.
He then argues that if these attacks occur, it is hard to imagine that the Islamic Republic would quickly turn to diplomacy unless there is a change in Iran’s government. This senior researcher at Columbia University further added that the negotiations in 2021 and 2022 to bring the United States and Iran back to full compliance with the JCPOA nuclear agreement failed because Iran did not trust the United States and was concerned that if Republicans came to power in America, the new president might not adhere to the agreement.
However, he added that if Trump himself agrees to a new deal, Iran might believe that this agreement will be sustainable. During his recent election campaign, Donald Trump repeatedly emphasized reinstating the so-called maximum pressure policy against the Islamic Republic of Iran and criticized the 2015 global powers’ agreement with Iran for not including the missile program and destabilizing activities in the Middle East.
Richard Nephew, who was a senior sanctions expert in the negotiations with Iran between 2013 and 2014, says that if the United States uses the maximum pressure approach to soften Iran in subsequent negotiations, Iran might react by hiding its nuclear materials, building a bomb, withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, or all three. He wrote that if efforts to reach an agreement fail, the United States should be prepared to use military force.
According to Mr. Nephew, in this case, Iran should, while still under sanctions, simultaneously focus on rebuilding its nuclear program, rebuilding Hezbollah, renewing its missile capabilities, and managing the country’s economic problems. Richard Nephew stated that the Iranian government must make real decisions about its strategic path, as the country has lost all its major deterrence systems and methods and can no longer turn to nuclear weapons as a cheap and quick option to regain this deterrence.
He also wrote that if U.S. attacks on Iran occur, the Islamic Republic might receive limited support among the Iranian people, and there is a possibility that the Iranian people, depending on the extent of targeting and collateral damage of these attacks, might see it as an opportunity for regime change. Mr. Nephew concluded his article for Foreign Affairs by stating that the blows Iran has received from Israel, along with its struggling economy, may already be sufficient for the country to pursue a nuclear path.
In response to the killing of Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a senior commander of the Quds Force in Syria, the Islamic Republic of Iran attacked Israel with missiles and drones on April 14, and on October 2, in reaction to the killing of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and the killing of Hassan Nasrallah and Abbas Nilforoushan, Zahedi’s deputy in Lebanon, targeted Israel with 181 ballistic missiles.
In response to these attacks, Israel conducted attacks on Iran on October 27, which Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claims resulted in the destruction of several military centers and also eliminated the air defense capabilities of the Islamic Republic. Richard Nephew recommended in his article that U.S. policymakers should direct their calculations toward the inevitability of Iran building nuclear weapons and must manage it, warning that there is limited time to prevent reaching this point and Washington should consider severe actions.