Erdogan’s Double Game with Iran
Erdogan’s Double Game with Iran
Perhaps now, after regional developments following Operation Aqsa Storm and what has recently befallen Ukraine and Zelensky, one can consider the cliché that the logic of power and the law of the jungle govern international relations as the definitive manifesto and paradigm of international relations. A framework and model where every country seeks to dominate, expand, consolidate, and extend its power over other countries by any means possible, and in such relations, any unnecessary leniency and restraint ultimately harms practical interests and emboldens enemies.
There is Ukraine, where two global powers are dividing its spoils at a bilateral negotiation table, not even allowing the head of the state in question to attend the negotiations. Or a bit further, contrary to all conventions, customs, and legal rules, the Israeli Prime Minister, who has occupied hundreds of kilometers of Syrian territory, warns the new rulers to evacuate a major part of Syria’s strategic and geopolitical areas.
Most interestingly, amid all these upheavals, Turkey’s Foreign Minister addresses Iran, warning and alerting that there is a capability for other countries to create unrest within Iran.
If Hakan Fidan’s intention is Turkey’s reciprocal response to the claim of Iran’s support for Kurdish opposition groups, which in recent years and months has not seen any change in approach or significant development based on such an assumption, except that Iran was the first country to react positively and support the PKK’s proposal to lay down arms, suggested by Abdullah Öcalan.
Over the past decade, despite everyone knowing that the main and sole logistical support and oil trade axis for the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, known as ISIS, was conducted through Turkey, Iran never implicitly or explicitly addressed Turkey. Even in the Astana talks and after victories in Syria’s field developments, Iran accepted Turkey as a representative of the Syrian opposition, quite the opposite of what Turkey did after Assad’s fall and, despite the presence of all regional countries, did not consider any position for Iran.
Interestingly, during the 2016 Turkey coup attempt, Iran went all out for Erdogan’s government, utilizing its geopolitical position at the height of the crisis to rapidly shift the balance of power.
In contrast, the only positive action Turkey has taken towards Iran in recent decades has been facilitating economic exchanges under sanctions, from which it has also significantly benefited, and as the saying goes, has not done Iran any favors.
Now, the question arises as to why the Turkish Foreign Minister makes such unprecedented hostile and unfriendly statements against Iran. Turks have always structured and outlined their relations with Iran based on interests and the logic of power. Erdogan’s Turkey harbors aspirations of reviving the Ottoman Empire and seeks to expand regional power and assume leadership of the Islamic world, viewing relations with Iran within this framework.
In bilateral relations over the past few months, no noticeable or tangible shift has occurred except that Turks, in their view, have replaced Iran in Syria and now feel superior. Meanwhile, the current rulers of Damascus, under Ankara’s protection, show weakness and submission in the face of Israel and also against the Syrian Kurdish opposition, unable to present Turks as leaders of the Islamic world against Arab rivals.
Domestically, pressure from critics and the threat of opposition parties gaining power have increased. With the PKK laying down arms, Kurds can no longer be suppressed under this pretext or made into a bogeyman.
The Syrian quagmire also entails additional costs, and the end of the Ukraine war could reduce Turkey’s specific transit advantages in recent years. Here, Erdogan’s government throws stones at Iran to divert public attention from the destructive role of its lofty ambitions in the region towards Iran, which he perceives as having a low wall due to recent developments and being indebted to Turkey for escaping the circle of sanctions. This is a point that needs to be addressed explicitly, setting aside customary considerations and unnecessary formalities, and neutralizing Erdogan’s snakes and ladders game against Iran once and for all, discarding it in the dustbin of regional and international relations.