It is decision time
It is decision time
On the anniversary of the Iranian Revolution’s victory, some may feel pride from Donald Trump’s recent statements describing Iran as a powerful country, but these remarks neither convince the Iranian people, who are under economic pressure, nor Iran’s supporters abroad, who witness the country’s weakening due to recent regional developments.
In fact, Iran’s economy experienced one of its worst years in 2024, a tough year for the people.
Geopolitically, most of Iran’s proxy groups abroad have been weakened. Hezbollah in Lebanon has been harmed, Bashar al-Assad’s Syria has fallen into the hands of an extremist Islamist ISIS, and the Gaza Strip has turned into ruins.
Iran’s position has been severely damaged with the weakening of its allies.
There is no longer a possibility of sending weapons to Hezbollah via land routes, and in addition, Iran’s financial constraints prevent the funding of this group.
Everyone knows that in the absence of financial resources, loyalties change quickly.
Understanding these conditions, the President of Lebanon immediately traveled to Saudi Arabia after being elected to declare allegiance to this country and request financial aid.
Tehran’s position in the Arab world has also been tarnished.
The humiliating escape of Bashar al-Assad to Moscow has certainly affected Iran’s influence in the region and quickly handed its position over to its enemies, namely Saudi Arabia and Turkey.
The argument that Iran must fight outside its borders so it doesn’t have to face its enemies within the country has now lost its meaning.
From the West’s perspective, this fragile condition will lead the US and Europe to increase pressure on Iran.
The dissatisfaction of the Iranian people due to the country’s economic crisis is another factor contributing to this fragility.
Domestically, the people’s concerns have become apparent.
Widespread power outages in Iran’s major cities during a very cold winter, factory closures due to these outages, and an unprecedented drop in the value of the rial against the dollar indicate the severity of the economic situation in a country with the largest gas resources and the third-largest oil reserves in the world.
Worse still, one-third of the population lives below the poverty line, and hope for the future is fading.
The desire to leave the country among Iranian youth has never been this high.
In the face of this crisis, instead of taking comfort in Trump’s compliments, the Iranian government knows well that there is no salvation in the East, and Russia and China are merely mirages.
In fact, Beijing has recently reduced its oil purchases from Iran by 25%, bringing the country’s oil exports to 15 million barrels.
China’s unfulfilled promises of investing hundreds of billions of dollars in Iran’s economy and Russia’s military support for Tehran should make Iranian policymakers think. Apparently, Iran has no choice but to move towards a comprehensive agreement with the international community, an agreement in which some of their demands are accepted in exchange for the lifting of US and other sanctions.